alex ursa

149 posts

alex ursa

alex ursa

@alexursa

COO @betr

Katılım Kasım 2023
63 Takip Edilen37 Takipçiler
alex ursa
alex ursa@alexursa·
I would say that if this was a institutional approach (à la Airton Risk) where companies with real skin in the game (sponsors, companies that have economic implications etc) where they can hedge then yes, I think then this would not be labeled as gambling. But everyone in the industry is going in this route (CFTC) because it’s an easier way to offer their products and make it as a company. Alex, your product is great, my assumptions is the reason you want to get a DCM approval and go national is to scale this great product to millions of people and not to offer some kind of way to get ahead
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Alex Kane
Alex Kane@a_kane47·
@DustinGouker This is a fair point. Perhaps there could be an evolution towards a more honest reason why they are saying what they offer isn’t gambling.
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Alex Kane
Alex Kane@a_kane47·
I like a lot of Dan’s reporting, but this angle is tired. It’s super easy to dunk on Kalshi/others when they refuse to call the activity sports betting. A new and refreshing angle would explore why categorizing Kalshi’s activity as “sports gambling” presents a trap door of ill-fitting state regulation that would completely erase the concept of an open, transparent, federal exchange model.
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_

EXCLUSIVE: Kalshi classified itself as a sports gambling product in a trademark filing for the term "prediction market." That's despite the company's public stance being that it has nothing to do with gambling.

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alex ursa
alex ursa@alexursa·
@DustinGouker You end up have a pile in a corner. One day you can play the farm game
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Dustin Gouker
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker·
Coming to the realization I have spent the GDP of small counties buying stuffed animals for my daughter every time I travel for work.
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dash
dash@datadashboards·
Prediction Market Notional Volume Recap (2026-03 vs 2026-02) 2026-03: $25.7B | 2026-02: $23.2B • Kalshi: $13.1B (+25.2% MoM) • Polymarket: $10.6B (+33.1% MoM) • Crypto(.)com: $629.7M (+58.5% MoM) • Opinion: $496.2M (-84.0% MoM) • Limitless: $464.5M (+25.2% MoM) • Predict: $329.7M (-58.0% MoM) • Myriad: $60.4M (-51.7% MoM) • IBKR: $41.2M (-35.0% MoM) • Gemini: $19.0M (+1932.1% MoM) • Overtime: $17.9M (+2.4% MoM) • Total: $25.7B (+10.6% MoM)
dash tweet media
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Dan Bernstein
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_·
By definition of how prediction market exchanges with fees work, this is impossible.
Dan Bernstein tweet media
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alex ursa
alex ursa@alexursa·
@Nostroah that is not a lot (when you look at Kalshi & march).
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alex ursa
alex ursa@alexursa·
@c_mykins @AlexH_Johnson The just integrated to Kalshi to allow cash app users to deposit there. I’m betting on a Starbucks coffee they will do it in 2026
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CM
CM@c_mykins·
@alexursa @AlexH_Johnson I don’t know Jack but if I had to guess… if it were ever to get to that point (and I don’t think it will), he will leave
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dash
dash@datadashboards·
Four major prediction markets are set to hit new monthly volume highs: Kalshi - $12B+ Polymarket - $10B+ Crypto(.)com - $0.55B+ Limitless - $0.45B+ Kalshi is up ~10% vs its previous ATH, while the others are on track for 25%+ growth.
dash tweet media
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SteveBrubaker
SteveBrubaker@stevebrubaker·
@alexursa My bad. 2 different uses of the word. PMs post a player for a tournament wanting you to bet on it. If the player later WDs, you eat the bet, but they often keep posting the player for more bets. Should be prohibited. Taking my money off the site? No probs. Quick and efficient.
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SteveBrubaker
SteveBrubaker@stevebrubaker·
Let’s have an honest discussion about PMs and OSBs. I have been playing Kalshi and the DK/FD PMs to learn about them. Same as I did OSBs when they first started. Remember what a total pile of shit William Hill was when Caesar’s rolled that platform out? Like DK & FD PMs started.>
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SteveBrubaker
SteveBrubaker@stevebrubaker·
And PMs, cut the shit on stealing bettor money on withdrawals. Kalshi hit me twice this week on two Aaron Rai bets. I pulled most of my money off that site after that. Fast at withdrawals BTW. I pulled most of my money off DK/FD PMs too primarily for lack of markets on the PGA.>
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Jason Rome
Jason Rome@rome_jason·
@alexursa @SteveRuddock they were both spacs that started at $10 so in this instance head to head comparisons do make sense
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Steve Ruddock
Steve Ruddock@SteveRuddock·
Anyone predicting RSI would have a higher stock price than DK a year ago would have been laughed off the platform and made a fortune on prediction markets
Blackmrprophet74, CPA@Blackmrphophet

Based on today market closing, @RSInteractive_ stock price is currently higher than $DKNG. $RSI management execution has resulted in positive gains for investors, sadly, #draftkings investors continue to believe Mr. Robins lack of disciple business model. @stevebrubaker

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alex ursa
alex ursa@alexursa·
@SteveRuddock I get that but things can happen (split, reverse splits etc) so I would still not look at that
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Steve Ruddock
Steve Ruddock@SteveRuddock·
@alexursa Look at the two stock prices a year ago. That they are trading at the same price was not anyone's bingo card. $10ish and $35-$40.
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alex ursa
alex ursa@alexursa·
@SteveRuddock No, but comparing share price of two companies that have different market cap and different number of outstanding shares is like comparing water with balls
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alex ursa
alex ursa@alexursa·
@a_kane47 Alex, you are very smart, very smart but you are naive to think Kalshi will just not try to make sure they monetise parlays
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Dustin Gouker
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker·
I can’t wait for Republicans to learn this stuff exists
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Cinema Tweets
Cinema Tweets@CinemaTweets1·
After seeing #ProjectHailMary a second time in theaters late last night, I think it’s a better film than The Martian- and I love & post about The Martian as much as anyone. Both films share a great level of optimism & both films have awesome lead performances. I give PHM the edge
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