Citizen_BB

@ArmchairW Without drawing an equivalence, I am interested in the parallel to the Korean War, because of issues of badly misjudging an enemy and undergoing a retreat (see David Halberstam, The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War 2007).

As I've pointed out on several occasions already, this was not a carefully hedged decadal wind-down of a broken client state as in prior US defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Here the US military was driven from much of the Mideast in a matter of weeks by force of Iranian arms.

@ArmchairW It is interesting to think of a military bureaucracy that actually grew unfamiliar with the concept of defeat. Ironically, a military bureaucracy that has a poor conceptual knowledge of defeat may have trouble designing, and achieving, victory.

Our military establishment in America has been so mentally destroyed by the privilege of hegemony that they can't even comprehend what defeat actually looks like.⬇️ A concise definition: Victory is when you impose your will on the enemy. A military advisor told this to Trump once because he used that exact phrasing when discussing the war with Iran early on. Has the United States and/or Israel imposed their will on Iran? No, we failed to accomplish almost every objective we set forth to accomplish. I set this out at length earlier this week. Have the Iranians imposed their will on us? Yes, absolutely. They drove the United States from the Persian Gulf, seized control of the Strait of Hormuz, deterred Israel from taking any action against them without full American backing that will not be forthcoming, and broke the US Navy's blockade of their global commerce. That isn't just victory, it's an unqualified, decisive victory that is already reshaping the Middle East around Iran's rising power. The first step to recovery is admitting that you have a problem, and yet I see nothing but cope on this website and in the broader public sphere from the American camp. I had imagined that in any war with Iran we would see a similar dynamic as that playing out between Russia and Ukraine - one in which Iran would put up a stiff struggle but ultimately fall to superior force. The notion that the United States would suffer a catastrophic failure of resolve, abandon the Persian Gulf without firing a shot, poke at the Iranians with standoff weapons until we ran out six weeks later and then sue for a ceasefire and prove to not even be able to enforce a blockade is a level of collapse that I actually find offensive as a veteran. But this collapse is, however, the natural and inevitable result of the toxic morass of soft corruption, safe promotions, stupid politics, indiscipline, careerism, phoned-in planning, half-assed training, incuriosity and macho gym bro hubris that the US military has absolutely FOUNDERED in since the end of the Cold War. And the people in charge of said military - trust me, "Secretary of War" Pete Hegseth is very much a symptom and representative of a broader culture here - are currently being allowed to spin this debacle as a victory instead of being purged from the ranks en masse as they deserve and as they must should we wish to restore American power going forward.

@CraigGurianNYC A much-needed point that's drastically underemphasized in the current political moment.

2 facts remain. First, the *no* enforcement position remains deeply unpopular. Second, the chances of SCOTUS blessing the idea that enforcement is prohibited in homes, workplaces, streets, schools, hospitals, prisons, and all other public places (i.e., everywhere) is zero. (2/2)

ZM seeking to tighten enforcement of NYC’s sanctuary laws (per @C_Sommerfeldt) + most Americans being appalled by Trump’s illegal overreach has many (on here) entertaining delusion that a new era of immigration-law non-enforcement beckons. But, (1/2) politico.com/news/2026/02/1…

@CraigGurianNYC @peterbakernyt It would seem those advancing this argument must explain why Biden's fairly obvious cognitive decline was not well-covered prior to the Jun. 27, 2024 debate. I did not personally experience the debate as surprising since I had been paying attention before then.

Finally: “Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate.” From @peterbakernyt. nytimes.com/2026/04/13/us/…

@SanDiegoKnight I think an issue that's glossed over in the analysis is that the average person in the United States, including the average native-born citizen, arguably does not generate government revenue on a net basis. That's potentially what our massive annual fiscal deficit means.

This Cato ‘immigrants pay more taxes’ flex + Indian chart is peak cherry-picking. Impressive numbers… until you actually look under the hood. 🧐” 1. It’s median household income, not individual or per-capita — and Indian households are structured differently • The chart (and the “twice as much” claim) uses households, not people. Indian-American households are larger on average (~3.0–3.8 people vs. U.S. average ~2.5) and far more likely to have multiple full-time high earners (dual STEM/medical professionals is common). en.wikipedia. • Indian Americans still have high personal earnings (median ~$85k for ages 16+, ~$106k for full-time workers per 2023 Pew), but the “almost twice” headline evaporates when you adjust for household size and number of workers. This is a classic statistical sleight-of-hand when comparing groups with different living arrangements. 2. Extreme positive selection bias … this is the cream of India’s elite, not “immigrants” in general • Indian Americans aren’t a random sample of India’s 1.4 billion people. The vast majority arrived via H-1B, EB-2/3, or student visas …hyper-selective for advanced degrees and high-skill jobs. You’re comparing the top ~0.1–1% of India’s talent/IQ/education distribution to the broad U.S. average (which includes everyone from McDonald’s workers to retirees). • India’s own per-capita income and education levels are far lower. This doesn’t prove broad immigration is economically magical; it proves cherry-picked high-skill immigration works for the selectees. Second-generation outcomes are strong but show some regression toward the mean, and chain migration/family sponsorship often dilutes the skill level over time. 3. Cato’s overall “immigrants pay more taxes” claim has well-documented methodological holes • Cato (a libertarian think tank that favors more immigration) attributes welfare benefits received by U.S.-born children of immigrants to “natives,” not the immigrant parents. This understates immigrant fiscal costs. The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) and others note this flips the picture: when you count the full household burden (including kids), immigrant-headed households use welfare at higher rates than native-headed ones. • Cato aggregates all immigrants (high-skill Indians + low-skill groups + illegals). The net positive they find is heavily driven by the high earners. Other studies (National Academies of Sciences, Heritage, etc.) have found first-generation immigrants often impose net costs, especially low-skilled/illegal cohorts. • Their data ends before the post-2021 border surge effects fully hit long-term budgets. 4. H-1B-specific issues (the main pipeline for Indian success) • Many Indian immigrants in tech come via H-1B, which has documented problems: outsourcing/body shops (e.g., Infosys, TCS), wage suppression (foreign workers often paid less for similar roles), and ethnic nepotism once Indians reach management (preferring co-ethnics for hiring/promotions). This displaces U.S. workers and depresses wages in STEM. • Fraud allegations are common (fake credentials, benching workers, etc.). Critics argue this isn’t “adding value” so much as arbitraging cheaper labor and networks. 5. Other drains and context • Remittances: Indian Americans send massive sums back to India (India receives over $100B+ in remittances annually, a huge chunk from the U.S.). That’s money leaving the U.S. economy. • Cost of living: Indians are heavily concentrated in high-cost metros (SF Bay, NYC, etc.), where nominal incomes are inflated anyway. Adjust for purchasing power and the gap shrinks. • The post uses Indian success to defend a general “immigrants = net positive” narrative from Cato. But Indians are ~1.4% of the U.S. population and an outlier. Broad policy implications (more low-skill immigration, open borders, etc.) don’t follow from one high-performing subgroup.

@allenanalysis I think an issue that's glossed over in the analysis is that the average person in the United States, including the average native-born citizen, arguably does not "generate . . . government revenue" on a net basis. That's potentially what our massive annual fiscal deficit means.

In 2023, the most recent year studied, immigrants made up 14.7 percent of the United States population. They earned 17.4 percent of the income. They paid 17.3 percent of the taxes. That means immigrants pay taxes at a higher rate than their share of the population. They earn more in income per capita than the average American. They generate more government revenue per person than the average native-born citizen.

The Cato Institute is a libertarian think tank. It just published a 30-year study showing immigrants paid 14.5 trillion dollars more in taxes than they received in government benefits. Every single year. For thirty years. Without exception. The country was lied to. Here is what the study found.🧵

@CraigGurianNYC I wonder if the whole thing might be resolved by ranking First Amendment rights as an essential political right taking precedence over other interests, following, perhaps, John Hart Ely's "Democracy and Distrust: A Theory of Judicial Review" (1980).

From my analysis of the Mayor's veto message, just published: remappingdebate.org/node/2484 "Fuller clarification of the Mayor’s position depends in significant part on whether the press will follow up on some obvious questions for him in light of his veto." "Are there no circumstances where he believes that security perimeters should be used in connection with demonstrations at schools and other educational facilities?" "If there are some circumstances, how narrowly should those circumstances be drawn?" "Would he have been satisfied if the Int. 175-B did not go beyond schools in defining educational facilities?" "Whether or not one agrees with the Mayor’s assessment of particular instances of police overreach, it certainly is the case that, historically, police going beyond the careful balancing policy that Deputy Commissioner Gerber described has been a non-trivial problem. Does the Mayor not have any ideas– in the context of the NYPD, not the alternative context of a Department of Community Safety – of how to erect more secure guardrails against police overreach?"

@CraigGurianNYC @urbenschneider @JustinBrannan An opportunity to assert some appropriate state-level power, and for the fiscs of states with good (non-compromised) governance to benefit disproportionately?

NEW from @urbenschneider in Remapping Debate: More cheating on fed taxes would flow through to state/local returns, but officials apparently haven't tuned in. @JustinBrannan, former NYC Council Finance Comm Chair: "smart to start thinking about it." Link in next post. 1/2

@simpatico771 Seems like as to air incursions, the geography would be bad news for Iran in a total war. But in a war that the adversary sees as limited, in which the adversary is sensitive to losses?

Iran is extremely mountainous which means air defense is very difficult as radars never have clear line of coverage and enemy planes can occasionally carve routes through valleys, etc., to penetrate somewhat into the country. But this is always fraught with great risk and certainly does not represent blanket "air superiority/supremacy" etc.

@_whitneywebb Do you think he's still in command?

if you think he is the good guy, try to grow a new brain

@ArmchairW How can we verify that the Iranian claim is correct?

USAF tries to fly downtown in Iran hours after Trump claims that the Iranians have no air defenses left and instantly loses an F-35. I get the feeling we're going to be lobbing JASSMs from standoff for a long time to come after today.

@jletanaka I don't understand a part of their argument. It seems they draw a distinction between unfunded I.Z. and funded I.Z., and say the state should have a preference for funded I.Z.

Oh, we aren’t just using it. We are *mandating* it.

@mark_slapinski Why don't you simply cite to, or explain, one of those credible reports?

@ArmchairW What would be the military consequences if the U.K. government denied the U.S. the right to conduct bombing missions out of English airbases?

B-2s flying out of CONUS because they're terrified of them getting hit if they stage from Diego Garcia - which the Iranians can absolutely reach and will throw a lot of hardware at if we start parking $2 billion each irreplaceable strategic asset bombers there.

@AdvRKmathur @alon_mizrahi Wise words.

@alon_mizrahi Something clearly happened — but until there’s confirmation, this is where rumors outrun reality

Ok, something happened to Netanyahu 100%

@jletanaka I absolutely agree, but also see no alternative political movement of any real size that can do it, either.

Sorry prog friends but

@richimedhurst What is "CP"?

Feel like some people don't grasp that during war time it's normal for the people running the show, whether that's Sayyid Mojtaba or Mileikowsky, not to make extended public appearances. Their CP teams are constantly moving them around. Remember also that rumors and disinformation are also part and parcel of a war on this scale.

@KimIversenShow What evidence is there that Iran is afraid of admitting the death of a leader or unwilling to have a successor promptly take over?

It’s looking more and more like Israel doesn’t have a leader and neither does Iran. They all might be dead. We’re left with Donny, clearly confused, and trying to figure out who he’s fighting with and against.

@jletanaka With the level of income/wealth inequality and general economic suffering as it is in this country, things that put upward pressure on household utility bills should be avoided---or mitigated. We have to stop thinking about aggregate national wealth as the sole metric.

Phenomenal evidence that CA’s NIMBYism is, in fact, a national security threat

@jletanaka Wise choice.

I’m not an expert, but I can tell you why I never considered studying the Israel/Palestine/Iran conflict when I had the chance: Everybody lies like they breathe. All the time. Forever.