Ames Davis

@MesoCellWx As someone who lives in the metro, I’ve learned to not trust models when they favor intense snow or severe weather over the metro. We always get snubbed! Either to our north or south. I’m not too disappointed in this storm though, it’s a reminder that true spring is a ways out.

Sadly the streak continues of no double digit storms for me... The storm ended up south of most model guidance from yesterday and days before causing lower amounts. Looking back at yesterday mornings models runs, out of every model only 2 models picked up on this trend early. The ECMWF-AIFS and MOGREPS-G out performed nearly every model (in placement of heaviest band) we have including mesoscale models which are supposed to perform great under the extreme banding we saw last night. The ECMWF-AIFS has performed remarkably well with each storm that has occurred this winter so this is not a huge shock tbh. Another 1-5 can be expected for the rest of today across central MN into SE MN into tonight but will be very hard to measure with the heavy wind. Still expect most of metro to end up with 11-14 inches out of this whole event if measured correctly.

@MarcTwinCities I noticed that the rain and snow on the MN/IA border is pushing north, hopefully this will nudge some heavier snow in the direction of the Twin Cities with time.

Hmmm🤨

@ryanhallyall union lake union city Michigan

POSSIBLE DERECHO MONDAY across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest! This includes Minneapolis-St. Paul! Plan for the POTENTIAL of hurricane-force winds. (Thunderstorms/storm complexes are difficult to forecast, but current model guidance is concerning.) A "heat dome" pattern is baking the Plains with hot, humid air. Heat index values over 110 degrees have been common. The heat dome has shunted the jet stream north. "Ridge runner" storms have been straddling the northern edge of the heat dome, feeding off the heat and humidity and tapping into jet stream winds. High-resolution model data from Sunday night suggests the potential for a derecho – or a squall line with widespread destructive winds gusting 80 to 100 mph. A few scattered tornadoes may form too. Initial storms, including a couple rotating supercells with tornado potential, will likely form over western North Dakota during the early to mid afternoon. Those storms will blast east and congeal into one or more windy lines. The storms will grow tall enough to feel the jet stream, tapping into momentum and helping mix strong winds into the surface. The squall line may act like a "wave" of sorts, lifting warm, humid air and mixing cooler, drier air down to the surface. Lots can change, and it's unclear how this convective (thunderstorm) scenario may evolve – but please stay abreast of the weather and have multiple ways to be notified of warnings. Charge devices in case of power outages!

Wow! Check out these #PowerFlashes just now as a #SevereThunderstorm with up to 60mph winds approaches a Minneapolis, #Minnesota Live Cam. 😲#mnwx @NWSTwinCities

Cone tornado ongoing looking from a webcam in Minnetoka. @NWSTwinCities wyc.org/webcam

Wedge tornado Sheldon, ND 11:09pm #NDwx

Video from inside Lake City, AR of the wedge tornado moments ago 📹: Kyla Yancey

This is insane… everyone please stay safe. #arwx #tnwx #tornado

@NovakWeather @driftlessflyguy How much do you suspect for the Twin Cities specifically?

@driftlessflyguy for the area within the box. Totals will vary from one end of the box to the other.

Big SNOWS & strong WINDS are likely on the way for much of so. MN/WI on Friday into Saturday as a strong Winter Storm churns over the Midwest. After this storm departs, bitter COLD moves in by Sunday. Here is your extended outlook.