Brad

@charliebilello $NVDA earnings are the bubble

Forward P/E Ratios... Costco $COST: 45 Walmart $WMT: 36 Nvidia $NVDA: 17 Which one is the bubble?

@RampCapitalLLC Around the same price as the ultra filtered milks like core power. Even at Costco theyre priced at somewhere over three dollars per bottle. Smart shoppers could just buy a bottle of skim milk for less than a dollar and get more protein.

Protein “water” (contains milk) $3.50/can Who’s buying this?

@Clement_Ang17 @ZorTrades The cycles are definitely faster and the momentum is getting more narrow and more aggressive. Just this week… DELL, ARM, CRDO all up nearly 50% in four sessions. Meanwhile SNDK, LITE, NVDA take a breather.

Agreed! Compared to a year or two ago, the cycles feel faster, the rotations are becoming much more subtle - it used to be something like large caps to small caps, growth to value. Now it's one sub-theme of AI tech to another sub-theme. It constantly feels like elephants squeezing in and out of keyholes to capture alpha. It certainly feels more challenging now 😆

Is it just me or does my X feed suddenly feel extremely fearful/bearish? I'm bewildered, did I miss something?

@MikeZaccardi One way or another it has to...

BofA: AI hyperscaler FCF should increase substantially in 2028

@jeffreygtc @dampedspring Because they expect share price appreciation.

@dampedspring Why should anyone pay multiples of the E, if they don't receive any of the E back thru dividends?

Something to consider when comparing 2000 and 2026 p/e - 101 If I had two companies company A expects these earnings over the next 4 years $1 $2 $4 $6 Company B $2 $4 $5 $6 Then both companies expect to have identical earnings path forever more. For simplicity let's say the year 4 on earnings are worth $80 in PV Company A first three years are with $7 and B are worth 11 So A trades at $87 and B trades at 91 A has a p/e of 87 and B has a P/E of 45.5. Based on NTM earnings My basic picture is company A is SPX in 2000 and company B is SPX in 2026 Do you see they are equally rich or cheap in true valuation but their P/E's are radically different?

@MikeZaccardi And that likely excludes Amazon, Meta, and Google…

IT Capex Now Accounts for More Than a Third of S&P 500 Capex Spending Torsten at Apollo

@DoubleWideCap OCD like me... I've done that many times. About a 20:1 risk:reward

Prolly gonna do something stoopid into the close. My point PNL ends in a .50. "Oh, I'll just scalp one contract for two ticks..."

@dampedspring You mean they aren't feeling the wealth effect of the Nasdaq at ATH's?!

Not enough Pie for Walmart shoppers it seems

@jedimarkus77 Guess the optimism was priced in following a $2 trillion addition to market cap over the past month and a half

Oh well. Sorry $NVDA. Maybe after Jensen preaches some more "news" or SoftBank buys a few billion in call options....

@aishahhasnie @LiveSquawk Who got rich on insider information this time? Iranian leadership? Journalists at Reuters?

The White House is pushing back on this Reuters report. According to someone directly involved with the negotiations, this report is false.

@BoringBiz_ @kylascan But did you see their mission?

SpaceX IPO valuation implies a 93x revenue multiple and you don’t even have a P/E ratio because the company has negative earnings

@jaykaeppel It almost seems like analysts haven't learned the fact that Capex eventually becomes placed in service and starts hitting the P&L...

I'm all for it. But, yeah, whenever anything is "expected" regarding the markets, I instinctively get a little nervous.

@BobEUnlimited If total data center construction spend is now greater than commercial construction spend it seems as though it’s pretty impactful on the US economy, no?

The AI Investment Impact Myth Many folks hawk the narrative that AI investment is driving the US economy today. Once related imports & the pre-AI run rate of software investment are accounted for, the macro impact is minimal. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-inves…

@KobeissiLetter Gee, I wonder why we are having all this inflation

BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +34% YoY in March, to a record $50 billion annualized rate. Spending on data centers is up +437% since the beginning of 2021, when the annualized rate stood at ~$9 billion. This is also up +688% since the start of 2018, when the annualized rate was just ~$6 billion. Meanwhile, office building construction spending fell -9% YoY in March, to $46 billion, the lowest since 2015. This means that spending on data centers now exceeds office building construction by $4 billion, or +9%. To put this into perspective, office construction spending exceeded data center spending by $65 billion, or +650%, in 2020. AI is fundamentally transforming the US economy.

@RudyHavenstein @DavidBCollum The difference this time is just how big of a market cap increase 30% on today’s NASDAQ is

@DavidBCollum x.com/RudyHavenstein…

Nasdaq is up almost 30% since the end of March. Howbowdah?

@RAEckart @TheStalwart That's part of it for sure... additionally the demand for this type of labor (huge fiscal spending and huge data center Capex) and the fact that domestic supply of this type of labor has been shrinking decade after decade

@bczorb @TheStalwart The employers of those workers appear to have voted to deport those workers.

Man! Look at these quotes from today's NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. There are all kinds of signs out there that not only is inflation warm or hot, but the labor market is re-accelerating and/or tight. Wrote about it in the newsletter: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

@dampedspring When are they gonna turn the buy.exe program on today?

@ZorTrades lol, beating revenue estimates by reporting zero dollars in revenue…

$OKLO

Fantastic information. I strive to reach the point in mastery and self-knowledge that you appear to have reached. If you don't mind... how many years have you been trading full-time for a living? And how many years would you say it took to get past the "stressful" money-chasing phase?

Thank you for the thoughtful question. Speculation and trading can feel lonely and hedonistic if it stays at the surface level of chasing PnL. For me the deeper meaning comes from a few places. 1. Mastery and self-knowledge: Trading is one of the purest ways to confront your own psychology. Greed, fear, ego and discipline. The market reflects them back to us daily. Getting better at trading has taught me to be patient, humble and emotionally stable/calm. I am at peace with my decisions in trading and life. 2. The money isn't the only goal. It is the tool that buys time and choice. 3. At a macro level traders provide liquidity and price discovery. We absorb risk that others don't want. 4. Trading itself: The craft of trading shows beauty in pattern recognition, risk management and probalistic thinking. The hunt and preparation for the next opportunity is fun for me. Trading is like a never ending puzzle. I treat it like a lifelong practice and not just business. I stay grounded by making sure trading supports a simple life and that life is bigger than the screens.

Don't get giddy or complacent keep inching stops and/or take some profits out of the market. Greed causes complacency. Don't be one. Staying long until wrong here but inching stops and taking some along the way is how I am trading this market.