Jimbo

@wolfejosh @threadreaderapp unroll

@danieljwant Daniel when are we seeing the Q4 letter? Looking forward for this gem

See here for our latest Quarterly Letter... prerequisitecapital.squarespace.com/s/2025-10-24-Q…

@TotemMacro @threadreaderapp unroll

In case you’re curious where the losses are, the PE industry has been acquiring and then raiding the floats of c.10% of US life insurance assets. They’ve been filling them with private credit and direct lending, all using the same private ratings agency to misclassify the loans.

@profplum99 Mike I'd be curious if you look at this shutdown as a real time experiment of your theory of passive evolving thru a labor slowdown. Is the pullback in stonk related to federal emp not receiving paycheck? Or its too small to have impact yet?

The USNA has been able to maintain continued operations by drawing down operating reserves, but apparently the cafeteria (King's Hall) will run out of food by Thanksgiving. This would shut the academy for an extended period and possibly result in the first cancellation of the Dec 13th Army-Navy football game since 1929. I am skeptical we would allow the circuses to be cancelled; bread is optional in 2025.

@mark_dow meme stock...multiple of fondamental value, got shaken with lot of bad news lately. Should break higher

Buy or sell?

@RealEJAntoni love this thread. Question on the part time vs full time. If it's seasonally adjusted why is the total not adding up to the headline of 353k?

Jan jobs report🧵- here's what you need to know that the talking heads and gov't statisticians won't tell you, including why the real unemployment rate is btwn 6.3% and 7.4%...

@ForexLive Whats this graph exactly? In billions of $

Canada's population is growing 3% a year and real building permits are steadily trending lower ... what could go wrong?

...Already today, about half of all residents of the U.S. and China are older than 37, while about half of all Europeans are older than 42. stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…

@profplum99 referred to this reality when talking down comparison to the 70s inflation era: As recently as 1973, half of the world’s inhabitants were under age 21. By the end of the 21st century, more than half will be middle-aged or elderly (40 or older). ..

@brandonjcarl @concodanomics Love this post...btw I think you are one of the great follow on twitter. Anyhow I read this article a long time ago and stuck with me. From a conceptual perspective the reasoning makes absolute sense. Wonder what you think about it philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-si…

This is one of my favorite charts to look at. Deposits, Stocks + Bonds held as a % of Disposable Income vs the 10Y inverted Treasury Average Yield. Data is through Q2: recently would be 4.50+. You can immediately see a few key things: (@concodanomics inspired by your 🧵s) 1/6

@brandonjcarl I got to say I never follow investment advice on twitter...as in NEVER. But you got me in this one. Nice analysis and so far playing out nicely

Talkspace is one of the few remaining positions I hold. It’s up 193% so far. While I enjoy macro investing the most, finding a company with a good thesis, product, business, management team and market can afford outstanding value.

@realEstateTrent Does the 'tax free' part really changes something to the answer when we talk about a billion dollar lol!

Where would you move to if someone handed you a billion dollars, tax-free tomorrow?

@GRDecter a third of the mortgages have been renewed already with close to no impact. The trick is simple. Lets day you have 18 yr remaining to maturity, the bank proposes to extand to 35 years with no change in payment. The proverbial kicking the can down the road

Canada has a housing problem.   Maybe worse than the U.S.   - Canada: 70% have a 5-year fixed rate mortgage.   - U.S: 85% have a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.   In Canada the average rate on an existing 5+ year mortgage is 2.79% versus 5.99% today (was 5.11% in June).   When it's time to renew those mortgages, brace for impact!

@stevehouf I'm stunned by how much people waste time over this question. We don't give a damn about a recession or not. The point is stocks give you a horrible return compared to overnight risk free rate, or low risk credit bond.

The “recession” everyone has been waiting for since the Fed started hiking

@JulianMI2 blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/R…

The evidence continues to build that the consumer is cracking!

@LastToTheTParty @JulianMI2 Wow...if this is legit it's kind of huge

@JulianMI2 I sell high quality home improvement. This year is absolutely slammed in a bad way all across North America. Canada and the USA have slowed to a near trickle. I'm talking down 80% over last year's spring.

@fkronawitter1 love this piece. If your hypothesis is right the best trade isn't simply to short 2024 sofr futures in size? not clear the impact on stocks but way too much rae cut priced in

I just published a new "Next Economy" post: - The US economy could see a cyclical trough over the summer - Key: Does the labor market hold up? It seems increasingly possible - I see June/July as window for longs in cylicals and commodities Link to post in bio!

@fkronawitter1 @NeelyTamminga Isn't the student debt repayment starting end of August at the earliest?

@NeelyTamminga I‘m just learning from the best :)

Target warns of softening consumer trends in the ”short term“ What happens to this ”short term“ view once student loan payments restart? 🧐

@profplum99 opening up spotify right now...one of the best track ever

Shine on, you crazy diamond... feels like it's been as long as the LP youtube.com/watch?v=cWGE9G…

@BehavioralMacro after going thru a few of those fights don't you think the market will simply not care unless we default for real...and even then not sure stocks will care no?