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YTD vs 2 months what are we doing

DEBT SERIOUS - My Weekly Private Credit Recap: - The Carlyle Group is hit with redemptions - Maturity walls, revisited - Private credit short index - New types of AI data center financing - $TSLX Alan Waxman on a podcast - Notable deals debtserious.substack.com/p/round-39-mat…

It’s almost like Private Credit isn’t actually going to zero.

Valuation trick that has served me well over the years: Start with net cash companies. EBIT / 3 / (Prime +5%) > EV You can LBO the whole business with debt at prime + 5% that is covered 3x. Good for identifying undervalued takeout targets.

There is a view that insurance companies are the levered bag holders of sketchy private credit - the "banks" of a new GFC, so to speak. Apollo's analysis says otherwise: "The chart below shows exposure to below investment grade bank loans across a representative sample of US insurers. "The average is 1%. "The bottom line is that sub-investment grade levered lending is a very small part of the balance sheet for the US insurance industry."

The software maturity wall is coming. The LME wave is right behind it. Everyone's positioning. What if the right move is actually to do nothing? Let the large holders negotiate their first-out paper. Clip your coupon. Wait for the stub to get repaid. Wrote about it here: junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekl…

Collection of my private equity primers 1/ Leveraged Buyout Primer

Blue Owl's non traded BDC, OCIC, received redemption requests for 21.9% of the fund. Is it cooked? No, it'll be fine. Here's why: 1) Portfolio turnover and 5% quarterly tender - OCIC tenders for 5% of its fund each quarter (20% per annum), irrespective of redemption requests. This liquidity matches the cadence of portfolio turnover, which averaged 30.5% per year over the past 5 years. Last year, OCIC had loan repayments of $11.5 billion compared to a maximum redemption liability of $4.0 billion (20% of equity). Portfolio liquidity roughly matches redemption liability (somewhat minimal asset liability mismatch).

EA just printed the largest LBO financing since the GFC. $18B in debt. $50B in orders. Priced tight. Bonds traded up on the break. Meanwhile, CCC spreads at 9-month wides. YTD returns negative. HY funds posting the largest weekly outflows of the year. Primary market looks healthy. Secondary market saying something different junkbondinvestor.com/p/credit-weekl…

Collection of restructuring and distressed debt primers from BoringBiz 1/ Restricted Groups

Gen Z investor vs Boglehead

My most important rule for life: Don’t complain about anything. If it’s within your control, go do something about it. If it’s not, complaining is just a waste of energy. When you complain, you’re giving too much power to the thing. Take back that power.

Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang talking about the importance of growing a tolerance for failure when innovating from back in 2011