Amensch

316 posts

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Amensch

Amensch

@amensch__

Interested in chess, deflationary economics, and race science

Katılım Haziran 2024
313 Takip Edilen18 Takipçiler
Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@hasanthehun He was never invited and would never be. The mainstream is more okay with you than him, shows you who the real threat is.
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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@escapefrommelos I can certainly take the time away from my other scientific endeavors to *empirically* check the vaginal lubrication/nipples hardening part. Put me in coach!
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Melian Refugee
Melian Refugee@escapefrommelos·
you can see secondary sexual responses—pupils widening, nipples hardening—as she gets attention from photographers a brave behavioral scientist/biologist needs to measure this empirically… heart rate, skin flush, vaginal lubrication, in women “getting attention” from a crowd
FARANDULA@farandulArgOK

"MOSTRÁ LA ESPALDA" Periodistas internacionales le pedían a Antonela Rocuzzo que gire para unas fotos, y ella cumplió 👑🇦🇷

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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@QuasLacrimas I agree that currently Magnus's Elo is mostly fair given his level, but Elo can rank players much better the more games each one plays. Do you agree that a minimum activity requirement should be added to the system?
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tantum
tantum@QuasLacrimas·
@amensch__ If he literally never played, sure. But he plays Norway Chess every year. If he were already as weak as Hans he would lose 22+ points a year. It will take a few years to stabilize, but it will be unmistakable.
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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@7didane c'est techniquement impossible d'avoir des datacenters IA green. L'entrainement des modèles est très fragile et requiert un flow d'éléctricité sans interruption. Aucun des leaders IA n'essaye ce genre de projets qui va certainement échoué comme ses prédécesseurs (NOOR etc)
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7didane
7didane@7didane·
Si j’ai bien compris "l’avantage concurrentiel du Maroc c’est l’énergie". Ca serait bien de l’utiliser déjà pour un dessalement et des engrais à des coûts qui défient toute concurrence. Bon bref. Koulchi tale9ha et en même temps personne n’écoute.
Médias24@Medias24

Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni : "Je ne cherche pas à être un poids plume face à des poids lourds" @AmalElfallah Ministre de la Transition numérique et de la Réforme de l'administration, lors de l'édition spéciale du 12/13 de Médias24 au @GITEXAfrica Extrait de l'émission du 08 avril 2026.

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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@AcademicAgent_X is TPUSA dead then? The version of it where donors have full control can't sustain itself anymore
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Amensch retweetledi
LindyMan
LindyMan@PaulSkallas·
One thing about the pope is that if they abolished his position it would never come back. A global religious authority would not emerge in this world. It has to come from the past. Moderns are unable to create that type of institution. The muslims got rid of their caliph and are unable to bring him back as one example. There's a lot of things that we can't bring back if they disappeared. Even pre world war 2 neighborhoods. Or old cities. There are things we can't actually do anymore.
CBS News@CBSNews

Pope Leo says he has "no fear of the Trump administration" after he was asked about President Trump's Truth Social post calling the pontiff "weak on crime, and terrible for foreign policy." "We are not politicians, we don't deal with foreign policy with the same perspective he might understand it, but I do believe in the message of the Gospel, blessed are the peacemakers."

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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@AcademicAgent_X either he goes for the blockade, risks global recession + angering the chinese and all his allies, or he doesn't and look weak unable to deliver on his promises. Low IQ indeed
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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@ripplebrain either he does it or not, both cases are bad for him. he really lost control
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Amerikanets 📉
Amerikanets 📉@ripplebrain·
@amensch__ It's probably a bluff. But the insanity of it is that if the markets take him seriously, it'll be a disaster.
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Amerikanets 📉
Amerikanets 📉@ripplebrain·
Just taking a step back to appreciate the strategic double bind Trump is in: - If he gives into Iranian demands, the Democrats will crush him with his own rhetoric, portray him as weak, point out that "gave more money" to Iran than Obama did. The Iranians are holding firm in their demands and refusing to give in to pressure. The Israelis can blow up a deal at any moment, and Trump is clearly too weak to restrain them. - If he escalates he'll just double down on being responsible for sending gas to $6+ dollars a gallon and triggering a global economic depression. The longer the war drags out, the worse it'll be. There's no clear path to victory, and any deal he might be able to put together at a later date is likely to be even less favorable than the one he just refused. He's chosen to resolve this, apparently, by accelerating the negative economic effects of the war without directly attacking Iran. It makes no sense because there's no way out of this trap. This conflict is probably the most egregious unforced foreign policy error in American history.
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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@phl43 even Iran is using dollar stable coins to charge tolls
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Philippe Lemoine
Philippe Lemoine@phl43·
I think the probability of something like this is essentially zero. People don't understand how devastating being cut off from the dollar system is and how much power this gives the US. Not even US officials understood it until they started using that power more aggressively after 9/11 and were surprised by how strong the response of foreign banks and companies was. The dollar is still king and there is simply no viable alternative at the moment for countries who want to participate in the global economy. We've seen that in 2018 when Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and crushed the attempt by Europeans to stay in it. What is going to happen is that, if the war doesn't end soon and Hormuz stays closed (which is very likely in my opinion), the US will grant temporary exemptions to countries that need to be able to transact with Iran to give them some relief on the energy front, but if as is also likely in my view the war doesn't end with a complete lifting of sanctions against Iran the US will remove those exemptions and everyone will be forced to avoid dealing with Iran again. This war is a massive blunder for the US, but it won't kill the dollar's supremacy, because it won't affect the fundamentals that explain it.
Amerikanets 📉@ripplebrain

The big risk to the US here is the collapse of the global sanctions-based order through attrition. What happens if the rest of the world starts violating sanctions out of sheer necessity? I wonder how much of Trump's recent threats w/r/t Europe are really motivated by this, rather than some fanciful idea of European ships opening the strait on their own.

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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@phl43 @TheSloppyFatBoy I can't see him agreeing to a deal rn if he didn't go for the last and much better one. War will resume either in a few weeks or after the midterms after restocking. His presidency will be just Iran war every year. Sad
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Philippe Lemoine
Philippe Lemoine@phl43·
@TheSloppyFatBoy He did blink but I think unfortunately Dubowitz is right that people underestimate the probability that he’ll resume the war. Of course he thinks that’s a good thing because he’s insane.
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Philippe Lemoine
Philippe Lemoine@phl43·
It pains me to say this, but for once, I think he is right.
Mark Dubowitz@mdubowitz

At times, since Trump came into office in 2017, I’ve had serious reservations about his willingness to follow through on Iran. I was proven wrong. Are we underrating Trump on Iran yet again? At each key moment, many have assumed he would blink, and at each key moment he has escalated. He withdrew from the JCPOA, killed Suleimani, imposed massive sanctions pressure — and then restored the pressure that Biden had lifted — struck Iran in the 12-Day War in June, and then sustained a 40-day campaign in this war. In over four years, he has tried repeatedly to make a deal with Iran. They’ve rebuffed him and paid a severe price. Now he takes a two-week pause, lays down 15 demands, and warns that if there is no acceptable deal, including on Hormuz, military action resumes. Perhaps he is not blinking. Perhaps it’s not TACO. Perhaps it is coercive diplomacy backed by force. Perhaps he will return to major military operations with even more force if diplomacy fails. And, on Hormuz, are we writing the ending before the story is finished? CENTCOM has not stumbled blindly into this. With strong support from the IDF, it has been moving methodically through the Iranian battle-space with astounding results against the regime’s war-making and repression capabilities. Perhaps CENTCOM is preparing for the next stages of military operations including in Hormuz. Perhaps it won’t happen and won’t work. But perhaps the Battle of Hormuz is just entering the next stages. Given how often many of us, including me, have predicted Trump would cave to the regime in Iran and been wrong, why are we so certain this time he won’t follow through?

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Amensch
Amensch@amensch__·
@phl43 yeah sorry i missed it. just reread Dubowitz's tweet. Agree Trump will likely go back to war in a few days
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blackstar
blackstar@blackstarops·
a stasi operative photographs a CIA operative who is photographing him back (1960s)
blackstar tweet media
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