Random Husky

@baseballot How does that work in states with runoff elections, like Georgia, where the 2022 runoff was less than 45 days after the general?

This timeline would appear to run afoul of federal law, which requires military and overseas ballots to go out 45 days before any federal election. 45 days before August 11 would’ve been June 27.

@tetrarosie The old NC-13 voted for Harris. Nickel would've won.

and i just know in this universe nc-13 would’ve been tied or some bullshit

a very underdiscussed political tidbit is that if north carolina didn’t redistrict, we’d have a 218-217 house in 2024 could you fucking imagine

@AbolishTedCruz @nikicaga Ironically, this would force them to dilute deep red seats making it easier for ballot measures to pass in every district

@nikicaga They're dismantling the St. Louis district next cycle. It would probably break in a 50% statewide liberal vote, but let's not forget that they would've drawn an all red map if Callais came earlier

Ironically it would also make it impossible for Republicans to pass anything via amendment, as St. Louis would just vote against it lmao

@RedistrictNet You obviously can't change the partisan makeup. No other reason for this other than you hate minorities.

#NEW: A lawsuit has been filed against Denver Public Schools over its 2024 school board map, alleging it was drawn with unconstitutional racial intent. The complaint heavily cites the Supreme Court's 2026 decision in Louisiana v. Callais in seeking to have the redistricting plan overturned. publicinterestlegal.org/press/pilf-sue…

@maxtmcc You can make a Douglas/Jefferson Trump-Biden-Harris seat that Dems would've won in 22 and easily held in 24

I’m sure Dems would’ve preferred that the swing seat the commission drew be anchored in the still left-trending, upscale burbs south and west of Denver, rather than the working-class Latino suburbs of the north that cost them a seat in 2024

Adams County is a more working class, less educated county in a metro area that skews pretty high ed and wealthy, and that means in some maps you can see it from space. Compare Adams to neighboring Arapahoe, which is much wealthier and more educated

@hunterb73 @AlDefinitely DWS in FL-20

@AlDefinitely the only other one after these two that i see as a possibility is larson losing in CT

The next round of vulnerable Democratic incumbents, both on August 4, are: Shri Thanedar, Michigan 13th, vs. State Rep. Donavan McKinney Wesley Bell, Missouri 1st, vs. ex-Rep. Cori Bush

@KJVPopulist they did not need a supermajority to redistrict

This move has cost the national Dems like 5 US house seats now

@Nebraskademsoc 2010s mo-02 would've been trump-harris

St Louis suburbs shifting left in 24 isn't talked about much

@joshuawx_ Needless to say he should have few problems there this year.

What the hell did Ossoff do to them

@LillianBelle2 @AbolishTedCruz She won Tillamook even though she didn't represent it pre-redistricting!

@AbolishTedCruz Shes the over performance. The DRA way of showing swings isn’t the best

It’s pretty depressing that only one House Democrat can outperform in Oregon nowadays.

@NC_Patri0t @fauxpolitk Do any of the bend districts flip in 24?

Oregon State House Republican gerrymander. Final results (2020 president) are 31R 29D. Requested by @fauxpolitk (senate next)

@earlyvotedata I think eliminating the no county split rule would need an amendment thougu

This is what Iowa could look like. The state has a non partisan agency that creates the maps, which they’ve had for decades. I believe the agency be eliminated through a simple majority vote by the legislature.

@_fat_ugly_rat_ Paxton just surpassed his raw vote total from round 1

And there it is. As if this result couldn't get any more humiliating for Cornyn.

@Taniel Worth noting that if it does pass, this might make Missouri Rs hesitant to crack STL for 2028

Missouri Republicans are organizing a referendum that would make citizen initiatives basically impossible to pass: boltsmag.org/missouri-amend… They’ve decided to schedule it for August, not November: missouriindependent.com/2026/05/22/mis…

@montymarkland @ElectionCenter_ Are you familiar with the 17th amendment?

Yes, for the US House and Senate, unless their State Constitution otherwise binds them. The US Constitution was written by men broadly opposed to political parties. One citizens’ recourse in this case would be to elect different representatives to their state legislatures. Let’s get specific. The South Carolina general assembly is within US Constitutional parameters to arbitrarily alter the process of US House and US Senate candidate nominations,and completely ignore parties. Nothing other than constitutional amendments or new laws change this fact. It is ironclad. But if the people of South Carolina decided they didn’t like what the legislature was doing, Article 2 and 3 of the South Carolina Constitution give the citizens the operational tools to throw our the members of the legislature and put new legislatures into the General Assembly House and Senate. Why is it different? Art. 1 and Art. 2 guarantee elections by ballot to the citizens for both the State House and State Senate is the main reason. No primaries required, any group of motivated citizens can go unselect any member of the SC Ga. The US Constitution only guarantees that citizens of the states have the right to elect US House representatives every 2 years and makes no provision or requirement for primaries as the nomination method. Compare with South Carolina, there is no real barrier to entry to the biennial balloting for the State Senate ($406) and State House ($208), trivial amounts compared to Federal office. Back to Federal, there is no law or element of the US or SC Constitution that requires US Senators be elected by anyone in particular and can simply be appointed by the state general assembly and so on. These are just examples of why the US is a Republic, not a Democracy. The states have the right to send representatives to US Congress, the citizens have the right to vote on US House candidates in a general election, no right to a primary, no right to vote for US Senators, but full rights to vote for their own state legislators at State Constitution prescribed intervals and very low barriers to entry for candidates.

These are legally cast votes for an election with a date already set. There is no precedent that I can find that justifies throwing out perfectly legally cast votes for no urgent reason. The constitution protects an individuals right to vote, and throwing out their legally cast ballots would almost certainly violate that.

@montymarkland @ElectionCenter_ So could the legislature ensure one party wins every seat simply by only nominating candidates of that party?

In theory, nothing absent the state’s own Constitution. The US Constitution doesn’t care about parties nor party primaries. The US Constitution leaves US House elections up to the states per time, manner and place. The only Constitutional restrictions are “qualifications,” “apportionment,” and “district parity.” State Houses have full US Constitutional authority to: 1) eliminate primaries, nominate House candidates by the legislature and voters vote on the legislature’s nominees in the general election. 2) eliminate primaries and require caucuses. 3) eliminate primaries and require conventions. 4) eliminate primaries and create a new mechanism for determining nominees for the general election. 5) Any combination of the above. 6) Anything similar I didn’t think of here. 7) The US Constitution has no interest in political parties.

@montymarkland @ElectionCenter_ What stops a legislature from ordering a new primary just because they don't like the result?

Courts have thrown out entire elections and forced them to be held again. But thats less important than the critical element of any tort (actual damages) or an injunction (imminent harm). Since the party primaries proceed either way for all the other races, and SC DoJ and SoS have said everyone who voted by any means for a Congressional candidate would be able to do so again in the delayed primary election — what is the imminent harm (injunction) or the actual damages (tort)? There isn’t any. To make the legal hypothetical even more extreme: The SC Ga/state legislature could ban party primaries for US House seats on Tuesday instead of passing a new map and select party nominees by convention and the US Supreme Court would say: “AOK!”

@FlordianBoy5 @daveweigel They only made an exception for running for president and vice president

@daveweigel Didn’t DeSantis try to alter that law so that he could run for president in 2024?

One reason they’re only considering, and not jumping in — Florida has resign-to-run. A whole bunch of South Florida Dems quit their jobs to run in the 2021 special and lose to SC-M.

@LillianBelle2 @wavesinWA Is the 35th the only Obama-Trump x2-Harris legislative district in the country?

@wavesinWA Dems aren’t winning any of these seats, lol. The 35th is definitely a leftover district. Mason is just in an odd position in general.

Democrats didn’t field a candidate in the 6th. To get a Senate supermajority before 2028 now requires winning a seat Trump won by at least 25 points.

@GokuTrunks37 @NY_LBSS @interstatejuche Utah map has nothing to do with the VRA

@NY_LBSS @interstatejuche They can just say "yeah we made a black district so now we gotta redraw per scotus." So they can its just a matter of them doing it or not.

If that Utah map gets reversed, there's a good chance it becomes statistically impossible for dems to take the house.