Kaya Aykut

Next post is out.

@rakyll Given his record, It would've been so easy to assume good intent and just ask @Steve_Yegge 'metric or heuristic?'. This many knee-jerk refutations instead make most ppl feel he had a point. Token count between 2 people is noise. Between 2 orgs, it has signal.

Unpopular opinion: If you think tokens burned is a productivity metric, no one should take you seriously. Imagine you are a top 0.0001% writer and they are only counting the tokens you produce.

That's like saying Apple will build all the apps. They only will build things that are core to platform, like QR code readers, or reminders. Making sw is the highest leverage model companies can offer today. It'd be silly not to go after Lovable or Boly once you have Claude Code.

no they won't. living beings do not grow infinitely because volume (cells to feed) grows faster than surface area (exchange throughput). And growing surface area equally fast (think fractals) isn't sustainable because of coordinations headwinds. komoroske.com/slime-mold/

@Alfred_Lin This is called Cynefin framework 4th quadrant. (It takes a while to appreciate that something as abstract as Cynefin is actually the opposite of corporate bullshit. Blink your eyes until you do) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_f…

A CEO from one of our portfolio companies shared this with their team. I’m re-sharing it with their permission, because it resonated and reflects what all founders and CEOs should be communicating. -- We are living through a period of compounding change. And in moments like this, the biggest risk is no longer making the wrong decision. It is moving too slowly while the world moves around you. There are two paths. We can play defense: - Protect what we have - Optimize what works - Wait for clarity It feels safe. It isn’t. Or we can play offense: - Learn faster than the environment changes - Use new tools to solve old problems in better ways - And create entirely new strategies and businesses That’s where the opportunity is. Challenge yourself to do things faster and better than you have ever attempted. Stay uncomfortable. Stay on the front foot.

New level of tool use in GPT 5.4 in Codex: In full access mode, writes an Apple script to get an API-less action done over the browser, when told "you can do that yourself." 😇

I wish there was a long term polymarket on this being the Antropic equivalent of “no Google search in China” moment. It would be lovely to watch how the western zeitgeist values… eeerm.. its own values. Also how opportunistic zeitgeist thinks @sama is.

@LucasGageX People may be looking at pixels but they're seeing reflections: of themselves, others, or sparks of human emotion behind them. What activates mirror neurons is the knowledge that there's a human behind them.

Bad news: Actors are cooked. Stuntmen are now obsolete. Good news: Actors will no longer be seen as "stars" but mere models. They will return to their proper place in society, as they were in ancient times: at the lowest rung.

"Not every x is a y" is not a refutation of "Most x's are y's". The argument, and the zeitgeist conversation in general, isn't about whether there will be things exclusive to humans. It is whether there will be enough $$$s and purpose that we can produce share with those things.

This piece is interesting. I also think it's deeply flawed. One thing I've noticed, and h/t to @arijoe19 for articulating it so well, is that computer code is a really structured language, and software is a defined problem space with a lot of defined patterns, so software people tend to think everything is a pattern and AI being really good at their job makes them overestimate how well it can do everything else. The truth is there is a lot more disorder, unpredictability, and humanness in so much of our lives — and our work — that I don't think AI applications will always (or even often?) be able to account for. Matt, for instance, lists journalism as a job in trouble thanks to AI (not that our industry needs more trouble). And it's true that AI can read documents fast and do incredible research and even write clean copy and edit -- it will probably eliminate or reduce the need for some jobs! But you know what it can't do? It can't work a source over for years on end. It can't / doesn't / won't bear witness to live events. It reminds me of the famous Good Will Hunting scene, where Robin Williams is chastising Matt Damon about being such a smart ass but not being able to describe what the Sistine Chapel smells like. Damon is the AI. I say this as someone who has experimented a ton with the latest versions of ChatGPT Matt is writing about here. I can feed it limitless writing of mine from my archives and then have it write a take about a new current events story; I've tried, actually, because if it were good it would save me hours of work every day. But it is *always* useless. Not sometimes; always. Why? Because the AI still can't predict when certain emotional elements of a story drive me away from a previously held position; because it doesn't know what happened to me that week, or what stories I've read about the topic at hand, or an experience my grandmother had that my family always talked about that informs my view on, say, antisemitism or Israel. It just predicts where I'd land on an issue based on what I've written before, which is actually not a great way to understand humans who are always moving in new and different directions. It just doesn't know. People think humans are finite numbers of neurons and processes and thoughts and learning but I think that is wrong — we are all constantly changing every day, every second, thanks to new inputs and new experiences. So yes, I buy that AI will be able to read documents better than your typical lawyer. But can it build a relationship with a client? Or look at a jury and guess what argument might move them to "guilty"? Or know when to cross the lines with a judge or when to step back? I don't really think so. And those limits, to me, are so under-discussed in this dialogue that it kind of discredits everything else.

@signulll @Jessicalessin @sama you're both processing reality fine. just different realities.

@Jessicalessin @sama either you or i have lost the ability to process reality.

This is excellent comms from @sama. An eye popping stat and an easy to understand claim. I hate, though, this budding movement to frame the business model debate as elitism versus anti-elitism. When chatbots launched with subscription business models, I thought it would be a great new era of consumer tech with blended ads and subs, much as we've seen with Netflix, Spotify etc. It would be a shame if the OpenAI vs. Anthropic rivalry wipes that away and makes it seems like subscriptions are only the domain of the elite. So many other consumer businesses show otherwise, and they are better off for the balance.

*exactly* what you want exists in VS Code CC extension. It is dangerously-skip-permissions, but you can switch on / off during session. Not only this, answer to any tool use is now sticky for the project or for the user scope. How is what you want different than dangerously-skip-permissions though?

My #1 feature request for Claude Code should add is stop asking me every time for confirmation by default, like "can I check this folder", yes brother you can do anything you want Like maybe for writing ask me permission Add some [ just go ] mode Even with [ accept edits on ] it still asks me permission 1000 times per day I just want you to run and keep going mostly And no I don't feel like running it with --dangerously-skip-permissions

@paulg This was so adamantly falsified for so many non-tech billionaires already that I wonder if you were aiming for an argument to sooth those fears, or for a somewhat naive "the case for the benevolent tech billionaire".

It's still rare for tech billionaires to do this. Most do just want to refine their gadgets. That habit is what made them billionaires. But unfortunately I can no longer say that they all do.

The rational fear of those who dislike economic inequality is that the rich will convert their economic power into political power: that they'll tilt elections, or pay bribes for pardons, or buy up the news media to promote their views.

@IterIntellectus Please post sources for this so I can convince smart caring and diligent green folk.

yes, asian and african rivers produce 95% of ocean plastic but nobody asks where the plastic comes from. plastic recycling is a scam. always has been. the industry knew since 1974 it “cant be justified economically” they funded the recycling campaigns anyway because the alternative was banning plastic. only 5-6% of US plastic actually gets recycled and europe isnt better. the EU exports 1.1 million tonnes of plastic waste per year, 3 million kg leaving every single day. 31% goes to turkey, 16% to malaysia, 13% to indonesia, all labeled “recyclable” most plastics cant even be recycled to begin with (thousands of types, different chemical properties). and for the few that can, the output is lower quality and more toxic than virgin plastic. you literally degrade the material each cycle until its worthless. so what happens to the other 95%? western countries ship it to southeast asia and africa under the label “recycling exports” with the receiving countries promising to recycle it in their stead for a price, but those countries dont have facilities either. so they burn it or dump it in rivers. every 20 minutes, a 10-tonne truckload of plastic enters the ocean in indonesia alone. it may look like indonesians pollute more but that’s because we ship them our garbage and they have no infrastructure to handle it. china used to absorb it all. when they banned imports in 2018, the west just redirected to countries with weaker regulations. malaysia, vietnam, philippines. the map below shows the result. you sort your trash so you feel like youre helping, the plastic goes on a boat, gets burned in a village without emissions controls, poisons their air and water, flows into their rivers, enters the ocean, and in your food and water. you feel good about the plastic you recycled and never think about it again but you end up eating it anyway. then we ban straws and plastic bags and call it environmentalism

It’s not the phone, it’s the OS. Last year’s flagship phone (16 Pro) skips frames, fails to render icons, crashes native apps every day. Plus, it’s for some visual glass gimmicks no one asked for, nor anyone understands the problem they solve. Thanks for giving voice to this. I say in hindsight this will be seen as the year Apple’s decline started and people say I’m exaggerating. 🙄

So I bought a $2,000 iPhone 17 Pro Max 1TB and it's the buggiest Apple experience I've ever had First the data transfer failed after 5 minutes, then it had to reset itself, and I had to do everything again Then after resetting it just would NOT detect the old phone to transfer data from Then when it did work after trying for ages, it took 6 hours to transfer but kept saying "4 minutes left" (???) Then when it was done I couldn't go on hotel WiFi because to open the captive WiFi portal to enter the password for the hotel WiFi I needed a browser but I didn't have a browser (cause EU law) But when I opened Safari, it'd ask me what browser I wanted (cause EU law), but then immediately fail because it didn't have internet to download the browser (catch-22) so I could never login to the hotel wifi to download my browser (???) Ok then I connected to 5G hotspot of other phone, worked Then when I got it working none of my apps would download, just all apps say "Waiting..." Then I went to the App Store to at least install Telegram to chat with my friend, but tapping the download button would then show the rotating loading spinner and then reset to the download button repeatedly So I gave up and now use my old iPhone I don't think anyone at Apple actually goes through this process anymore or they just don't give a shit how absolutely user hostile the Apple experience has become Tim Cook should be ashamed

@signulll Why would on platform sharing create more watch time then off platform? The counter argument is, People have limited total time to spend on yt, and social would steal from watch time.

youtube is the only social platform that still refuses to let you, you know, be god damn social. there are no dms, no native sharing, no way to toss a short to a friend without escaping into some other app like a fugitive. they’re sorta leaving so much on the table cuz the share loop is literally off platform. tiktok, insta, almost all of their competitors have insane viral loops in app. adding this would likely cause watch time to spike immediately. if i were a VP at YT this would be the first thing i’d ship. if they do ever ship this, the youtube ceo should at least throw me some damn stock for stating the obvious. at least a god damn tote bag. but preferably stock. someone tag him… although i doubt he reads x.

@Wisdom_HQ (Apostrophe removal was only to advise the role)

@ekurutepe Hasn’t codex turn into a verb yet?

Some gamble, some drink, some do drugs. Me, I do Codex.

@signulll Toute noir missing a thing. Longer mortgage terms are to housing affordability what building more roads is to easing traffic: they look like relief, expand demand, and leave the underlying constraint untouched.

can someone explain to me the actual upside of a 50 year mortgage over a 30 year one? on a median $450k home with 20% down & a 7% rate, the 50-year saves about $264/month but you end up paying a massive amount more in total interest (almost 2x). the monthly relief feels marginal & doesn’t solve the real issue, which is the lack of housing supply. worse, i think it will likely simply increase prices & a bunch of other second order effects. what am i missing?

@mortifera Şarapnelden kaçınma kısmının çekiciliği neden? Normal (elden) bol bol şeker dağıtsan çocuklar “ah beee keşke şu şekerleri toplarken bir de şarapnelde kaçabilseydik” demezler sanki…

Keşke bir bahçem olsa ve dev bir mancınık inşa etsem. Şeker bayramlarında mahallenin çocuklarına uzaktan şeker gülleleri sallardım. Onlar da bir yandan şarapnellerinden kaçmaya çalışırken diğer yandan çikolata ve ve bayram şekeri toplarlardı. İki taraf da kazanırdı.

@jesslivingston @paulg Not at all! These are the quintessential expressions of Romantic Quality as it is defined in "Zen and The Art of Motorcycle Maintenance". Romantic Quality also produces most delicious yet-not-3P-repeatable meals! /lecturingtweet 🤷🏻‍♂️

@paulg LOL so embarrassing!

Me: How much salt do you put in your tomato sauce? Jessica: Not too much. But not too little. Me: How long do you cook it for? Jessica: Not too long.