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Americold $COLD and Lineage $LINE are the two largest cold storage REITs. both are marketed as infrastructure. the financials look closer to a cyclical with manufactured AFFO. quick thread on what the numbers actually show
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shallowdives
324 posts
shallowdives
@shallowdives1
Short short ideas. Not Investment advice
Katılım Mart 2026
389 Takip Edilen128 Takipçiler
$WYFI Q1 may not have had much of a catalyst but clearly they are biting their tongues about some big deals on the horizon with large end customers
Whenever the announcement drops in the next month or two this thing is going to pop big time
$50/share incoming
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Desperation never looks good for a struggling stock
$INGR Should go lower today on this news
*INGREDION MADE PROPOSAL FOR TATE & LYLE OF UP TO 615P/SHARE
shallowdives@shallowdives1
🌽In the last few months, $INGR has quietly lost its CFO, Chief Innovation Officer, and Chief Procurement Officer. The CEO has been selling millions in stock. Something is going on at this corn ingredients company. Here's what we found. 🧵
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It was so clear this would continue to run. Anyone with any sort of valuation discipline that wants in on AI factor exposure needs to be long $AKAM
shallowdives@shallowdives1
Just looking through $AKAM's results. Shouldn't the stock be much higher than it is today? They are guiding to $6.78/share of earnings this year which gets to 22x earnings CIS revenue was 40% and guided to more than 50% for the year with revenue ramping each quarter Anthropic deal doesn't even really hit until 2027 and their GPU pipeline "significantly exceeds existing and projected inventory" Surely there will be more demand too, it seems like this trend is just starting. Why wouldn't this continue to trade much higher? Is it the capex ramp?
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@RorschachStocks I'd go as far as to say it is dangerous for the authors own safety
Scary stuff...
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I mean seriously there is just no reason to do this other than ego. You want to be the next Burry. Maybe it works but surely there are easier shorts.
Culper@CulperResearch
NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.
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The entire business model here is its shareholders buying its chips.
$CBRS might be the ultimate circular business in the AI space
Negligible Capital@negligible_cap
$CBRS cap table per Bloomberg - OpenAI has potential to own 10% - 15% of fully diluted shares. $AMZN AWS will also own 1% - 2%. Notably the IPO will be a huge win for the VC funds involved
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I have to hand it to $CBRS. They clearly know how to tell a story.
The "Founders Letter" at the begining of the S-1 reads like a blog post written for high levels of engagement
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@anonymouskeepit It is from today around when I sent it. Fidelity is probably going to have some of the best borrow on the street with its retail base
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@shallowdives1 Do you know when that note was published? Not sure how accurate but ortex is showing zero availability for borrow for $WOLF.
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$WOLF note from Fidelity stock loan desk:
Borrow fees for Wolfspeed are moving deeper into hard to borrow territory with shares on-loan more than doubling in response to increased convert overhang....Current inventory in the securities lending market is limited given ~26 million of the company's ~31 million share float is currently on-loan, with Renesas and insiders holding ~17.5 million of the company's ~48.3 million shares outstanding
By not issuing another convert, the stock could countinue to squeeze much higher and they could issue shares using an ATM instead. Seems like the better route at this point
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@taobanker I never get why $SPG doesn't re-rate much higher. The business seems pretty defensible
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a lot of people don't realize this but elite malls is one of the most proven and moated business models at this point
there was a big scare about this in the 2010's due to Amazon but now smart investors recognize that a top tier asset is basically invincible
Tiger Thesis@TigerThesis
As a local, i would say that Pakuwon is really undervalued, their niche compared to other real estate companies in Indonesia is that they consistently made and owned profitable lively malls, usually near residential area, and its not your usuall mall, its hard to explain, but its somwhat designed to match the needs of the residents around it… when i was a kid, i used to live in Surabaya(Pakuwon’s main area) and i literally lived near its mall PTC, and the mall sort of grew up with me and my friends… with the auties in their food stalls, the grocery store, etc etc…. then i moved to Jakarta.. they also have a mall like that here the location is basically a moat i think
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@finphysnerd Pretty sure 90% of the people discussing it don't even understand what the app is or how their MAU counts aren't comparable at all to other social networks
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Three points that boomer $SNAP bulls fail to realise after all these years.
1. Nobody over 23 uses their product.
2. They have no way to monetise their core product.
3. Evan is the worst tech CEO around.
My short thesis has been the same for 4 years now. Everything else is noise
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Huge red flag $OKLO
Married couple running the company and running the board too?
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@bubbleboi Is there a specific ticker that you are exposed to?
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On the surface I do agree with this thesis, but also the COVID inflation experience just seems so much different.
COVID inflation was demand induced, so the end products could push prices up first and then pulled demand on the inputs
Right now we're seeing input cost inflation first, so these companies could start seeing margin pressure first, the exact opposite of the COVID period
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I'm in the same place
At this point it seems like there isn't much of a valuation case. I'm seeing best estimates if bull case as $30bn of EBITDA in 2030 and the current valuation already seems to bake that in
I haven't sold yet but think the time is near even though I bet it still double from here on vibes
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@dbull888 Bought Intel at $45 and trying to decide what to do with it. My only analysis was “national asset” and after its run I’m trying to figure out what to do. What’s the argument for a double from here?
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These takes are so tired. You could have bought anything semis/memory in the last month and 2-3x’d.
You could have bought literally anything in April 2025 and comfortably be up 50%
You could have bought anything in 2023 and be up 3-5x.
You could buy $INTC right now and be up 2x in the next year 🫢
ally@missmayn
not loving this economy where if you didn’t own assets prior to 2020 you’re just fucked forever.
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@aceozil1749888 @Pablo01618 This year though? That's about how much revenue is expected. 2030 maybe
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@shallowdives1 @Pablo01618 It's actually very much possible if they can fulfil the demand as Dave updates that Q2 demand will be met
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I'd love to see an $INTC model that lays out the mega bull case where $AAPL and SK Hynix and XAi, etc. all become customers, the fab is running at very high utilization, and CPUs demand spikes.
in other words, given their current assets, what is the maximum EBITDA/operating income they can earn?
The stock could absolutely be trading significantly below fair value based on this case, I just have no idea how to model it out
Is something like that out there?
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@BullishBets0 I agree
$TTD is probably slowing to single digit growth by the end of the year and $DSP likely ends the year closer to 30% based on their guidance
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@shallowdives1 Yeah very cheap company which clearly gaining marketshare!
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$DSP
-18% ex-TAC growth in Q1 with 700bps EBITDA margin expansion for Q1
-Q2 guided to 23% ex-TAC growth (500bps acceleration and likely will beat midpoint too) with 23% EBITDA margins
-Expect top line growth to accelerate through rest of year with flow through to EBITDA resulting in continued margin expansion
What more could you want?
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@Pablo01618 FY26 EBITDA of $60 billion is pretty much impossible
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@RobertHenry87 @viant_tech Focus on the business and not the stock. The future looks bright
If you don't like the company and what they are doing, sell the stock and move on
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@shallowdives1 .@viant_tech is getting annihilated ahead of it's earnings. $DSP shareholders are ready for more major disappointment and destruction of their money.
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I don't think people realize how badly $DSP is going to start outgrowing $TTD
Very bullish for next week's earnings report but even more bullish for what comes in Q3 and Q4
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$MRAM is up half an $NVEC market cap today. I doubt $NVEC ends the day up only 9%
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