ana rath

16 months later: • Cursor: $3B annualized revenue w/ 500+ people • Lovable: $400M annualized revenue w/ 200+ people • Mercor: $1B annualized revenue w/ 300+ people

One pattern I've noticed a lot after moving to San Francisco is people here have vague social hierarchies (startup funded by Tier 1 VC, hang out with Thiel on weekends, etc.) whereas people on the East Coast have concrete social hierarchies (Harvard, Wharton, Goldman/JPM IB, etc.)

@tancool_ @NateWitkin Aren’t most of the harnesses reusable with just changing the context you feed it

@NateWitkin The other thing people ignore is that even in a rapid improvement scenario, the fixed cost of context engineering/harness engineering and evaluation can itself take many years to get to a semi autonomous state even for simple and medium workflows.

As time goes on, I become more and more confident in two key sources of AI forecasting error: 1. Overindexing on power-users. The majority of LLM users are about as likely to get a net-negative as a net-positive outcome from AI due to a mix of sycophancy, hallucination, workslop-related productivity decline, and plain distraction and misuse. This has large implications for macro outcomes (GDP, employment, productivity, etc.). 2. Underestimating political and cultural backlash. Only 46% of people are "willing to trust" LLMs (KPMG). Only 17% think Americans think AI will have a positive impact on the U.S. (Pew). Local opposition to data centers exploded in 2025. And the populist wings of both parties are gearing up to make AI opposition a pillar of their platforms in 2026 and beyond. And this is all before we've experienced any major AI-related disruptions. If we begin to see steeper employment declines or electricity price increases, even very concentrated ones, opposition will ramp up very fast, with potentially large impacts on both scaling and diffusion. Two takeaways. First, forecasts accounting neither for the average person's LLM use habits, nor the prospect for major sociopolitical backlash are incomplete and not to be taken at face value. Second, the most effective / powerful sorts of LLM use are and will continue to be concentrated among small, elite groups. Forecasting is therefore overweight on bloated 'what will AI do to society' questions and underweight on concrete 'will x group achieve y outcome' questions.

@tancool_ @alz_zyd_ Good point

@alz_zyd_ So what do you think that second tier should do with their lives now?

Hyperacceleration is already starting to happen in theory fields. A very small number of people, who are very talented, and also good at using AI to prove stuff, are increasingly going to run entire fields. The second-tier of researchers is going to become totally irrelevant

@lecclaren Interested!!!!

@ashdontlie Messaged you

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@StephieD__ Hi do you have any for today???

Selling 2 foor tickets row 3 section F :) send me an offer. Will meet at the venue at 7pm for Gracie Abrams tonight at msg !!!

@ashepmedia is the box office worth going to?

ISO 1 or 2 tickets for Gracie’s show at MSG n1 or n2. I’ve been in the box office since early today😭 🏷️ gracie abrams tsou deluxe tour nyc msg n1 n2 iso selling buying tickets

ISO 2 tickets for Gracie Abrams at MSG either night -- face value or near!! #GracieAbramsTourTickets #TSOUtour

@iinklyn very interested!

@Thelma59859192 very interested!

@Thenextantman @LiveFromALounge If someone has an emergency or business trip - pay for it! Dynamic pricing literally exists for that reason. Without it, tickets wouldn’t be available for such last minute purchases.

@jobergum @jxnlco “X is just Y and Z with a little bit of W” is an easy way to trivialise any field of work

@vikhyatk Coding is a trade masquerading as a science and most programmers just cannot accept this

Waiting to get upgraded to pit like…. 👀👀👀 find us in section 103 row BAR!! @SabrinaTourInfo @SabrinaAnnLynn #SeattleShortnSweet

What an awesome opener! @SabrinaTourInfo @SabrinaAnnLynn please please please upgrade us to pit we’re in section 103 row BAR 🫶🫶🫶 #SeattleShortnSweet

2 hours to go!!! @SabrinaTourInfo @SabrinaAnnLynn please please please upgrade us to pit we’re in section 103 row BAR 🫶🫶🫶 #SeattleShortnSweet

Aaaaand.. in line for early merch and the limited edition zine for @SabrinaAnnLynn @SabrinaTourInfo for #SeattleShortnSweet !! Please please please upgrade us we’re in obstructed view section 103 row BAR!!