Average X Guy

Turns out all these “bottleneck” semis were just meme stocks

Time to buy the dip on drone stocks?

You can’t just buy any stock at any price. No matter how much you believe in the story, narrative, fundamentals, etc. where and when you buy matters. So many of these stocks that have pulled back and gone through major corrections are still significantly higher than they were just months ago. You can have the best story, fundamental trajectory, or narrative in the market but once too much gets priced in, volatility ramps higher and corrections happen. If you bought months ago, you’re likely still up a significant amount. If you chased the hype and focused only on where the stock might go instead of where the price already was, you’re likely getting crushed. That’s the difference between buying a great company and buying a great company at a good price. You don’t need to catch the exact bottom but you do need to understand where a stock is trading relative to its history. That doesn’t mean these have topped forever, but it does mean that many people who chased are now underwater and need 50-100% gains just to breakeven. Price matters, entry matters.

The Volatility Window Is Opening. ⚠️ If you are 100% long and completely unhedged heading late July- August, history says you are playing with fire. The VIX seasonality matrix starts to shift now. We are currently sitting at the absolute seasonal floor for volatility (mid-July). But look at what happens next: The Upcoming $VIX Seasonality Timeline: - Late July: Volatility bottoms out and begins a sharp upward reversal. - August - September: A steady, aggressive climb in market turbulence. - October: The historical seasonal peak for market liquidations and fear. The calm before the storm is officially ending. Everyone's fav question, what should we do??! My 4-Step Defensive Playbook for the Next 60 Days: 1️⃣ Raise Cash: Take profits on extended, overbought themes. 2️⃣ Sector Rotation: Move capital into low-beta, defensive sectors. 3️⃣ Own Hedges: Layer into relative downside protection while premiums are cheap. 4️⃣ Be Nimble: Keep your trading size small and honor stop losses strictly. Complacency is at an all-time high, but the historical data tells a completely different story. This is the roadmap. Many will look back in hindsight and say - I wish I listened to Prof. Keep this chart pinned to your screen to remind yourself why cash is a position over the next 8 weeks.

Iran’s Navy: ‘To pass through the Strait you need our permission. Not the tweets of some idiot’