Austin LeBahn

Mark Zandi, the Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics recently released a state-level business cycle analysis which had the stark headline: roughly 1/3 of U.S. GDP comes from states that are classified as “in recession” or “high risk”. That’s a headline to pay attention to 🧵

My only criticism is that the 3rd box from the top (Divestment) is clearly cut-off early. C'mon, McKinsey.

Clear framework on capital allocation by McKinsey. The ability to consistently deploy capital into opportunities where returns > cost of capital is key, & the best companies do just that. Capital structure alone is not enough to create value, nor is simply buying back shares.

LPs are lowering their return expectations for PE, according to PitchBook. The avg net DPI in the 2010s was 2.0-2.5x for top-quartile funds. LPs are now expecting 1.8-2.3x net DPI for the same funds. Curious to know if this makes fundraising easier or more challenging?

@OfficialJoelF I live right next door to the new Waldorf Astoria. The thing is TOWERING. Can't believe it is only ~75/100 stories it plans to be. Glad there are other super talls in development otherwise it would stick out like a sore thumb.

Idk how accurate drawing a line from Waldorf Astoria across the Miami skyline is but it’s clearly taller than most towers

@tech_savvyact If all of their metrics are “normalized” or “adjusted”, you already know everything you need to

@austin_lebahn If they lead with MAU you already know everything you need to

Mitchell Green, the co-founder and managing partner of Lead Edge Capital has a way of quickly cutting through the noise of company presentations. He calls it, "The Hierarchy of BS". After cold-calling 10k+ companies, this is the exact framework he uses to make quick decisions.

@sohaventures Seriously. Reminds me of @BigJohn043 thread where he outlined the common characteristics & flaws of LMM CIMs. Seems like that would be a good starting point lol.

@austin_lebahn Someone needs to do this for small business deals

Great points. As a (relatively) new father, I really resonate with #1. Despite not getting as much volume of time with them, by putting my phone away & being completely present for the hour or two I have with them, it feels very meaningful. Certainly a daily habit I will never stop.

we did a podcast with Keith Sousa (youth psychologist) a few months back on raising a family and managing a demanding career. I have two young kiddos and here are some notes that I find pretty helpful: - trade quantity for quality of presence. 45 minutes of uninterrupted floor time beats two hours of half-attention. - lead developmentally, not punitively. don't try to coach a behavior change mid-meltdown. park the correction. have the real conversation when everyone has access to their prefrontal cortex and put the ownership back on your kiddo. - don't pave the road. there's a healthy use of resources (a tutor when a kid is struggling) and an unhealthy one (calling the school to change the grade). know the difference. - reframe failure as data and tell your own failure stories! kids pay closer attention to the stumbles than the wins because those stories humanize you and show the path isn't a straight line up and to the right. - fill your own cup first. you often give your best to work and bring the leftovers home. model balance, because your kids are watching how you treat yourself. - fwiw, if your kids are older and you have some regret, Keith was emphatic that it's never too late. own it, be vulnerable w/ your grown kids (a letter often lands better than a call), and then actually change the behavior. a dramatic reboot without follow-through does more damage than the original absence.

Pretty strong signal for deal value & count in Q1 2026. The jump in strategic & VC deal activity, despite macro headwinds, suggests a renewed confidence. Curious if resilience will persist for (potential) rate hikes, & how much of the volume is purely driven by AI investment.

@the_P_God “Not walkable” Brickell? Downtown? Coconut Grove? Wynwood? South Beach (south of 5th)? Won’t negate the other characterizations since they are purely subjective (driving sucks though).

@forcesfrom2006 @the_P_God I won’t deny that the city has some of the worst drivers I’ve encountered. However, what you outlined isn’t specific to Miami. The neighborhoods I listed have a high propensity of walkability (check the Walk Scores & the sheer volume of people walking around as evidence).

@austin_lebahn @the_P_God yeah i love walking on the sidewalk and almost getting hit by a larper in a tesla trying to make a u-turn…..

Miami asks the question what if a city is not walkable or driveable and is filled with the worst people

@FelixRTpm @the_P_God The density of restaurants & convenience stores would like a word. In all honesty though, the other neighborhoods listed are perfectly walkable. Check the Walk Score on each.

@austin_lebahn @the_P_God Wynwood? that was a good joke lol

@moneyfetishist How does this routine change when you are traveling (bc I know you travel a lot)? I have no issues with sticking to a solid health routine when at home, but traveling always brings more challenges. Would love to hear your thoughts.

HOW TO AVOID DECISION FATIGUE AND ACTUALLY BE HEALTHY WITHOUT MAKING IT YOUR ENTIRE PERSONALITY I need to address something before we start because I can already see the replies forming no I do not track the vaginal microbiome reports of my partners no I am not Bryan Johnson no I do not have a team of 30 doctors measuring the elasticity of my corneas every morning while I drink a smoothie that costs more than your rent and contains the ground-up hopes of a Peruvian shaman I am a guy who eats well and has a system. that's it. the system is about to sound insane because I'm going to describe it in detail and anything described in detail sounds insane. if I described how you brush your teeth with the same specificity you would sound like a psychopath. "I apply 1.5cm of paste to the bristles at a 45-degree angle and work in small circular motions starting from the upper left molar." you do this every day. it takes 2 minutes. it is completely normal. it only sounds unhinged when you write it down. keep that in mind for everything that follows my last post about this was topic extremely autistic. I am aware. I do in fact go outside. I have friends. I drink soft drinks sometimes. I have conversations that do not involve psyllium husk. I am a normal person who happens to have structured the boring parts of his life so that the interesting parts get his full attention. that is the entire thesis. the system runs in the background. the life happens in the foreground. if you finish this post and conclude I am a joyless machine you have confused the backstage for the show also I've been doing some version of this since I was 14 or 15. this is not something a podcast taught me last year. the principle, remove decisions, keep it simple, make it sustainable, has been the same for over a long time . I just didn't have the vocabulary to explain why eating the same things every day made me feel better than standing in front of a fridge 3 times a day experiencing a philosophical crisis about yoghurt. the vocabulary is new. the habit is old now the average person makes roughly 35,000 decisions per day. 226 of those are about food. not strategy. not capital allocation. whether to eat the yoghurt or the toast every one costs cognitive energy. your prefrontal cortex depletes across the day as decisions stack up. there's a famous observation about judges granting parole at 65% after a meal break and near 0% right before. same judges. same crimes. the only variable was how many decisions they'd made since they last ate. your brain physically degrades its decision quality as the day goes on and every meaningless choice you make before 9 AM accelerates the decline the goal is not to build a routine the goal is to remove decisions here is how I do it MORNING: ZERO DECISIONS I don't eat breakfast. this is a decision I made once and never make again. thousands of decisions eliminated by deciding one time. done instead I drink an iso clear protein drink. 25g protein. tastes good. this matters, everything in your system has to taste good or you'll abandon it. the gym bro drinking chalk mixed with regret quits in 2 months. the person who actually enjoys their shake does it for years. adherence runs on enjoyment not discipline. discipline depletes. enjoyment doesn't the iso clear is made the night before. same time I make my gym shake. both in 3 minutes. morning: open fridge, take it. no blender. no measuring. no thinking. 4-5 minutes saved daily. 24 hours per year. a full day back because you made a drink 12 hours earlier supplements at the same time every day. 20 grams of creatine. yes 20. most people take 5 and wonder why they don't feel anything. creatine is the most researched supplement in existence with the most consistent positive data on strength, cognitive function, and recovery. 20g is the loading protocol that most people do for a week and then drop to 5. I never dropped. my body tolerates it. talk to your doctor if you want but 20g is what I take and I'm telling you the difference between 5 and 20 is the difference between "I think it might be working" and actually feeling it. plus vitamins, whatever else. same spot. taken with the iso clear. one action. decisions were made on Sunday. done SUNLIGHT FIRST 30 MINUTES dead serious your eyes have cells that talk directly to the clock in your brain that controls your entire hormonal day. cortisol, melatonin, energy, sleep, all of it gets set by when your eyes first see real light. morning sunlight produces a cortisol spike that makes you alert and focused. this is the good cortisol. you want it high in the morning and low at night if the first light you see is your phone screen at 7 AM in a dark room you've set the clock wrong and no amount of coffee fixes it. the coffee masks the problem. it does not solve it step outside. 10-15 minutes. costs nothing. does more than any supplement on this list FOOD: SAME THINGS EVERY DAY sounds miserable. it's freedom. no thinking about food 21 times a week. all decisions made once on Sunday. the rest is assembly 6 EGGS DAILY boiled. cooked Sunday. 12 per batch, lasts 2 days. complete protein. all 9 essential amino acids. choline for brain function, your brain needs choline to make the neurotransmitter responsible for memory and focus and most people are deficient. the cholesterol thing was debunked years ago. your liver makes 1-2g daily regardless of what you eat. eggs don't move the needle. why 6? because of the six-pack obviously. the science is secondary. the joke is the reason PROTEIN PORRIDGE buckwheat or spelt flakes (Buchweizen/Dinkelflocken) or oat flakes (Haferflocken). mixed with protein shake, psyllium husk (Flohsamenschalen), chia seeds (Chiasamen) buckwheat isn't wheat. it's a seed. lower glycemic than oats. slower energy release. no 11 AM crash. spelt has more protein than regular wheat and a broader mineral profile psyllium husk is the fibre engine. one tablespoon = 5g soluble fibre. it forms a gel in your digestive tract that does three things simultaneously first it slows glucose absorption which stabilises your blood sugar so you don't get the energy spike and crash that makes you useless at 11 AM and sends you looking for sugar to fix the problem that sugar caused second it feeds your good gut bacteria. your microbiome runs on fibre the way your car runs on fuel. most people eat 10-15g of fibre daily. you need 30-40g. the bacteria that protect your immune system, produce serotonin, and regulate inflammation are starving in most people's guts because the modern diet is fibre-deficient at a level that would horrify any gastroenterologist who looked at it honestly third and this is the one most people don't understand: it lowers LDL cholesterol for all of you who get your health information from TikTok and need this in small words: LDL is the bad cholesterol. it's the stuff that builds up in your arteries and eventually blocks them. when your arteries block, blood can't reach your heart or brain. that's a heart attack or a stroke. you die or you wish you did. lowering LDL means less buildup. less buildup means your arteries stay open. open arteries mean you continue living. that is the entire thing in 4 sentences here's how psyllium does it. your liver produces bile to digest fat. bile is made from cholesterol. normally bile gets reabsorbed in your intestine and recycled back to the liver so the liver doesn't need to make more. psyllium binds to that bile in your gut and carries it out of your body. gone. your liver now needs to pull cholesterol from your blood to make new bile. your blood LDL drops. not because you're blocking cholesterol production. because you're forcing your liver to use more of it. the mechanism is elegant. your body already knows how to lower its own cholesterol. the psyllium just forces the process by removing the bile your liver was going to recycle. average reduction is around 7% which doesn't sound dramatic until you understand that every 1% drop in LDL corresponds to a 1-2% reduction in cardiovascular event risk over time. 7% compounded over decades is the difference between a heart attack at 65 and not having one it also keeps you full longer with fewer calories because the gel expands in your stomach and triggers satiety signals before you've overeaten. non-negotiable in the system chia seeds, omega-3, fibre, protein. they absorb 12x their weight in water. they go in the porridge. you don't taste them. they do their job quietly. the ideal employee base is prepackaged. add-ins portioned Sunday in 7 containers. during the week: grab one, mix fresh, done. 2 minutes. I tried cooking this in bulk. texture after 3 days is somewhere between wallpaper paste and regret. dry prep, mix fresh. solved BERRIES blueberries, raspberries, blackberries. rotate by season. the anthocyanins in berries cross the blood-brain barrier and accumulate in the regions responsible for memory and learning. people who eat berries regularly show measurably slower cognitive decline. they also just taste good which is why they're actually on the list. into the porridge or the shake BROCCOLI most nutrient-dense vegetable per calorie. contains sulforaphane which activates your body's master antioxidant defence system. anti-inflammatory. being studied for anti-cancer properties. plus vitamin C, K, folate, fibre. steamed or roasted with dinner. if you eat one vegetable make it broccoli. if you eat two make the second one also broccoli GREEN TEA OVER COFFEE good gunpowder green tea (Grüntee). green tea has L-theanine which is an amino acid that produces calm focus. caffeine alone gives you alertness plus anxiety plus crash. caffeine plus L-theanine gives you alertness plus calm plus sustained attention. it's measurably better on cognitive tasks than either compound alone coffee spikes cortisol. first thing in the morning you're adding a cortisol spike on top of your natural awakening cortisol. that's the jittery anxious energy people mistake for productivity. green tea doesn't do this also nettle tea (Brennnesseltee) and herbal tea (Kräutertee) throughout the day. hydration with benefits rather than plain water for 14 hours and before someone asks: yes I do drink espresso. I'm not a monster. but my first espresso is around 10 AM. not 7. not the moment I open my eyes. your cortisol is naturally highest in the first 60-90 minutes after waking. drinking coffee during peak cortisol doesn't make the caffeine work better. it makes your body produce less natural cortisol over time because you're supplementing what it was already doing. you build tolerance faster and the coffee stops working. by 10 AM your natural cortisol has dipped and that's when the caffeine actually adds something instead of doubling what's already there. I delayed my first coffee by 3 hours and the same espresso that was doing nothing at 7 AM now actually works at 10. same coffee. different timing. completely different effect SLEEP while we're here: stop trying to sleep more. start trying to sleep better everyone obsesses over 8 hours. 8 hours of bad sleep is worse than 6 hours of good sleep. the quality is the variable not the duration. if you're lying in bed for 8 hours but you're waking up 4 times, never hitting deep sleep properly, and staring at your phone until the second your eyes close, you're getting 8 hours of garbage and wondering why you're still tired the single biggest improvement I made to my sleep was the pillow. I use a Blackroll recovery pillow. I am not affiliated with them. nobody is paying me to say this. I don't care about the brand. I care that it's the first pillow I've used where I wake up without neck tension and actually feel like I slept instead of like I spent 7 hours in a wrestling match with my own spine. the pillow supports your cervical spine in whatever position you sleep in and maintains the alignment that keeps your airways open and your muscles relaxed. most pillows are either too flat or too thick and your neck compensates all night which means your muscles are working while you're supposed to be recovering. bad pillow = 7 hours of low-grade muscle activation that you experience as "I slept 8 hours and I'm still tired" the other basics: room completely dark. I mean completely. tape over the standby lights on electronics. blackout curtains. your skin has photoreceptors. even light hitting your arm can disrupt melatonin production. room cold. 16-18°C. your core temperature needs to drop for deep sleep to initiate. a warm room prevents the drop. no screen 30-60 minutes before bed. the blue light suppresses melatonin. everyone knows this. almost nobody does it. I am also guilty of this sometimes. I'm being honest not perfect improve the quality of the 6-7 hours you're already getting before you try to add an 8th hour of the same bad sleep. the 8th hour of bad sleep is not helping. the first 6 hours done properly would be enough THE JUICE STACK beetroot juice (Rote Beete Saft), minimum 250ml daily. the nitrates convert to nitric oxide which dilates blood vessels, drops blood pressure, and increases oxygen delivery. professional cyclists use this as a legal performance enhancer. the improvement is measurable within hours of drinking it. 3% better endurance in trained athletes, up to 16% in untrained people. 3% sounds small until you realise Olympic medals are decided by less than 1% sour cherry juice (Sauerkirschsaft), mixed with the beetroot so it doesn't taste like a garden accident. tart cherries have the highest natural melatonin of any food plus serious anti-inflammatory compounds. reduces muscle soreness after training. improves sleep quality. the combination of beetroot + cherry gives you vasodilation plus anti-inflammation plus recovery plus better sleep in one drink pineapple juice (Ananassaft), small amount with protein-heavy meals. contains bromelain which breaks down protein in the stomach. helps digestion noticeably within a week. not a lot. just enough coconut water (Kokoswasser), natural electrolytes in ratios closer to human blood plasma than any sports drink. post-training or when dehydrated. the rehydration solution that existed for thousands of years before Gatorade added blue food colouring to sugar water and called it science THE STUFF THAT TASTES TERRIBLE black seed oil, unfiltered, cold-pressed (Schwarzkümmelöl), one tablespoon daily. the anti-inflammatory and immune effects have been documented across dozens of clinical trials. there's a reason every traditional medicine system from the Middle East to South Asia has used this for centuries. it tastes like concentrated displeasure. I chase it with the cherry juice. the combination tastes like something a medieval apothecary would prescribe for a curse. it works unpasteurised sauerkraut (nicht pasteurisiertes Sauerkraut), best probiotic source that exists. billions of live bacteria per serving. the key word is unpasteurised. pasteurised sauerkraut is dead bacteria. tastes the same. does nothing. your gut microbiome communicates with your brain through the vagus nerve. 90% of your serotonin is produced in your gut not your brain. the bacteria in fermented food directly affect your mood, immunity, and inflammation levels. I prepare it as coleslaw, olive oil, apple cider vinegar, seasoning, shredded carrot. side dish instead of punishment. gut thanks you within 2 weeks. my taste buds are the same ever since im 4 or so. my microbiome has better priorities COOKING coconut oil (Kokosöl). high smoke point. doesn't break down into toxic compounds at high heat the way seed oils do. seed oils heated past their smoke point produce aldehydes at concentrations that are genuinely alarming. coconut oil stays stable. eggs. vegetables. everything. I do not put it in coffee because I am not insane. cooking fat. use it as a cooking fat WATER drink more. you are dehydrated right now. your performance is degraded 10-15% and you think this is your baseline because you've been dehydrated so consistently you forgot what hydrated feels like. bottle at desk. bottle in car. bottle by bed. if you have to think about where water is you won't drink enough SUGAR AND SWEETENERS I use artificial sweeteners for most things. I don't move enough daily to justify pure sugar everywhere. construction worker burning 4,000 calories? go ahead. I sit in meetings and stare at spreadsheets. the cherry juice has real beet sugar (Rübenzucker) and that's fine. one drink. small dose. the dose makes the poison. Paracelsus said this 500 years ago CALORIES I don't track them daily. track during cut or bulk phases when precision matters because you're pushing your body in a direction it doesn't want to go. outside those phases: the system does the work. I eat the same things. I know the ballpark. scale plus pattern recognition. not MyFitnessPal and 15 minutes of data entry that makes you want to throw your phone into the ocean. the person who tracks religiously for 90 days then eats pizza for 2 weeks has a worse annual average than the person eating the same things daily and adjusting by trend. consistency over precision. always GET A TRAINER if you have the means. in person. a real human who watches your form and adjusts your programme based on YOUR body. the trainer is the equivalent of hiring an accountant instead of doing your own taxes. technically you can do it yourself. practically you'll make mistakes that cost more than the accountant. a good trainer fixed more in 3 months than I fixed in 3 years alone. if your trainer can't explain why you're doing what you're doing find a different trainer THE SYSTEM everything bought weekly. portioned Sunday. same spots. during the week I assemble. I don't decide. the decisions happened once. execution is automatic same clothes. same order. same spots for keys, wallet, phone. the 4 minutes looking for keys is not 4 minutes lost. it's 4 minutes of cognitive disruption that takes 10 more to recover from because your brain switched modes never follow this like a nazi. wake up late? skip the extra sunlight just go for a walk later in the day. the world doesn't end. the routine serves you. you don't serve the routine. the moment it's a source of stress you've defeated the purpose the goal is not an optimised morning the goal is an empty mind when the real work starts and then when you go out just have fun tbh because the system ran in the background and the foreground is where you actually live that's the point Your welcome

Global RE deal volume is up 12% YoY & showing signs of recovery. However, investment is becoming more selective. Areas tied to digital growth & specialized infra seem to be the most attractive. Meanwhile, Senior Housing is down ~50%. Perhaps quality>quantity is the new norm.

@PEoperator Apollo & Citadel have had some of the cleanest corp swag from what I’ve seen from colleagues. No pics off hand unfortunately.

What companies have the best swag? Links or pics if you have them