Ben
428 posts
Massively short any silicon IP companies right now Claude Mythos just one shotted a perfect PCIe 6.0 controller… there is no moat anymore. If there is an open standard Mythos will be able to read the design docs and one shot it overnight.
State of the AI race: Leading: Google, OpenAI, Anthropic Falling behind: Meta, Microsoft, xAI Given up: Apple, Amazon, Palantir
.@dylan522p gives a deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute: logic, memory, and power. And walks through the economics of labs, hyperscalers, foundries, and fab equipment manufacturers. Learned a ton about every single level of the stack. 0:00:00 – Why an H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago 0:24:52 – Nvidia secured TSMC allocation early; Google is getting squeezed 0:34:34 – ASML will be the #1 constraint for AI compute scaling by 2030 0:56:06 – Can’t we just use TSMC’s older fabs? 1:05:56 – When will China outscale the West in semis? 1:16:20 – The enormous incoming memory crunch 1:42:53 – Scaling power in the US will not be a problem 1:55:03 – Space GPUs aren't happening this decade 2:14:26 – Why aren’t more hedge funds making the AGI trade? 2:18:49 – Will TSMC kick Apple out from N2? 2:24:35 – Robots and Taiwan risk Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Enjoy!
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