Jon Lourie

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Jon Lourie

Jon Lourie

@basedlourie

Head oracle @polyfactual. Building @factsdottrade. Ex @CoreumOfficial

Web3 Katılım Temmuz 2024
2.5K Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
Is Saylor Ready to SELL BTC in 2026? On May 5, Saylor and CEO Phong Le officially ended the "never sell" era The company has moved to active treasury management, with Bitcoin per share as the new main KPI through 2033 On May 23 in his interview with Natalie Brunell, he said: "Not unlikely we'll sell some Bitcoin before end of the year" But Polymarket traders remain skeptical about June (only 38%) Makes sense - Strategy is still a net buyer: 843,738 BTC (+24k last week, BTC Yield YTD 12.6%) Saylor quickly added: even if they sell a small amount (likely for STRC dividends), they'll buy back 10-20× more ("math over ideology") The market is pricing in the first sale in the second half of 2026, not in the next 5 weeks
Polyfactual tweet media
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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
How @robinmarketsxyz raised their first $400K from top crypto VCs. @0xFudrick shares: > What actually works > What doesn't > Valuable takeaways This is gold for prediction market builders and founders.
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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
1 week into the ACE round: 36 million $POLYFACTS raised from our holders across public and private contributions. > Almost 4% of total supply clawed back > Treasury-owned supply is now approaching 7% For the first time, Polyfacts holders were able to acquire real equity in the company. Having our earliest supporters actually aligned with the project’s growth feels incredible. This is real ICM.
Polyfactual tweet media
Polyfactual@polyfactual

x.com/i/article/2054…

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
Polymarket figured out something powerful: News + engagement + financial incentives = one of the most addictive information primitives on the internet. Great conversation with the founders of @PolyFundr.
Polyfactual@polyfactual

Most new Polymarket traders lose money before they ever develop a real edge. The founders of @PolyFundr designed their evaluation process to help traders improve, not just rank them. So far, they’ve seen newer traders improve quickly in a rules-based, risk-free environment.

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
Most new Polymarket traders lose money before they ever develop a real edge. The founders of @PolyFundr designed their evaluation process to help traders improve, not just rank them. So far, they’ve seen newer traders improve quickly in a rules-based, risk-free environment.
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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
“Prediction markets are just casinos” Is probably one of the biggest misconceptions right now. @BagCalls explains why the real edge on Polymarket is fundamentally different from gambling. From our talk with @FundingPredicts
Polyfactual@polyfactual

“Many prop traders print in simulation, then underperform the moment they know they’re trading live capital.” Our convo with @FundingPredicts on why switching traders between A-book & B-book can actually hurt performance.

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market may be dramatically underpricing “NO” here. Even if a ceasefire is announced, this market requires the 7-day average of 60 transit calls. Mines and insurance problems could keep traffic far below “normal” for weeks. From our conversation with @prophet_notes
Polyfactual@polyfactual

SMART CALL ON OUR STREAM JUST PRINTED MONEY @prophet_notes said that NO on “Iran Closes Airspace by May 8th” was very underpriced. During the stream YES, was trading at 22%. It has since collapsed to 2%. $1,000 into NO during the stream would be $1,256 profit (+25.6% over a few days)

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Jon Lourie
Jon Lourie@basedlourie·
Very excited to announce that @polyfactual has officially opened the ACE round for $POLYFACTS. For the first time, holders can gain exposure to both the token and equity in the underlying company through the ACE framework. Bridging the gap between community-owned tokens and real company ownership. Huge thanks to @MetaLeX_Labs for making this possible.
Polyfactual@polyfactual

x.com/i/article/2054…

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
币龙CoinLoong
币龙CoinLoong@COINLOONG·
开始预热了! #预测市场 6月份的世界杯,即将打响。 Polymarket 生态龙头, 是 @Polymarket 首批资助项目之一。 她@polyfactual 正式启 $POLYFACTS 的 ACE 轮融资。 通过 ACE 框架,持有者首次可以同时获得代币和底层公司的股权。 对社区好的项目! 才是好项目!有价值的项目! 坐稳了,即将起航!
Polyfactual@polyfactual

x.com/i/article/2054…

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
Most prop firms are layered on top of third-party tech. @FundingPredicts built theirs from the ground up. @drippy_eth explains why prediction markets required a completely new proprietary stack. And why so few firms were willing to be first in prediction market prop trading until now.
Funding Predicts@FundingPredicts

The Funding Predicts Beta Competition is now live! Earn points and compete for: • Over 1.4m in funded accounts • 10K+ in cash prizes 14 days to prove you can trade. Powered by @Polymarket Join now → fundingpredicts.com

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
SMART CALL ON OUR STREAM JUST PRINTED MONEY @prophet_notes said that NO on “Iran Closes Airspace by May 8th” was very underpriced. During the stream YES, was trading at 22%. It has since collapsed to 2%. $1,000 into NO during the stream would be $1,256 profit (+25.6% over a few days)
Polyfactual tweet media
Polyfactual@polyfactual

"This could be one of the most volatile markets this week” from our talk with @prophet_notes Trump China visit (May 15): > US aircraft spotted in Beijing > Market pricing in 90% chance > But rising global tensions could derail it fast We’ve already seen this meeting get pushed once… Don’t assume it’s a lock.

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
"This could be one of the most volatile markets this week” from our talk with @prophet_notes Trump China visit (May 15): > US aircraft spotted in Beijing > Market pricing in 90% chance > But rising global tensions could derail it fast We’ve already seen this meeting get pushed once… Don’t assume it’s a lock.
Polyfactual@polyfactual

LIVE with @prophet_notes, who runs the top Prediction Market Newsletter x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
TODAY: We're going LIVE on X at 6pm EST with @FundingPredicts, @BagCalls & @drippy_eth. Funding Predicts is the leading prop firm for prediction markets, funding traders with up to $100,000 after passing evaluation. We’ll break down: → How to start trading with them → The rise of PM prop firms → And much more Don’t miss it!
Polyfactual tweet media
Funding Predicts@FundingPredicts

The First Prediction Market Prop Firm Pass an Evaluation and get up to $100,000 to trade

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Jon Lourie retweetledi
Polyfactual
Polyfactual@polyfactual·
TOMORROW: Going LIVE with @prophet_notes at 10AM EST. Prophet runs the largest Substack in prediction markets, followed by major traders and protocols. We’ll break down the latest geopolitical markets, Iran, oil, and where odds may be mispriced.
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