andy martinez

@TheMarketThesis With a mind that operates at an exceptionally high-level like @anthonynoto's, I wouldn't rule out time travel capabilities 😂

@andizzro 🤣🤣his brain time traveled.

Great catching up, @Futurenvesting. Thanks for having me on to talk about our Q2 results, where we're headed, and why I've never been more confident in @SoFi

@Tim_Sweeney_TAR Love the insight, Tim. I always learn so much from your posts. Can't wait for the discussion with @stevenfiorillo, the last one was excellent. Appreciate all the time and knowledge you share.

$sofi MY $16 to $19 SOFI SHARE PRICE PREDICTION In February, the stock price was in the mid 20s, and I said get ready for a rough or brutal decline. Why? Partially the war, partiality inflation. But mostly because Sofi has really ramped spending on multiple new businesses, crypto, payments, stablecoins and big business banking, These were all of my earlier Trojan Horse predictions. I first said the stock would be pinned below 19 and then it would be in the $16-$19 range. I think it was about March 6th to 17th. It's been almost 5 months Between March 6, 2026, and today, July 30, 2026, there were 101 total closing days on Wall Street. Out of those 101 trading sessions, SoFi Technologies stock closed above $19 on 4 days (all concentrated in mid-to-late April, peaking at $19.50 on April 20) It closed below $16 on 19 days (distributed across late March, late April, and mid-May, with a low of $15.15 on March 30). Since the end of May, the stock price was between $16-19 every day until now except one day in the 15s and yesterday. This was very similar to my prediction in 2024 that the stock price would be stuck in the $6-$9 range. So what's the secret sauce? You have to understand sofi's business. And many of the tax and business metrics. Sofi typically has higher EPS in the third and fourth quarter, because their high wage earners, max out on social security after about half a year, and the company no longer has to pay its substantial share of their social security. Also, most companies do a lot of hiring around the New Year, and there are costs associated with that. And there's also a cost associated with granting options that also may be cause the first two quarters to have lower eps. When a company has lower first quarter earnings than their prior fourth quarter, it causes some concern in the market. Then I saw the extent of their spending on new businesses. Those all combine to put a cap on the eps in the first two quarters. The fact that Sofi maintained its guidance shows you the strength of the business and the management. How many of you could fur example run a restaurant and start 3 new restaurants and still report higher earnings. Now you combine that with interest rate uncertainty and the war and the increase in effective tax rates and you will have greater appreciation for the management and the success of the business. So why did I pick that $16-$19 range. Several years ago in response to a Bank of America sell trading, I calculated what Sofi's valuation should be as a bank based on it's growth rates. At that time, it was clearly 4.5 x tbv. With the uncertainties in the market, I determined it would bottom at 2x to 2.5 tbv. So that's the Economic floor. Could it go lower? Sure, if there's horrific economic news. But everything has a minimum value. As I told @stevenfiorillo in his interview of me in May, think of 2x tbv as a floor not a price goal. In fact, stay tuned... because Steve and I discussed Sofi again yesterday and that should be out Saturday. I have recently suggested some capital management moves that I think would be advantageous under certain assumptions., related primarily to the 2026 and 2029 converts. These woud be opportunistic but would take a good deal of cash and I don't know their cash needs for new businesses or acquisitions. But it gives sofi something to think about similar to when I suggested they repurchase 2026 converts in 2023. They did that in 2024. I've had questions about the effective tax rate 17% to 22% move see my recent post in that. More later. It's an ongoing issue related to the vesting of sbus and can actually turn around if the price of the stock rises in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Now you know why I suggested capital transactions to stop delta hedging shorting, recognize gains and lower fully diluted shares to increase eps and share price. The big gains will be when these new businesses hit their stride.

@TheMarketThesis Glad someone else caught that 😂 I think he meant Costco?

@anthonynoto @Futurenvesting @SoFi Great interview sir but did you say k-mart? Do those even exist anymore 🤣

@Dark__Brandon I'll definitely have to check them out. Appreciate the recommendation!

@andizzro @Discog_Pod Paper Wings Records is also another sick label for great metalcore that's in this sort of style

HELLO, LONG GOODBYE

@Mr_Derivatives Aged like milk 😬

Me today after finding out Michael Burry just retweeted me:

@ItsmeFubar "Europe is keeping your country afloat" is one of the funniest things I've read in a while. Keep the jokes coming, you're off to a great start.

@Chauvelin33 @KrisPatel99 hahaha what a retarded take. USA will feel this behaviour for decades to come. Europe is keeping your country afloat. Money will be spent else where, have fun being bankrupt. shitter

Weaponizing trade is one of the worst policy decisions for the future. While this is directed at Spain, its a warning to everyone else in the world that the US is no longer a reliable long term partner and they should be looking for alternative areas of trade. Trump continues to be the great gift ever for the Chinese looking to supplant the US on the global stage.

@ian_w1972 @11TakesPhotos Also, it can be used to imply transaction health for take rate. The more that is in supply, the more that can be moved around, which means more transactions, which SoFi will make some money off of.

@11TakesPhotos @stevenfiorillo @Kawcak20 Well they now have $300 million deposited in the fed master account generating interest that they can keep or choose to offer incentives for more adoption.

In a short period $SOFI SoFiUSD has crossed over $300 million in total supply. I can’t wait to see how much this grows.

@amitisinvesting This is the most interesting part of the AI trade now. The market is rewarding the toll booth more than the road builders. But if memory becomes the tax on all AI, Big Tech won’t just keep paying forever. At some point, the customer becomes the competitor.

Long post, but some thoughts on what happened in the market today… Today was a particularly weird storm of price action because the logic going into the open was as follows: - $MU crushed, saved the AI trade - AI stocks should go higher due to MU proving its not cyclical, this should help the broader market get a lift Instead, what we got right before the open… - $AAPL announces massive price hikes and effectively uses MU earnings to be like, “See! It’s not us, but if memory gets 86% margins, then we have to raise prices!” - This happens right after the hottest PCE in 3 years is reported, even with oil (the biggest proponent of inflation the past few months) still coming down - Microsoft then joins the party and raises prices across all XBOX products, once again citing memory costs Market then proceeds to take a nasty dip in every sector…except Memory. I think what is happening here will be studied for a long time. The hyperscalers, the companies that are RESPONSIBLE for $MU and $SNDK being multibaggers, are getting destroyed because…well they can’t buy back stock, they can’t get FCF positive, and they don’t have memory’s pricing power. In fact, this is what Melius Research came out today and said: “Why bother owning a hyperscaler who can't buy back stock any time soon? Micron can start buying over $25B/quarter in stock during CY27. Memory will go down as THE BOTTLENECK of ALL BOTTLENECKS for this AI era. MU said that current conditions last after calendar 2027, basically guaranteeing buybacks of epic proportions, especially next calendar year.” We are at the point where the sell-side is saying that owning the best companies in the world makes no sense when you can own the bottleneck of all bottlenecks. Here’s the thing: I don’t know if Melius is actually wrong. My gut tells me that 86% gross margins will not last forever, but as long as the hyperscalers are willing to pay, then the structural logic for market participants comes down to a simple question: why own the companies paying the capex over the companies benefiting from it? The problem is obvious: if memory inflation continues to be intense, it will affect every part of the market. From automotive to datacenters to PCs. $NVDA gets to have a tax because it’s building very IP-heavy products. Will the market allow something like memory, that is not IP-heavy, to force consumers globally to pay significantly more for the products? Also, do the memory makers even care because as long as they control supply, they can control pricing? I’d imagine the big tech companies either lower capex to stop paying the cost, keep paying the cost, or try to innovate. They likely won’t lower capex and will most likely continue paying the cost, so there probably are some elements of them trying to focus on innovating in this area…but if there won’t be any menaingful cutoff in capex, the memory story continues. The market fell today because higher inflation means more of a chance for rate hikes. I mean, NVDA went below 200 as MU hit all time highs. NVDA’s suppliers are more valuable than NVDA’s biggest customers. As a result, it’s creating a type of AI-flation that basically led the market to sell off everything else. Not sure how this plays out, retail continues to buy the dip and today’s red probably gets bought…especially as earnings continue to grow…but we are in a new paradigm for how this market gives a premium to a stock and if you have pricing power over a component that matters to build AI vs being a companies that actually uses AI, you get a premium.

@0xSweep @cryptorover Leverage, leverage, leverage

@cryptorover what the fuck is happening over there?

🚨 ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH IN SOUTH KOREA KOSPI crashed nearly -10% today, marking the 3rd largest crash in the index’s history. Over ₩800 TRILLION wiped out in a single session. Samsung Electronics crahsed -12.3%. SK Hynix crashed -12.5%. Hyundai crashed -12%.

@bobbyfijan This is incredible 😂

“Possessions are bs”

@muniredd @MetalBlakedowns Came here to say that.

@MetalBlakedowns How do you run a page like this & completely skip over Still Remains returning 🤯🤷

@wwwhashstore SoFi is also offering tokenized deposits with SofiUSD that will be FDIC insured and will provide yield as well.

@solana @SoFi Why does the bank matter if it's not FDIC insured?

BREAKING: @SoFi launches SoFiUSD (SoFiD) on Solana. The first stablecoin issued by a U.S. nationally chartered bank.

@theCFOInvestor @MacroVenom @StockMarketNerd That wasn't the point of the post though. It was to point out that the share dilution wasn't a net negative and was in fact beneficial for a very specific reason.

@MacroVenom @StockMarketNerd Good point

I’m convinced that $SOFI skeptics think $100 in net income & 10 shares is better than $1,000 in net income & 20 shares. Dilution is bad because it eats into profit per share. SoFi had wildly expensive debt on its balance sheet. They raised capital to pay off that debt & lower interest expense enough for the EPS & TBV/share impacts to be either neutral or adaptive to profit per share. So the E rose by as much as or more than the S. For every single raise. This isn’t a normal occurrence. It’s a byproduct of all the balance sheet optimization they had left to do in connection with their bank charter. Going from expensive warehouse-funded credit to freely using deposits leaves a lot of room for cutting hefty, hefty interest expense. And that optimization is now largely wrapped up, so these capital raises should be too. If I told you a company could grow share count by 10% to durably boost net income by 20%… would you actually say no? Because I’d say yes every single time.

@dogtown2325 Solomun on 8 joints to the dome would be an experience lol it was probably an excellent time.

@Bagalert411 I took 8 joints to Solomun in Chicago and faced most of them myself. Everyone I tried to pass one too they told me it would fuck up come up and blast them off so I was like well shit let me blast myself off lol

No one smokes weed at these raves anymore it’s mind blowing

@LarryB31314 Do you get paid to whine and cry all the time or is this just raw dedication to being an idiot online? It's actually borderline impressive at this point. I wish I had the amount of time and energy you put into this nonsense all the time.

@SoFiIR @anthonynoto $SOFI @SoFi is never going to deliver. This company will be “building” things forever but never actually provide shareholder value. This is one of the worst investments anyone could ever make in this current market. SOFI is a hype stock with no actual value.

Yesterday our CEO, @anthonynoto, provided a business update at the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference. To access the fireside chat webcast, click here: jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/tmc26/s…

@Tim_Sweeney_TAR Appreciate your time and insights, Tim. Thank you very much for doing this.

$sofi If you want to have more information on this opportunity for Sofi stay tuned... to Steve's channel tomorrow for our discussion... this is not investment advice, just us talking potential opportunities. @stevenfiorillo1?si=gkN8u8-eqas6E4OJ" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@stevenfiorill…

@DanielMCharter Understandable. Different strokes. I enjoy the stability. Looking for price movements in the week to week price action, even month to month, isn't the best thing for investing. Trading perhaps, but not the game for long term investors. Best of luck out there.

@andizzro @growthrapidly I can agree with that. Long.... slow.... steady climb. Time is $ for me.

$SOFI might be one of the most hated stocks in the market right now. Here’s a company that just grew revenue 41%, doubled EPS, added customers at a record pace, and became more profitable. And still the stock is trading at $15, because they didn’t raise expectations!? Make it make sense.

@TheInvestinGuy @growthrapidly This is false. As of today, it trades at a roughly 24 forward P/E and roughly 33 trailing.

@growthrapidly P/E is still 40 which is high for a bank especially when the only companies in this market getting a P/E above 40 are semiconductors.

@DanielMCharter @growthrapidly EPS growth factors this in. Still growing EPS at a great clip QoQ and YoY. It will prevent the stock from rocketing though. A slow and steady climb for this one.

@growthrapidly But did you see they raised their total shares outstanding by 19 Billion?