@PhillipsPOBrien An interesting take on this - could be a negotiated exit. Explains the ease of extraction and why Trump is not afraid of Iraq-like implications. A Cronicle of a death foretold. amp.miamiherald.com/news/nation-wo….
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arnoldtukker
24 posts
arnoldtukker
@arnoldtukker
Arnold is a professor of Industrial Ecology and former Scientific Director of the Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML) at Leiden University
Katılım Mart 2020
6 Takip Edilen16 Takipçiler
@PhillipsPOBrien Sure, the US has a history in which they underestimated the complexity of regime change. Iraq, Afghanistan. But Panama 1989 went pretty well. It all depends how the remnants of the current regime supported by 30k Cubans can cling to power.
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Good Morning and welcome to another episode of regime change by the USA. The US seems to be militarily trying to get rid of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro right now. There are reports of US ground forces in action. However, watch the Cubans. They will have a role to play.
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@general_ben Smart. By giving them such tasks for now, people will react as below: 'Sent by weirdo's. Doing a harmless job'. So it gets easy to look away. But it makes the picture that the military is on the street in D.C. normal. Could be prepping for something more serious in future.
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Dear General Caine (CJCS), dear General George (CSA), dear General Nordhaus (Chief of the National Guard), is this ok with you? Is this the emergency that required mobilization of national guard troops from DC and six other States?
Republicans against Trump@RpsAgainstTrump
Trump militarized DC and now the National Guard is out here picking up garbage. Disgraceful
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@vtchakarova So true, sadly (warning out there for years). We did this ERECON report for DG Enterprise and MEP Butikhofer in .....2015. The US Geological survey made their warnings when the Mountain pass REE mine closed.....around 2002. Nothing happened of course.
ec.europa.eu/docsroom/docum…
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Geopolitical strategists have been warning about this total dependence for years (prior to Covid), but it was a politically incorrect topic because of the decarbonization agenda of the West. Now everyone is paying attention since reality has punched them in the face really hard.
Michael Dunne@dunne_insights
China's dominance in magnets is practically total. "The [West] let China amass over 90% market share in rare earth permanent magnets—essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and increasingly, robotics. Tesla’s Optimus robot will need rare earth magnets sourced from China. Global automakers cannot produce EVs without them." Via @hjesanderson
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@ChrisMurphyCT "All these lies are Trump's pretext to sign a deal with Russia that hands Ukraine to Putin. Zelensky knows this." Fine. But that implies the resource deal is insufficient. Why do you go to Washington for signing something that you know beforehand is insufficient?
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2/ You cannot erase the context. Trump has been calling Zelensky a corrupt dictator and spreading Russian propaganda that Russia didn't invade Ukraine.
All these lies are Trump's pretext to sign a deal with Russia that hands Ukraine to Putin. Zelensky knows this.
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MAGA is making the claim that if you watch the entire 50 minute video, Zelensky is the antagonist.
This isn't true. At all. I was with Zelensky before this meeting and it's important to know his mindset heading in.
1/ A short 🧵on how the entire ambush went down.
Jordan Schachtel@JordanSchachtel
If you watch the full Trump-Zelensky press conference, it is very clear that Zelensky, not Trump or Vance, became the antagonist. Both POTUS and VP were very respectful and cordial until Zelensky very publicly ignited a firestorm. It all starts at 40:30 1) Zelensky essentially rejects how VP described the mandate of POTUS to conduct foreign affairs, and he insinuates that Trump term one did nothing to stop Putin. 2) He then basically tells Vance that his ideas are faulty and that the administration's diplomacy won't work. These two comments are *deliberately antagonistic.* Everything was all well and good, but Zelensky took two major shots in a public forum, and they had to respond. And respond they did. Recall, this is the guy who interfered in our electoral politics and called VP "too radical," and bashed Trump in an interview with New York Mag weeks before the election. Zelensky is ENTIRELY at fault here. 100%.
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@vtchakarova Well, that was before the escalation. I can see him turning to supporting Russia from now in attempt to weaken what you call the Dreagonbear alliance.
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For the sake of clarity, prior to the escalation of the conversation with Zelensky, Trump has made clear that the US would continue delivering military aid to Ukraine. This is the part I will be mostly wondering about following the escalation in the meeting.
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@Mylovanov Not sure if links work here. But this is my take:
linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
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9. A paragraph on security guarantees. It is vague, but the U.S. wanted to out in nothing
10. Commercial in nature
11. Respect commitments of Ukraine to the EU etc
12. Language to prohibit development of minerals on the occupied territories not through Ukraine, but … 4/
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BREAKING: Ukrainian cabinet approves the draft of the minerals deal with the U.S.
This is the deal:
1. A fund. Joint ownership US-Ukraine. No more 100% US financial control
2. Shares of ownership take into account relative contributions 1/
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@wartranslated This seems the text. Fascinating. Read the sentences on " Contributions made to the Fund" relegating "distributions" (seems what the US gets) to a future Fund agreement, and the vaguery on '[US support] for Ukraines efforts to obtain security guarantees. reuters.com/markets/deals/…
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The full text of the agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine regarding rare earth minerals has surfaced online. Today, the Ukrainian government is set to review the text and authorize ministers for further signing during negotiations between Zelensky and Trump on security guarantees.
"This agreement is directly tied to security guarantees. Neither the President of Ukraine nor the Ukrainian government will consider or sign this agreement separately from Ukraine's security guarantees." - Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal.
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@vtchakarova The global REE market is worth maybe 3 billion a year, with China and Australia as main sources. Mining 500 billion of REE globally will take say 100 years, and centuries in Ukraine...Why is nobody doing some basic monetary accounting these days?
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According to sources, almost 70% of these rare earths and raw materials are located in Ukrainian territories that are currently under Russian control. Why is nobody doing a geopolitical due diligence these days?
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@PhillipsPOBrien It is the Czechoslovakia 1938 playbook again. First, get your chunk of land via a deal of the big powers. Second, get the president out (in that case Benes). Then, take the rest. Here the difference is Russia needed a 3 year war first and may find a Georgian solution ok.
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Hi All--Just sent out this piece (free for all) on the most important example of Trump and Putin aligning. Its about the issue of Ukrainians holding elections soon. Before the US elections, neither Trump nor Kellogg cared about the issue--but for Putin is was key. Now Trump and Kellogg are arguing the Russian line exactly.
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@StratcomCentre Hm. Better tomorrow! Only in this way Europe can avoid a US-Russian fait accompli. We Dutch may remember the 1712 negotiations ending the Spanish Succession War in Utrecht, NL. The French negotiator then said this to the Dutch: Nous traiterons sur vous, chez vous, sans vous.
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Europe is preparing a significant joint military aid package for Ukraine, expected to be unveiled by the end of the month. (Bloomberg)
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@PhillipsPOBrien seems they abandone the plan.....npr.org/2025/02/13/g-s…
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There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are lies on the level of Elmo saying he cares about government efficiency. npr.org/2025/02/13/g-s…
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@DarthPutinKGB You forgot - sending Azovstal defenders against the agreement with me back to Ukraine
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This week Turkey has
-Said its Navy will enforce the Black Sea grain deal for 2 years
-Open a bayraktar plant in Ukraine
- Supply self propelled artillery to Ukraine
- Allowed Sweden into NATO
I remain a master strategist.
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@qbas81 @leashless @elonmusk It is quite important that the WHOLE car industry producing EVs builds in vehicle to grid capacity. Every car sold now will be 10-15 years on the road. A huge lock-in looms, which would imply an opportunity lost.
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Why the @ElonMusk push on electric vehicles was a critical civilisation-level turning point: nature.com/articles/s4146…
You can't decarbonise the grid without a ton of batteries, and parked electric cars are those batteries.
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@con_punk @CanadianUkrain1 'This account does not exist'. Seems he gave up..twitter.com/canadianukrain1
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We knew this day would come, @CanadianUkrain1’s big reveal...his battle rifle. TLDR Yes, it’s all airsoft gear.
Let’s take a look at his loadout, piece-by-piece. Thread incoming!🧵
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@shashj @michaelh992 @olliecarroll If I were Ukraine I would capture it and donate to Romania on the same day via a bilateral agreement. Russia could then only take it back by challenging a Nato country....
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@YorickB No worries Yorick. Ik heb veel kritiek, maar vooral op de Ministerie-RIVM-OMT congsi, en jij en Marino alle kudo's voor wat jullie hebben opgezet.
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@PVersteeg1 @milenaholdert @MinVWS @mzelst @YorickB Nee. Deze twee heb ik altijd heel feitelijk gevonden. De problemen zaten of zitten bij de situatie waarin Minister, RIVM en OMT toch te dicht op elkaar zaten. En laten we niet vergeten dat de situatie heel complex was.
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Nieuws: @MinVWS heeft in begin coronapandemie OMT-adviezen proberen aan te passen, en is daarin ook geslaagd. RIVM nam suggesties over, OMT zelf werd niet geraadpleegd. Gaat o.a. om specifiek toegevoegde zin die mondmaskers in ouderenzorg ontraadt. nos.nl/nieuwsuur/arti…
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@DieTukkerfries Nederland heeft een slordige 600 mensen op IC en 1800 in het ziekenhuis. Denemarken: ca 60 en 450, Noorwegen en Zweden vergelijkbaar. Onze zorg is uitgewoond, stuwmeer uitgestelde zorg is enorm, oversterfte veel hoger dan aantal COVID doden. Dit is (eindelijk) logisch beleid.
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Nederland zou in dat geval het eerste land van Europa worden dat zulke zware restricties invoert vanwege Omikron.
Oostenrijk en Slowakije waren vorige maand in lockdown gegaan, maar zijn nu weer aan het versoepelen. Bovendien deden zij dit vanwege de delta-uitbraak.
Raar.
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Wat ziet Van Dissel in vredesnaam voor gevaar dat anderen niet zien? Deze proactieve attitude en dringende toon, komt vrij on-Nederlands over.
Dat advies tot een lockdown met zulke forse beperkingen ligt voor zover ik weet op dit moment nergens in Europa op tafel.
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@rubenivangaalen @Ipie33 Nee, die vaccins zullen het niet zijn. Maar de NL oversterfte is een factor 3 groter als gemelde Covid-sterfte in november. Ook als je rekening houdt met onderraportage te veel. De andere logische kandidaat? Uitgestelde zorg. Namelijk veel minder of niet van toepassing op D en No
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"Oversterfte komt door vaccins"
Kijk hier 🤷♂️
"Nou ja, Denen en Noren zijn...apart".
ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
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