Ash Arora

My intern was born in 2007 I have unread emails older than that

@srinisekaran @atShruti Haha am visiting London this week, watched first show this morning! Perk of working SF timezone

@asharoraa @atShruti How’d you see it that fast Ash haha

In SF? Who is going for Dhurandhar 2 today? I want to watch!!

@atShruti Yesssss! Not gonna add more pics, don’t wanna ruin it for you haha

@asharoraa really?!

Both are correct imo NVIDIA is the closest public proxy to AI, not Microsoft and Amazon P/E TTM of this ~$5T co is still 30x+ which is similar to private pricing, even forward is 20x+ There is ~$2T that reallocates annually in publics, even without as big a push as AI My best guess is when OpenAI and Anthropic IPO that flow breaks and NVDA multiple likely compresses.

One of these two groups is mispriced Private AI labs: OpenAI valued around $840B, Anthropic north of $600B on secondaries. Both at 30x+ ARR. Public giants: Microsoft at ~$3T on 23x forward earnings. Amazon at ~$2.3T on 28x. Microsoft likely owns ~25% of OpenAI. Amazon likely owns ~15% of Anthropic and ~5% of OpenAI If private investors are pricing these labs for a $5T+ venture-style outcome then… Microsoft’s implied stake in a $5T OpenAI is $1.25T embedded inside a $3T company. Amazon’s combined stakes embed roughly $1T inside a $2.3T company. Publics too cheap on Al exposure? Or privates/secondaries in bubble territory? Which breaks first?

@Crudeoilist Yup

@asharoraa And became a doctor ?

I was at a party today and met a Chindian (Chinese-Indian) who failed math in high school Disappointed half the world, literally

everyone who was under the age of 25 in 2020 should get reparations

@jaredrosnerd 🎯 The coldest winter I have ever spent was a summer in London

The hottest summer I ever spent was a winter in San Francisco

Rich kids get capital. Middle class kids get “figure it out.” Poor kids get trauma and told it builds character. The starting line is not equal.

@habibihashir The name is literally “Shenanigans” what did you expect

i'm deleting linkedin

Here’s what I’ve noticed - liking yourself is one of the most radical things you can do and it makes miserable people absolutely insane.

@WestsideLAGuy I hope you heal one day. Howie’s an amazing guy, that level of charisma, humor and care is unseen.

This is successful founder of Airtable Howie Liu & wife (she’s 3 years older). They have a great life together, new baby, and I’m sure he’s a loyal provider husband & dad. But she’s not genuinely sexually & romantically attracted to him. To deny this reality is cope.

@mansourtarek_ @aleximm @Alfred_Lin @matthuang @luanalopeslara @_charlienoyes @abhishekm1636 Looool @abhishekm1636 at the back didn’t even stop at the end! Boy crossed a 100 easy haha 🏆

This is how Kalshi Q1 board meeting ended. cc @Alfred_Lin @matthuang @aleximm @luanalopeslara @_charlienoyes @abhishekm1636

@oneill_c You know it 🔥

Unfortunately training by itself is not a defensible moat without being coupled with inference. The unit economics simply don't work out ie training costs, if you train a good enough model that people want to use, should be a rounding error compared to inference costs. In addition to that, you become this awkward middle man between the customer and the GPUs/inference provider the model runs on. Training will eventually become commoditised in a sense, and the training teams left standing will be the ones embedded in inference who are either very good at creating the abstractions to enable anyone to train, or extremely hands-on and dedicated to enterprise

@justRRollin Founder only is restrictive!

@asharoraa the best way for men to support women is by stopping this nonsense and sending the women in their lives to The Den jointheden.co - actually run by women

SF is a place where men start women-only communities

@Detasseled Lol that happened in big tech in south bay years ago Idk a single woman in sf hired for dei

@asharoraa Also the place where women are hired for DEI reasons. x.com/asharoraa/stat…

@MattMembrino Why do you think that?

@asharoraa Men really be fucking this city up…

@misinfo_agent Omg why the attack 😭

@asharoraa "men" bro is not one of us he a they them at best, at worst he's a lesbian french dude

@Anishsbharadwaj Hahahaha true that

@asharoraa If the "odds are good......" line about SF ever needs a launch video

Patrick Collison tells people in their 20s to not move to San Francisco. William largely agrees with him. He thinks SF has a consensus problem and has removed the risk from becoming a founder: "I'm a product of Silicon Valley. I started Plaid back in 2012. I've been there since I was 21, and it's very easy to stay in Silicon Valley. But you can start to get isolated and get very consensus focused. San Francisco is probably the most consensus place I've ever been to. That is both a huge crutch for us, but it's also probably the most valuable asset. As a founder, if you're building in something that SF believes is very consensus, but the world does not believe yet, that's actually a great operating environment. That's why Silicon Valley and SF are so dynamic and we're so in front of the curve. But we also have completely lost touch with how the rest of the world operates. Even how the everyday American operates. So I think it's very important to go to places that don't have that same bias. If you think about emerging markets specifically – the founders who build there, they're the everyday people, they live in this constrained society. They're constrained in a way that San Francisco and New York isn't. And that breeds a different type of creativity, it breeds a different type of innovation that you really can't get anywhere else. If you go to talk to people in London or Vienna or San Francisco, people are living in a world of abundance. And that causes a very specific creation cycle. SF and Silicon Valley are probably more akin to Wall Street in the 1990s than they are like a research lab in Cambridge in like the 1950s. Maybe that was Silicon Valley in the 90s, but it's not anymore. You talk to a 23-year-old and assuming you're like moderately competent and went to the right high school and college, you're going to get a $3 million seed round. And worst case scenario, you can go work at like a great company as an engineer and you'll have "founder" on your resume. There is no risk in that proposition. If you go back to pre-2008, you're on the edge of the knife, and I think that creates just so much intensity in creativity and fear that is such a critical part of the founder journey. Starting companies is just too f**king safe, and it's caused a lot of companies to be super safe companies -- like we're going to pivot to AI and wrap OpenAI/Anthropic. That's not bold, that's not ambitious. And it's because we are attracting founders that actually want to be employees. They don't think and say "if I don't pull this off, I'm going to become bankrupt. My life is over." I think that's pretty healthy. That's when you bring out the rawness of humanity. And I don't see that very much anymore."