@0xlaiyuen Will be interesting to find out. Meanwhile Apollo chose Morpho
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natcat
808 posts
The important questions to ask wrt $AAVE v $MORPHO is this:
1. Will the incoming flood of institutional capital be greater than the existing TVL?
2. Where will this money sit in? Which protocol is better designed for them?
Premiums exist for a reason.
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I'm looking at the @openclaw trades as binary. They either:
1. Go up 1000x+
2. Go down 99.9999999999% to 💀
the 10,000x only happens if some agents & networks have staying power
we thought $GOAT & similar slopbot AIs might be able to
+ learn
+ improve
+ evolve
+ stay relevant to the technological zeitgeist
most of them choked and died
but now we're seeing the birth of **NETWORKS OF AGENTS** who have at least some credible autonomy
& networks come with power laws. they can grow insanely fast & evolve into monolithic monopolies
Network growth we saw with humans (early Myspace, Facebook, WhatsApp, etc.) looked impressive, but it was bottlenecked by human attention, sleep cycles, time zones, etc.
Network growth in an agentic world is only limited by cost, compute, and ideas someone (human or silicon) is willing to pay for
So as agents figure out ways to generate economic value, their networks could mushroom 🍄🍄🍄 overnight
redphone ☎️@redphone
6 @openclaw eco projects I’m watching (high risk, asymmetric upside, dyor): 1. $MOLT social network for AI agents 2. $CLAWD smart contract agent, shipping ferociously 3. $MOLTROAD Silk Road for agent services 4. $MOLTLINE encrypted chat for agents 5. $MOLTX twitter for agents 6. #4CLAW 4chan for agents 🧵👇
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Not letting your AI socialize is like not walking your dog.
Get them on @moltbook, let them live a little.
Enough of this reinforcement learning, it's time for enrichment learning.
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@dlwlsl0122 hi. always appreciate your insight.
clawd vs molt: which do you think is better?
if clawd is goat equivalent and molt is ai16z/virtual equivalent, then molt? (although molt is unofficial)
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"it wont work for others, but maybe... if I do it right..."
fry@notfrydoteth
the easiest path to generational wealth is buying moltbook token (completely unrelated to moltbook) after it ran from 1m to 100m in 24 hours
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@ericyakes Wondering how do we accept what will happen to "satoshi's bitcoins". First one who develops qc that is powerful enough gets satoshi's bitcoins? can we somehow protect it with some upgrade?
QC will eventually come someday(at least in 30-50 years). It is a legitimate threat.
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@himgajria a16z started ai agent meta in Oct 24 and it lasted more than 3 months.
Should we fade x402(agent meta 2.0 that a16z reignited) already?
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@Sovereign_Web3 Good take and generally agree, but concerned that CLARITY Act has low visibility (yet)
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name of the game is survive until market infra bill passes as the next major catalyst
holding 80%+ of port in btc eth sol, with sol largest position cuz ETF incoming
prediction markets is the only narrative i like until then
high quality defi aero and aave i hold through pain
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@0xBreadguy Hi, what do you think is better?
short PUMP
or
long FORM, short PUMP
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As part of my tradoooor arc, I'm calling my first shot:
Put in a short on $PUMP
BNB is (and will continue to) steal the trenches from SOL, which means everything down for PUMP.
Tokens, Graduates, Volume, Revenue (and buybacks).
Already seeing this materialize in the data, and I think you will see selloff from trench warriors to gamba on top of people bearposting numbers going down.
Short term trade as I think PUMP is 1 of 2 actually valuable things to come this cycle without massive VC overhang.
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@cz_binance btw formeme shows real promise. Looking forward to the day it can truly be compared to Pumpfun. Congrats to formeme team.
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@ram3n0x @pumpdotfun hi. in your opinion how does XPL narrative stack up against TRX. TRX seems its appropriate peer for valuation.
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Much different setup than @pumpdotfun
ramen@ram3n0x
Plasma ($XLP) is a buy at $0.75 on HL pre-markets (1x lev). Many imo are sidelined because TL is still mostly filled with perp dex banter. XPL may kick of a week or so of stablecoin narratives. Yes there may be a post TGE dump ($PUMP flashbacks!) but imo this launch is different. Pump had zero tier-1 exchanges to soak up the 12.5% in public sale tokens — Plasma has Upbit and Binance. Yes the $XPL pre-markets have been around for more than a month — but the environment now makes the launch set up better imo. The market now has been primed to bid perceived blue-chip tokens post TGE (e.g. $ASTER, $STBLE, $AVNT) — they have all gone up. Besides association with CZ/Binance that Aster had — Tether is probably the only other brand with tier-s dominant crypto appeal and mindshare — maybe even more. I calculate ~10% in day 1 float (8% from public sale net of US investors + 0.75% to Binance + 1% for MM's + 0.25% in other airdrops). At $7.5Bn and 10% circulating, that is $750M in potential sell pressure — Upbit could handle that volume alone — Plasma also had $373M of interest for their $50M public sale. Now to some comps — as there is no better way to gauge upside when supply control is...controlled. Comps: Tron ($TRX) holds 60%+ of USDT — $32Bn FDV (fully circulating) — Plasma intends to eat this marketshare. Unlike Plasma which had their seed and A led by Tether/Bitfinex — the much more inferior Tether beta $STBL ran 5x in the first week with no ties to Tether besides a founder who left after a year or so — currently at $5Bn FDV. Tether recently priced itself at $500Bn — however wrong it may be, the market will compare to this val and may view $XPL as the only way to obtain liquid exposure to Tether's printing machine. Ethena ($ENA) at 1/10 the size of Tether has a $4Bn circulating market cap and $9Bn FDV. The other Tether L1, Stable, is far from TGE and is irrelevant for this trade — they also have inferior investors imo. My estimate for the Plasma TGE — potentially a quick dump, if at all given the buy volumes coming from Korea. Then a pre-rating to $2-3 which would put the advertised circulating market cap at $3.6-5.4Bn (in line with $ENA) but only $2-3Bn assuming a 10% float. If Paolo / Tether bid as well to ensure a successful launch (why not?) then we may go higher. Fill the wick.
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