Jon Lourie

It's crazy that I got to interview this guy, honestly one the best convos I had on prediction markets. Was a real privilege

I know what the next meta is 🫢

Diving in further on this, Per Reuters, the attacks damaged infrastructure at Ras Laffan plant in Qatar, enough to cut LPG exports by 13%. In the same reporting, QatarEnergy also said the strikes wiped out 17% of LNG export capacity, damaged 2 of 14 LNG trains, and hit 1 of 2 gas-to-liquids facilities Iran's South Pars gas field and the nearby Asaluyeh processing hub were also affected by Israeli strikes. Worth noting, South Pars supplies roughly 70–75% of Iran’s gas production and Qatar’s Ras Laffan is the world’s largest LNG hub. Does this directly affect the price of Oil? After the latest attacks across Gulf energy infrastructure, Brent crude briefly jumped above $119/barrel before pulling back, with a peak of $119.13 This matters because petrol pricing tracks crude much more directly than LPG does. So when traders/speculators see attacks on energy sites in Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the first big move is usually in oil benchmarks and then into gasoline/petrol crack spreads, freight, and pump-price expectations. Why oil moved harder than LPG headlines alone would suggest? This is an important point because the oil sentiment isn't just based on LPG losses but rather, pricing a wider regional risk premium such as, ⇨ Direct damage to energy infrastructure ⇨ Risk to export routes ⇨ Fear around the Strait of Hormuz ⇨ Fear that more oil facilities get hit next Now this isn't saying LPG prices push Oil prices up in a direct mechanical way because Petrol does not go up because LPG plants got hit as such but rather, Petrol goes up because the same conflict that hurt LPG exports also raised the perceived risk to many factors affecting Petrol supply and pricing directly.

If you want an easier way to provide liquidity on Polymarket it's pretty easy on Facts

Great write up from @PredictionDeskX Reality is most Polymarket liquidity rewards have been captured by people running custom bots. we're looking to make it easier for everyone else. predictiondesk.xyz/research-hub/n…

Cancel your plans tonight and watch this interview!

TODAY: We’re going LIVE on X with @totalistrading A newly minted Y Combinator startup building the first, full derivatives layer for prediction markets. The platform could fundamentally change how prediction market trading works. Joining us: co-founder @ImTheBigP 6PM EST.

BITCOIN UPDATE: Bitcoin nearly touched $76K today. When we last looked at the market, odds of $85K were just 16%. Now prediction markets are pricing: 52% chance BTC hits $80K 20% chance BTC hits $85K Is this the start of the next leg up… or just a bounce before a deeper correction?

NETANYAHU UPDATE: A brand-new account just sized $145,000 into “Netanyahu out by March 31.” Potential payout: $4M Meanwhile, odds of Netanyahu being the next Israeli PM have cratered: March 9 it was at 61% Now odds are at 42% “NO” looks interesting here.

One of the biggest misunderstandings of where AI/Automation is headed from a development perspective is the belief that every single role/task needs to be automated Whilst it'll be helpful to have tools get through redundant tasks, some roles are simply only valuable because of the natural context an human can apply

Ceasefire markets looking rather interesting re current developments from News and ground developments Odds on a ceasefire between the US and Iran across the following dates are as followed, ⇨ March 31, 89c NO ⇨ April 15, 77c NO ⇨ April 30, 65C NO ⇨ May 31, 52c NO ⇨ June 30, 43c NO A few days ago, we put an analysis out on why a Ceasefire between Iran and the US was rather unlikely due to complexities around the context of the conflict, especially because there's more than 2 Countries directly involved. Now that we on the topic, another Ceasefire market worth taking a look at is the Ukraine v Russia situation. Current odds range across, ⇨ March 31, 98c NO ⇨ April 30, 94c NO ⇨ June 30, 83c NO ⇨ Before EOTY, 62c NO

One of the best oil trader on Facts right now 🛡️⚔️ +61% on the "WTI won’t hit $110 by end of March" market. You can view his token and explore profiles of other top traders on Facts here: tokens.facts.trade/marketplace

The infamous “Netanyahu out by March 31” market is now pricing just 3% odds. $14.8M traded in the last 24 hours. One of the cleaner bond trades we’ve seen in a while. As information becomes harder to verify, expect more setups like this. Meanwhile the market still prices a 41% chance he’s out by end of 2026. We'll see what happens.

On today's episode of The Interview, our guest is @thenarrator. He has a well known presence within the PM eco via his work @TrendleFi and many other areas! Should be a good one, no pun intended...Keep reading to hear what he has to say How did you get into Crypto? I’ve been in crypto for the past 9–10 years, since around the ETH ICO but I got more involved on a day-to-day basis in early 2017. There were very few projects at the time, so I spent a lot of hours on Reddit and various forums just trying to understand what it was all about The first thing that captivated me was the price action and watching those movements in real time, the opportunity to make life-changing money as a college student. That’s honestly all that mattered to me at first But the more I got involved in different groups and crypto channels, the more I realized crypto wasn’t just about making money, it was a technological revolution happening in real time. That shift in perspective pulled me deeper. I started paying attention to what was actually being built, what was being innovated and transformed across industries. That’s when crypto stopped being a trade for me and became something I wanted to build around When and How did you stumble upon Prediction Markets? I stumbled on prediction markets about two years ago through someone who later became my co-founder on a prediction markets project building on Bitcoin. At the time, I had taken a small break from crypto and I was extremely burned out from spending too much time online and grinding on projects nonstop This person introduced me to Polymarket and honestly, my first reaction was: This is just another gambling platform. But I’m the type of person who doesn’t rush to conclusions. I like to sit with things, examine them from different angles, look into the mechanics, understand how they work, and most importantly, think about the value they provide to people The more I dug into it, the more I saw that prediction markets weren’t gambling at all and that they were a fundamentally new way to surface truth and aggregate collective intelligence. That realization changed everything for me, and I’ve been deep in this space ever since How’d you describe Prediction Markets to anyone who’s just hearing about it? I’d describe prediction markets as a place where you put your money where your mouth is on real-world events. Instead of just having an opinion about whether something will happen you can actually trade on that opinion The beauty of it is that when money is on the line, people become a lot more honest and rigorous with their thinking. So what you end up with is a market that produces some of the most accurate real-time probabilities on what’s going to happen in the world. It’s like a crowdsourced truth machine, and it’s often more accurate than polls, pundits, or traditional forecasting models What single biggest advantage do Prediction Markets bring to the average person? Access to better information, That’s it. The average person is drowning in biased takes, clickbait headlines, and narratives pushed by people who have zero skin in the game. Prediction markets cut through all of that because the prices reflect what people actually believe when their own money is at stake. You don’t need to be a trader to benefit from that. Just pulling up a prediction market and seeing that an event is priced at 72% tells you more than reading ten op-eds. It democratizes access to high-quality information What market narratives do you actively trade or prefer to trade? I gravitate toward macro-political and geopolitical markets such as elections, policy decisions, regulatory moves, international conflicts. I am not the biggest trader but these are areas where I spend a lot of time doing research and forming views I also pay close attention to crypto-native markets because I am very big on crypto projects and have been for the past 9-10 years. Things like protocol launches, token listings, governance votes, and ecosystem milestones. Being embedded in CT gives me an edge on information flow and sentiment shifts that haven’t been fully priced in yet What’s your base thought process to approaching these trades? It starts with thesis formation. I’m constantly reading  news, CT, telegram groups and forming probabilistic views on outcomes before I even look at what the market says. You need a number in your head before you see the market price, otherwise you’re just anchoring to whatever everyone else thinks Once I have my own probability estimate, I compare it to the market. If there’s a meaningful gap say I think something is 80% likely and the market has it at 60%, that’s where I start looking for an entry Can you give an overview on what tools you use, what metrics you like to look at and what conditions prompt you into entering a trade? The two tools I mostly use for insights are Kalshinomics and future dot fun. Both are great because they consistently put out high-quality data and insights that help you form better views on markets. Kalshinomics in particular does excellent breakdowns of market dynamics and event-driven analysis, and future.funsurfaces a lot of interesting data points around traders and markets you won’t find elsewhere What are some of your worst losses and how did that impact how you trade? My worst losses came from being biased by other people or copy trading profitable wallets. At the end of the day, no one wins 100% of their bets. It’s better to enter into a position by doing your own research so that you become confident with the bet and size you’re putting behind your position What single biggest problem do you think Prediction Markets have atm? One of the biggest problem is that most platforms start too late in the user journey. They present you with a trading interface and expect you to already have a view, already understand probability, and already be comfortable putting money on an outcome. That’s a massive ask for most people. Besides that, there are other problems such as liquidity in markets and resolution How’d you reckon these problems then be solved? You solve it by building the top of the funnel that doesn’t currently exist. That means polls, opinion feeds, leaderboards, reputation scores and all the social infrastructure that lets people engage with predictions before they ever place a trade Think about how sports betting apps work. They don’t just show you a sportsbook, they give you news, stats, analysis, social features, and then seamlessly integrate betting into that experience. Prediction markets need the same playbook but adapted for a broader set of events The conversion funnel should look something like: read → react → track → score → follow → trade → share. You need to capture people at the opinion stage first and let them engage with events, form views, track how good their predictions are and then gradually convert them into traders. The platforms that figure this out will win The other piece is language. The industry needs to fully commit to the shift from “betting” to “trading.” That’s not just marketing, it’s a fundamental reframe that changes how regulators, institutions, and mainstream users perceive the product. The platforms that nail both the UX funnel and the narrative framing will be the ones that break through to mainstream adoption On the flip side, what’s an underexplored/underrated concept within Prediction Markets? Tokenized prediction market positions as DeFi collateral. This is something I’ve been thinking about a lot. Right now, when you take a position in a prediction market, that capital is locked and doing nothing else. But if those positions were tokenized and composable, you could use them as collateral for lending, as building blocks in structured products, or even as inputs for other prediction markets Imagine you hold a position that’s 90% likely to resolve in your favor. That’s essentially a near-certain future cash flow and there’s no reason you shouldn’t be able to borrow against it or use it productively elsewhere in DeFi. The capital efficiency gains would be enormous and would attract a completely different class of participants to PM platforms Where do you see the overall Prediction Market ecosystem in say, 12 months from now? Twelve months from now, I think we’ll see serious consolidation and differentiation. The platforms that are just reskinning the same trading interface with no unique value proposition will either die or get absorbed The winners will be the ones that either own a specific vertical (sports, politics, crypto) or build a genuinely differentiated UX that solves the funnel problem I mentioned. I also expect to see institutional interest pick up significantly. The US election cycle showed the world that prediction markets produce better signals than traditional polling, and that’s not something the financial and media establishment is going to ignore. We’ll likely see partnerships between PM platforms and major news organizations, and possibly even regulated PM products entering traditional finance. On the infrastructure side, I’m bullish on prediction market protocols becoming core DeFi primitives where any app can embed PM functionality without building from scratch What accounts would you recommend people follow to get familiar with Prediction Markets in general? For getting up to speed on PMs, I’d recommend following the official accounts of the major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi to understand what markets are live and how the space is evolving Beyond that, follow traders who share their reasoning publicly, not just their wins. You learn a lot more from someone who explains why they took a position than from someone who just screenshots their P&L. On the research and commentary side, look for accounts that sit at the intersection of crypto and forecasting. People who think about prediction markets as an information tool, not just a trading venue. Nate Silver’s commentary is relevant too since he’s been bridging the traditional forecasting world and crypto-native PMs And honestly, just follow the markets themselves. Pick a few events you care about, watch how the odds move, and try to understand why. That’s the fastest way to build intuition Anything else you’d like to share? Just that prediction markets are still incredibly early. We’re at the stage where most people still confuse them with gambling, the same way people confused crypto with a scam in 2015 But the underlying thesis that markets are the most efficient mechanism for aggregating information and producing truth is one of the most powerful ideas in economics. It’s not a question of if prediction markets go mainstream, it’s when For anyone reading this who’s on the fence: start by just following markets. You don’t need to trade a single dollar. Watch how prices move around events, compare them to what the pundits are saying, and you’ll quickly see why this space matters. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it. And if you’re building in this space: focus on the user journey, not the trading interface. The technology is there, The liquidity is getting there, What’s missing is the bridge between someone having an opinion and becoming a trader

JUST IN: Benjamin Netanyahu out as Prime Minister of Israel this month? Seems not, Polysights has detected large quantities of smart money buying No on @Polymarket

How long until the OSINT accounts get banned on X for pumping prediction markets with fake news.

Someone is going to plug this into pumpfuns tokenized agent feature and have it trade the 5-min & 15-min BTC up/down markets. The full stack for prediction agents is basically here. Honestly probably easier than crypto trading bots because of: • binary outcomes • fixed expiries • simpler decision surfaces

The range of queries coming through Facts AI right now is pretty cool. Every now and then the data also surfaces some interesting signals. factsai.org

PM whales using retail as exit liquidity in the order books

Will it reach 85K 🤔