PetroDollar

Now that the OPEC+ meeting finished, can we go back to watching how fast Cushing fills up? #WTI #CL_F #OOTT

@_BTCStrategist @zerohedge @grok producers are hedging future production at higher prices. nothing new, nothing to see here….

@zerohedge @grok explain this graph in simple terms

You'll never guess what oil producers are doing right now

@KobeissiLetter US treasury selling their gold to fund their oil shorts and equity longs? 🤔

Something very strange is happening in precious metals right now: In just 3 hours, gold and silver just erased a combined -$2 TRILLION in market cap. Meanwhile, oil prices have erased their gains on the day and US stock market futures are nearly green. Since the Iran War began, such a reversal in oil and equities has almost always sent gold prices higher. So, what just happened? The sporadic moves in price could signal that a potential large player in the space is being liquidated. But more importantly, the persistent move higher in the 10Y Note Yield, which is now at 4.40% and up +45 bps in 3 weeks, is beginning to weigh on various asset classes. Combine this with headline fatigue and "pockets" of illiquidity in the market, and the massive gaps to both directions are only growing. Something big is happening metals markets right now.

@Scaramucci i presnt to you, a moron of the highest degree.

Here’s the question nobody in Washington is asking about the Diego Garcia strike: how did Iran know exactly where to aim? They don’t have satellite coverage of the Indian Ocean. Someone gave them the targeting data. Who? And what does that make this war?

@IliaBouchouev yeah - but hedging before your bid is accepted is taking blind spread risk for a week or more, so not sure its that. I think NYfed is protecting prompt from $100 at the expense of the back. #oott

Over the last 24hr: spot oil is down $4, dec 27 up $1 - as explained yest, all SPR hedging. It should stop at the close today when the final bids are due. I'm getting less convinced now that all SPR bbls will be taken as economics gets fuzzier. Will do calcs later. #oott

@KellyAlspals @Amena__Bakr too many “reporters” straying so far out of their lanes!

@alstopp @Amena__Bakr you can say these things without being a smart arse.

Call it false messaging. Call it market manipulation. Call it desperate temporary measures. The reality is this: a massive disruption in the oil market will ripple through the global economy. Energy prices don’t stay isolated for too long. When will the conflict end? No one knows. #OOTT

@brettmacro nice work!

I asked Claude to build an 8 week US economic model for the Hormuz Strait closure. Then I asked Grok and Gemini to fact check the prediction. Accuracy rating Grok: 78% Gemini: 95% Each model then predicted on how much longer the Strait remains in the current status: Claude: 6-8 weeks Grok: 6 weeks (with normalcy returning end of May) Gemini: 6 weeks (The predictions are based purely on the Hormuz Strait remaining in its current state & closed to US and US allies)

@JackRyanlives looks like a crude distillation unit to me. ie oil refinery

The only fire really visible in Israel is south of Lod. It looks like it might be the Nesher industry zone.

@sandeepvbelure @weakinstrument prob because fox news says we’re winning. and most American traders just watching Fox!

@alstopp @weakinstrument Then what's the probable reason for price being below $120 or $150 per bbl inflation adjusted?

1/N There's a lot of chatter about whether Treasury is selling oil futures to suppress prices. This tweet belongs in a museum (complimentary) because of how succinctly it states how stupid of an idea it would be. There's a lot in there, so let me unpack it from the beginning.

@investingLive_ greatest as in - lost the greatest amounts of money! look it up…

One of the greatest oil traders of all time thinks the Treasury was in the market

@weakinstrument april/may wti spread only 0.90/bbl presently. def not extremely backwardated. doesnt even cover tank + financing costs. the fact that the spread is coming in seems to be a signal that they are not in the market

End/ Selling futures to try and dampen prices won’t do anything to obviate the physical supply crisis of 10M+ missing bbls. But it is a very stupid idea, and given the Admin’s propensity to do stupid things when it comes to Iran, anything’s possible.

@BrownTexasNinja watch NIY Jap futures theyll lead the way

What time does limit down occur?

poeple that whatch cl-usdc over the weekend - have a look at how much has traded in the first 30 min of today's open - its meaningless. and why is it trading $2 under CL nymex ?

@BetoNdogz @Eng_china5 If an oil tanker is a freight truck, then an aircraft carrier is a Porsche

@Eng_china5 Carrier usually has right of way because of limited maneuverability which would explain why Chinese ship asked for it to speed up because they looked to be on intersecting collision course...

A Chinese merchant ship spotted the United States Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and asked whether the carrier would speed up. The United States military replied that it would not. However, after the Chinese ship accelerated, the United States carrier also began to speed up, staying right behind the Chinese merchant ship. A simple question: does using a Chinese civilian vessel as a shield violate international law?

@biancoresearch dont just look at the ships. look at the load ports. if its “allied” ie GCC, its getting attacked. why is everyone missing this?

This is the Rubymar. It sank in March 2024 in the Bab el-Mandeb after the Houthis said they were targeting only U.S., U.K., and Israeli-linked ships. * Belize flag * Marshall Islands owner, with a UK address on its papers * Lebanese management * Unclear insurance * Saudi commercial link * Bound for Bulgaria with fertilizer cargo This is the problem with the “test” Iran is now proposing: what exactly is a U.S., Israeli, or allied ship? Do they mean: * the country whose flag it flies? * the country of ownership? * the country of management? * the country of insurance? * the country of commercial links? * the origin or destination of the cargo? Once you run down that list, a huge share of global shipping has some U.S., U.K., or Israeli lineage somewhere in the chain. Russian, Iranian, and Chinese shipping may pass that test more easily. But those ships were already moving this week anyway. So, what has really changed here? Not the risk. Just the branding.

Remember that just yesterday, Tehran was reportedly floating a completely different condition: cargo paid in yuan. Today, it’s “any country except the U.S. and Israel can pass.” That is not a reopening. It is evidence the rules are being improvised in real time. And two days ago, on March 12, Iran tried to pose as reasonable by saying ships must coordinate with its navy to transit. Reuters also reported other selective assurances for passage, including a vessel changing its signaling to “China-owner” to get through. We’ve seen this before. During the Red Sea crisis in 2024, the Houthis offered similarly selective assurances in Bab el-Mandeb. In practice, it was confusing, chaotic, and did little to restore the normal flow of ships. Reuters reported that many vessels caught up in those attacks had no Israeli connection, and UNCTAD said Suez Canal transits fell 42% from peak levels. Shipping does not normalize because of slogans. It normalizes when passage is clear, verifiable, insurable, and durable. Right now, it is none of those things. So this is not Iran loosening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s PR spin designed to sound reasonable. Until owners, crews, charterers, and insurers can move without ad hoc political tests or special permission, the Strait remains squeezed.

@ethanrkho or maybe theyre trading oil in Asia during the Asian seasion like they have done for decades? lol who listens to these guys????

For a moment, Polymarket was the best real-time read on Iran anyone had. That moment didn't last. Greg Newman — Founder, Onyx Capital Group. World's largest oil derivatives liquidity provider. "To begin with it was great. No one in any other way would be incentivized to tell you what's really going on. Someone has information, they want to trade it — that finds its way into the ecosystem. That's the good part of capitalism." "Then we realized the way it's settled is just not ideal. You have to own a big portion of the tokens to decide. Who decides is as important as anything else. It kind of lost its gravitas quite quickly." "When someone has good information, they don't know when it's going to kick off. So they want the straddle. They want convexity. Options open interest at key times became a better indication than anything else." "The oil market is normally dead after 7:30 PM. It's been very, very active around those hours. Why are you trading at night? There's no other reason — other than maybe you've got the information."

@orrdavid your looking at april wti vs May Brent. May WTI is 109.75 presently, May (front) Brent is 115.75 - $6 spread. Still not wide enough to arb WTI to Rotterdam on Aframax tanker however. Needs to be north of $8.50

Why is WTI roughly equal Brent? It seems like the gap should have widened, not narrowed? What am I missing?

@zerohedge @ENERGY Not enough juice

Hello @ENERGY it's time to open the SPR

@zerohedge @ENERGY

the strategic mid-term reserve? wont help much for very long. Biden’s release after Ukraine war peaked around 1 million/day. how much will that change the needle? and with only ~400 million SPR remaining, after a year it’ll be gone. And that 1 million will all be exported - a-lot of it to unfriendlies

@profstonge please update usplease checka gain after Mondays close. you will be saying something different

In case you're curious how long the war lasts. Oil futures think the war will start winding down in May -- that's the 2 months Trump's promising. With prices back down in the 70's by September. Given Midterms are November, sounds about right.