Andy Rebele

966 posts

Andy Rebele

Andy Rebele

@andyrebele

Seattle, WA Katılım Mart 2011
942 Takip Edilen592 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.
Andy Rebele tweet media
English
0
1
34
30.3K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
Except: - the WA Supreme Court affirmed an unconstitutional capital gains tax, so it'd be foolish to count on them - once the dam breaks, the income tax rate will rise and the threshold will fall, with a simple majority. - revenue projections, based on zero secondary effects, will likely fall short by 50%, making future revenue enhancements inevitable. - the bigger problem is the demonstration that an 8% minority has taken full control of the reins of state government
English
1
0
8
268
Daniel Vassallo
Daniel Vassallo@dvassallo·
I don’t believe anyone is moving out of WA because of the millionaire tax: 1. The tax is almost certainly unconstitutional and will be struck down by the court 2. The governor hasn’t even signed it yet 3. Can be repealed by citizen initiative and voters have already voted against income tax 10 times, most recently in 2010 4. Even if it passes, it only takes effect in 2028 5. California, as almost every other state, has an even higher millionaire tax and it seems like plenty of millionaires stay there If you’re wealthy, why would you uproot your life and family on something that will very likely not happen and if it happens you have 2 years to react?
Caleb Hammer@sircalebhammer

Just after Washington State voted to approve a 9.9% "millionaire tax" on personal income over $1 million, Jeff Bezos, Howard Schultz, and tons fled. The impacts will be ENORMOUS. I gathered the facts, stories, and data and made this mini documentary: youtu.be/9Vg0-7c0J3g

English
110
1
49
34.5K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@shaig @TechNYC The campaign to tax QSBS income at the state level is national, led by a think tank, directing and concentrating its resources in regional fights as they happen. The startup community and its defenders need to organize at the scale of the offense, or it will be defeated.
English
0
0
0
109
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@johnfgately @PioneerBoston People making over $1M have very skilled accountants and lawyers who can restructure their income to avoid or postpone the tax. Only with the ones with so much income they can't restructure around it have to move, and they're the golden geese you can least afford to lose.
English
0
1
6
281
JohnFGately
JohnFGately@johnfgately·
OUCH Massachusetts lost $4.18B in adjusted gross income in 2023, the first full year of the "millionaire's tax" new data show. Chart by @PioneerBoston issued with warning "persistence and scale of these losses signal structural competitiveness challenges" for MA #mapoli
JohnFGately tweet media
English
84
282
986
92.7K
Andy Rebele retweetledi
Vijay
Vijay@VijayInWA·
Much of the anger and frustration over the creation of an income tax in Washington state can be explained as the breaking of a century-long social contract that many generations of Washingtonians came to trust and expect. This social contract was so foundational that it was enshrined in our state's constitution - namely that taxation needs to be uniform and the state cannot target any group for higher rates of taxation. This is not to say that social contracts cannot be changed, but there is a legal and proper mechanism for doing that: amend the state's constitution. The Democrats did not choose that path because it is a very high bar to overcome (rightly so) and every time they had attempted this in the past, the people of Washington voted it down. Instead, the Democrat legislature chose the path of double-dealing and disingenuousness. This occurred in a series of steps: 1. Pack the Supreme Court with judges who would rubber stamp unconstitutional taxes. 2. Pass an unconstitutional capital gains tax but claim that, unlike any other state or at the Federal level, such a tax is an "excise tax" rather than a tax on income, giving the Supreme Court the excuse it needed to rubber stamp this wolf in sheep's clothing. 3. The Supreme Court then upholds this tax, clearly violating the Constitution and opening the door for a full income tax. 4. Create an fully fledged income tax (with all the bureaucracy required to administer it) but cynically label it a "millionaire's tax" even though they rejected every provision to guarantee it would only apply to millionaires. 5. Call the passage of this tax a state emergency, even though it only becomes effective two years from now. What kind of "emergency" allows you to wait 2 years? Answer: by classifying its passage an emergency, the Democrats purposefully prevented the possibility of a referendum of the people to reject the tax (as Washingtonians had done for a century). This get-what-you-want-no-matter-the-cost strategy is a deeply dishonest means of undermining the democratic process. 6. The Governor claims this tax makes life more "affordable" for Washingtonians but its passage provides almost no meaningful tax relief for the legion of other taxes that have ballooned under the Democrats (gas tax, sales tax, b&o tax etc). They did provide some sales tax relief on shampoo and hygiene products though. 🙄 So much has been lost to the whims of our politically extreme legislature in the last four years, but perhaps nothing so significant and painful as Washington's century-long social contract.
English
38
150
597
16.2K
Jesse Proudman
Jesse Proudman@jesseproudman·
I’m horribly confused how @GovBobFerguson can ignore the publicly available data and ignore the voice of the electorate who have made it clear time and time again they don’t support this. Signing this bill will be absolute disaster. The simple threat has already sown chaos and capital flight. But we have a chance to stop the bleeding and stabilize the patient.
Vijay@VijayInWA

"Washington has been one of the fastest-growing states for decades. It conspicuously avoided the “blue-state disease” of low economic growth and population declines. The Seattle area is home to great companies from Microsoft and Amazon to Starbucks. Washington has been the Florida or Texas of the West Coast. A secret to the Evergreen State’s success has been that it has no income tax. But Democrats in Olympia are perilously close to enacting a “millionaire tax” of 9.9%. Washington would go from being one of nine states with no income tax to having the fifth-highest rate in the country. The tax has passed both legislative houses and Gov. Bob Ferguson says he’ll sign it. Supporters hope the state supreme court will uphold it, overturning or brushing aside a 1933 precedent under which it is plainly unconstitutional. The decision to enact an income tax bodes ill for Washington’s economic future. Eleven states have done so since 1960: West Virginia, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Maine, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, New Jersey and Connecticut. We found that every one of them significantly underperformed the rest of the nation in every economic measure we looked at, including share of the nationwide population, income, and state and local tax revenue. The 11 states in combination accounted for about one-third of national output in 1970. Today they account for slightly more than one-fifth. Since Ohio adopted its income tax in 1971, its share of nationwide domestic output has fallen by nearly half. Since Michigan adopted its income tax in 1967, its share of total state and local tax revenue nationwide has fallen by 53%. Pennsylvania’s share of national output declined 42% since its income tax of 1971; West Virginia has lagged national population growth by 56% since its income tax of 1961; and Rhode Island’s share of state and local tax revenue nationally has plummeted by a third since its income tax of 1971. In terms of the change in its share of the nation’s population, economic output and population, not one of the new income-tax states registers a positive number since the imposition of this tax. And the negative numbers are often highly negative. In every state that adopted an income tax, supporters promised the added money would be used to improve education. Washington is trying to play this card, saying the tax hike is for education, but the statements from lawmakers make it clear they want a new fund for any of their spending desires. When the Washington House approved the income tax, Rep. April Berg, chairman of the Finance Committee, triumphantly declared this plan “truly historic” because it will “make life more affordable for Washingtonians.” Many of them will not be Washingtonians anymore. Illinois added its income tax in 1969, and since then its share of the national population has sunk by 40%. By following suit, Washington will join the ranks of the incredible shrinking states." -- Wall Street Journal

English
31
45
259
25K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@kirbywinfield Moving out is the only power you have left. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
1
0
1
148
☔🔥☔
☔🔥☔@kirbywinfield·
founders are moving out of washington too you guys. to the surprise of absolutely nobody with half a brain (or honest bone in their body)...
☔🔥☔ tweet media
English
12
11
92
11.3K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@GovBobFerguson The state income tax is the culmination of the capture of this state's government over the last 19 years. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
0
0
3
142
Governor Bob Ferguson
Governor Bob Ferguson@GovBobFerguson·
In my State of the State address, I called for a Millionaires' Tax that puts a significant percentage of dollars back in the pockets of Washingtonians. We've reached the end of session, and the Millionaires' Tax has passed. With it, we have the biggest small business tax cut in state history, 460,000 additional working families receiving checks from the Working Families Tax Credit, and free school meals for all Washington kids. We seized the opportunity to make our tax system more fair.
English
572
31
133
47.6K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@GovBobFerguson As governor you are a small part of the machine that has taken over WA state government, starting with early income tax attempts in 2007, and a slow but steady takeover of the WA Supreme Court from 0/9 to 7/9 appointed by D governors like you. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
0
0
0
19
Governor Bob Ferguson
Governor Bob Ferguson@GovBobFerguson·
The Millionaires' Tax is about making life more affordable. We delivered on sending a significant portion of revenues back to Washingtonians, including the largest tax break in state history for small business owners.
English
822
26
92
110.8K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@BrandiKruse @jesseproudman @GovBobFerguson While no one was paying attention, this became an intractable problem. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
0
0
1
163
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@mariadavidson This is not an accident. This is by design. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
0
0
0
121
Maria Davidson
Maria Davidson@MariaDavidson·
California has a spending problem. State spending per capita grew 54% in the last 10 years, adjusted for inflation. Don't know many people who would say state services got 54% better.
Maria Davidson tweet media
English
57
101
591
28.8K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@geekwire More broadly, do tech leaders want to locate where they have very little say, and permanent control is held by a group that only wants their money, and doesn't understand what they do? x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
0
0
0
52
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@jesseproudman I support your fight, but the war may already be over, as the other side has taken control of the legislative process and the judiciary, over the last couple of decades, preparing for this moment. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
1
0
1
15
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@stevemur I think the tipping point may have been crossed, making this problem unsolvable. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
3
0
6
446
stevemur
stevemur@stevemur·
Can Progressives govern? It really is becoming increasingly clear that no, they cannot. They are beholden to public sector unions (SEIU, AFT, NEA, etc), and see budgets primarily as redistribution and retribution mechanisms, not as the necessary source of funds for effective state services. What if the "Affordability Crisis" is just... modern American Progressivism? stevemurch.com/say-it-with-me…
English
50
196
1.1K
65.4K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@marcbarros The problem is even deeper. x.com/andyrebele/sta…
Andy Rebele@andyrebele

Rule by the 8% How does 8% of a population control the laws, taxes, and economies of entire states like California and Washington? If you want to understand the math, look at the complex cap tables of some corporations. Mark Zuckerberg wields absolute control over Meta while owning just 13% of its economic equity. The Ford family dictates the direction of the Ford Motor Company with barely 2% of the actual shares. By exploiting dual-class stock structures and supervoting shares, a tiny minority of insiders engineers control over the majority. Public sector unions on the West Coast have built the same machine in government. The average voter walks into the ballot box assuming their vote has the same power as every other. They're wrong. Like retail investors holding lower-voting shares, the public is just along for the ride. California and Washington are not broken democracies. They are captured monopolies, functioning as designed. This is the dystopian reality that the tech and investor classes fundamentally misunderstand. When founders and VCs try to fight California's proposed wealth tax or Washington's new income tax, they reach for a spreadsheet, they bring data. They bring logic. They pull up projections showing that California’s wealth tax will actually cost the state $25 billion once capital flight is factored in. They treat bad policy like a bad business strategy, something to be fixed with better math. The math is undeniably correct. And they are still losing the war. The smartest guys in the room assume state politics is a free market of ideas where the policy that generates the most economic prosperity wins. It isn't. The unions' goal isn't to maximize the state's GDP. It's to maximize their own institutional power and revenue. If a tax throttles the broader economy but successfully funnels a billion dollars into a bucket earmarked for union members, that isn't a failure. It's the intended outcome The Supervoting Political Share Here is how the 8% actually captures the state. It starts with effective one-party rule. In CA and WA, Democrats routinely capture about 60% of the general electorate, making the vast majority of legislative districts completely safe. The general election is a formality; the only contest that matters is the primary. Primary turnout is notoriously abysmal - usually 30% to 40% of registered voters. That means the primary electorate represents maybe 20% of the state’s total voting-eligible population. To win that primary, a candidate only needs a simple majority of that fraction. Run the numbers, and you realize about 10% to 11% of the total electorate is deciding who runs the state. This is where the union deploys its supervoting share. Public sector union members make up roughly 8% of the population. But unlike the rest of the electorate, they vote as a bloc. They also supply the ground game - the call centers, the door-knockers, the war chests. A tiny, highly organized minority dictates the outcomes for candidates who go on to control supermajorities in the legislature. They outvote the remaining 90% of the state by default. Weaponizing the Ballot Once their candidates are seated, unions don't just trust the legislative process. They coerce it. They use the ballot initiative not as direct democracy, but as leverage. They fund extreme, economically ruinous measures and threaten to put them on the ballot to manufacture a crisis. Lawmakers and governors, desperate to avoid the fallout, cave at the collective bargaining table just to get the union to drop the initiative. When unions do push initiatives all the way to the voters, it’s usually to ring-fence tax revenues. They write laws legally restricting how new tax buckets can be spent, ensuring the money is preemptively funneled into programs that end up paying their members. Capturing the Referees The next layer is changing the rules so power can never be lost. They forcibly expand their revenue base by reclassifying private home healthcare aides as public employees just to extract mandatory dues. But the final lock on the system is the quiet takeover of the judiciary. Take Washington State. For decades, the state constitution was strictly interpreted to forbid a graduated income tax. To clear the runway for new taxes, the unions didn't just lobby the legislature; they captured the referees. The timeline is undeniable. In 2007, zero of the nine Washington State Supreme Court justices had been appointed by a Democratic governor. That same year, unions began their coordinated push for income and capital gains taxes. Concurrently, a quiet campaign started to persuade sitting justices to retire mid-term. This allowed union-backed governors to fill the vacancies by appointment, completely shielding their preferred judges from initial open elections. The number of appointed justices steadily rose to five, then suddenly jumped to seven, perfectly in sync with the moment the income tax finally took hold in the legislature. It’s the statistical equivalent of nearly 80% of the U.S. Senate being appointed instead of elected. It was a patient, geopolitical-style takeover: stack the court, wait out the political shifts, and take the territory without firing a single shot. The One-Way Ratchet Because they own the board, the union's ultimate advantage is time. The tech and investor classes view every legislative session or ballot measure as a discrete fight. The unions are playing an infinite game. It operates as a one-way political ratchet. The defense has to spend millions to win every single time just to maintain the status quo. The union machine only needs to win once. If a measure fails, they wait, tweak it, and try again. They test policies in controlled environments, like using the tiny city of SeaTac to pilot a radical minimum wage law. The catch? The mandate could be waived if a business signed a collective bargaining agreement. It was a structural trap designed to force employers into unionization just to survive. When an outright state income tax proved toxic to voters, they pivoted. They passed a capital gains tax, branded it an "excise tax" to squeeze it past their newly packed Supreme Court, and shifted the legal Overton window just enough to establish the precedent they needed. They propose, iterate, litigate, and wait. Once the ratchet clicks forward, it never goes back. Tech leaders fighting these taxes think they can optimize away a bad policy, but fail to realize they are fighting a war that was lost years ago. The system isn't going to correct itself just because someone shows that it's inefficient. For decades, the left obsessed over building a permanent majority, and failed. But the unions realized they didn't have to. You don't need to own 51% of the company if you hold the supervoting shares.

English
1
0
0
79
Andy Rebele retweetledi
Marc Barros
Marc Barros@marcbarros·
After 40 years (born and raised) I left WA. Moment is leaving this month as well. I'm not even a millionaire affected by this tax. But when you add up all the costs to run a business in WA we can't afford it. You can build a remote team and re-open in Wyoming, removing all of these costs. WA is incredibly beautiful (especially the summers) and the people are great. Unfortunately the numbers don't lie and unless you run a super high margin software business, WA is just too expensive. Personally...you'd never pick WA to start a company. - Gas taxes (now some of the highest in the state) - Sales tax (up to 10.5% in Seattle) - Property tax (1% of your home value with a path they can take this to 3%. In total $ this tax they have increased nearly 100% over the last decade) - Capital gains tax (new in the last three years went form 0 -> 9%. it targets business owners and not real-estate). - Estate tax (they recently changed it to a progressive system that is up to 35% just to the state of WA) - Housing prices are some of the highest in the country. - Food costs are unreal, just visit a Seattle restaurant or grocery store. Business... - Very little capital. Great angels but almost no VC or larger funding sources. - Super high salaries for tech talent (this has changed but amazon, microsoft, etc paid very high rates for a very long time). - B&O Tax: paid as a % of your sales. - Sales & Use Tax (this is the real killer) What pushed us out was the recent change to Sales & Use Tax. It used to be you paid this tax on physical things you bought for your business, similar to sales tax. Now you pay it on 100% of the items you buy, think shopify, aws, google, etc. Even if your team is remote you pay 10% sales tax on 100% of these purchases no matter where peole are located. But the real kicker, was they expanced this law to be a tax that applies to all digital advertising. Run FB ads in Germany? You pay WA state a 10% tax. Overnight that is a+$200K a year tax that did not exist last year. Again not even based in where your ads run or where your team is. Incorporated in WA state? You will pay this tax. What makes this sad is all political diversity disappeared years ago. It's that debate that keeps government from taking everything. One political team has run the state for +30 years and Seattle for more than 50 years. This train has been coming for years and is now accelerating. WA government can never have enough $. I hope there is a new generation of company builders who see this is an opportunity and can run into the burning building.
Governor Bob Ferguson@GovBobFerguson

The Millionaires’ Tax passed by the House represents historic progress in rebalancing our unfair system. It sends significant dollars back to Washington families and small businesses. It expands the Working Families Tax Credit to 460,000 additional households – that’s money straight back into the pockets of working families. It saves working parents money and ensures our kids are prepared to learn by funding free breakfast and lunch for all Washington K-12 students, which has been a priority of mine since I ran for governor. The Millionaires’ Tax will apply to less than one half of one percent of Washingtonians, but make life more affordable for millions. I look forward to signing it.

English
233
635
3K
385.1K
Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
@beffjezos xAI was not built right first time around, so is being rebuilt from the foundations up. Same thing happened with Tesla.
English
1.3K
1.3K
20.1K
50.8M
Beff (e/acc)
Beff (e/acc)@beffjezos·
Fractional Cursor acquisition. xAI taking the right steps
Jason Ginsberg@JasonBud

I’m proud to be joining SpaceX and xAI with @milichab It has become clear that software is changing fundamentally. More and more, people can shape the tools they use directly, and the ceiling of what can be built keeps rising. What makes xAI special is the scale of its ambition: to build from first principles all the way out to the stars. I’m especially grateful to work on products that expand human agency and freedom. That mission is deeply personal to me. My family came to the United States fleeing communism, and the belief that freedom should be part of the next generation of the internet has driven me every day since Andrew and I started Skiff. Now, we get to work on intelligence, understanding, and freedom on a universal scale.

English
47
113
3K
1M
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
@chr1sa Alaska Airlines hasn't implemented MFA.
English
0
0
1
354
Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson@chr1sa·
Hearing a bunch of reports of people (scammers, presumably) booking their flights with your frequent flier miles. Most of the examples have been with Alaska Airlines but I've heard of others too. How on earth does this happen? Don't they have to log into your account to do this???
English
4
1
6
8.7K
Andy Rebele
Andy Rebele@andyrebele·
Their response is to try to tighten the noose. When people started renouncing citizenship to avoid rising taxes, they imposed the exit tax to harvest the cap gains tax from those who leave. Now when Californians flee to avoid the wealth tax, Ro Khanna et al propose to make it national so no one can escape.
English
0
0
1
62
Mark Suster
Mark Suster@msuster·
I wish Democrats would study “the law of unintended consequences” It’s like no legislatures seem to ever study history or economics. I understand the emotion of rent control, high taxes & big social programs. But economically speaking the data is pretty clear they don’t work
Ari Hoffman@thehoffather

DEVELOPING: Starbucks founder Howard Schultz announces that his family is leaving Seattle for Florida the same day Democrats passed an income tax on Washington state Starbucks corporate is moving to Nashville The wealth exodus is underway. Democrats have killed WA's economy

English
25
7
120
9.4K