Ben Horne

My first Substack post (of many) has finally dropped! Come and get some. I laid out my official 1 year prediction for AI. TLDR: the bubble pops. benjaminhorne.substack.com/p/the-token-bi…

@kylascan Great stuff Kyla. Like you said, it’s one of those dynamics that seems obvious when you say it (the inherently countervailing forces of affordable housing and successful retirements) out loud, yet few people seem to ever acknowledge it. Thanks for doing so!

THE CRISIS BEHIND THE HOUSING CRISIS In today's NYT piece, I wrote about how the housing fight is both about housing *and* retirement. We made the house do two jobs at once, and it's pitting the old against the young.

@DishwasherTag @gabriel1

@gabriel1 yup. twitter seems to be one of the only places left in media where people write for an audience rather than for clicks.

wow i read dads news paper, it's like tiktok for old people every article written to rage bait

@MitchJonez France 3-1

$5000 for one person that correctly predicts the final score of tomorrow's World Cup Semifinal! France vs Spain Entries open until the match starts, good luck!

There’s definitely some room for humor and ribbing here (e.g. performative nature of this tweet, the self-inflicted situation, etc) but last year I had a similar experience where I ended up in the hospital because of stress from overwork. My body got to a point where it basically rejected itself and felt like it was shutting itself down (without going into more detail). It took me an embarrassingly long time to get over the toxic belief that this meant I was a “pussy” who “couldn’t hang in the big leagues.” Thankfully I eventually came to my senses and realized how insane and backwards my lifestyle and perspective on work was. I’ve changed my life a lot since then. I’m still adjusting to my new boundaries (sorry for the therapy speak) but I know for a fact I’m adding decades back to my life. Unless you’re literally a brain surgeon, work is just never that serious. Assuming that this guy’s story is authentic, I wish him the best.

The UFC asking half the country to stay up til midnight for what could very possibly be < 60 seconds of total fight time seems like bad business.

@catboyautist You’re gonna beat Argentina no doubt. They low key would’ve lost tonight if not for Embolo getting booted.

@HighyieldHarry Nailed it. I think England beats Argentina in semis though.

In 2026 NFL playoff terms, Argentina are the Patriots. France and Spain are the Seahawks and Rams.

@ExistentialRish @sriramk @garrytan Doomsday and Spiderman? How old are we bro

@sriramk @garrytan Dune, Doomsday, AND Spiderman all coming out this year chief…

On Nolan's Odyssey

@somewheresy Agreed.

I've noticed people are pretty defensive of acid and its culture because its culture is half of the sell. "Here's an experience you can opt into that you're locked into for 12 hours". And at the end of the day it really just produces "alternative societies" highly reliant on sober modernity. I don't have a problem with it, but American Psychedelia is a passenger princess, and not a driver. Stuff like stimulant abuse and 1980s tier financial cocaine and social boozing is much more respectable because it has a higher chance of building the society that Burners end up hopelessly dependent on with an incredibly high leech:seed ratio.

@tbpn @iscoe “@iscoe tells the story of a guy who's made 7 figures trading Rotten Tomatoes betting markets, and rejected an offer from SIG” @GaetenD 👀

Hedge funds are trying and failing to hire prediction market sharps. "We are just getting crushed by these sharps," said Susquehanna's Jeff Yass. @iscoe tells the story of a guy who's made 7 figures trading Rotten Tomatoes betting markets, and rejected an offer from SIG: "He said, 'Not only am I just making a killing, but I can do things that a big institutional fund can't do.'" "He's a Rotten Tomatoes trader. He trades how a film's going to do on Rotten Tomatoes. He's made 7 figures, easily. He's building models, scraping websites, and he's doing things that SIG, through their corporate policies, maybe wouldn't allow." "And he asked in the interview, 'Could I do this technique?' And they said, 'Yeah, probably not.'" "And this guy, he self-describes as a 'dips**t from the Midwest.' He's like, 'I didn't go to an Ivy League school, and I'm able to outcompete Wall Street with a $600 Lenovo laptop.'" From his appearance on the show last month.

@TMTLongShort “I idolize musk”

I idolize musk but the batty boy ate with this and clocked his tea 💅✨

@Howlingmutant0 Gaetan spotted in the wild @GaetenD

@jiratickets @grok make his head even taller and pointier and put him in a blue kashmir sweater with white collared shirt.

@DKThomp This is why you’re the goat economics and culture writer of your generation. You’re like a heat-seeking missile when it comes to finding true signal. Always asking the best questions. Based based based.

I would love some feedback about my worries of an imminent AI-related market crash: Industrial bubbles are most common when firms get deep into debt. Even with declining free cash flow (chart 1 below), the AI hyperscalers still have less debt as a share of earnings than the typical S&P 500 company (chart 2). But on the institutional/retail investor side ... that's a different story. Look at Chart 3 (all from JPM). Investor borrowing is going crazy: - The amount of debt that investors are borrowing from brokerages to buy stocks, bonds, and other securities rose more than 50% in the last year to record $1.4 trillion. - Assets in high-risk leveraged exchange-traded funds have quadrupled in the last four years. Am I wrong, or does this make the odds of a major AI-related market crash getting alarmingly high in the coming months/year? Between leveraged ETF rebalancing and margin calls, I feel like one moderately bad earnings call—eg, which points to less forthcoming semi demand—could create a cascade of sell-offs And what makes this interesting is that you could have a significant market correction due to all this investor leverage, but it might not be a decisive judgment about the state of AI, at all, even if lots of people interpret it as a sign of a bubble.

@RichardHanania These 3 sentences alone are the most perfect distillation of Vance I've ever seen.

If you have any intellectual integrity, JD Vance is unbearable. Nobody has such an incoherent ideology, so perfectly tailored for what he wants to accomplish politically, with such fake rationalizations. The scary thing: he believes his own nonsense. richardhanania.com/p/why-jd-vance…

@FuckedUpYogis Banger.

Her husband gonna come hard for splitting wardrobes evenly in that divorce.

@PlisskenPatriot Nah, we all belong to each other.

“Past a certain age, a man who still has empathy for the homeless can be a bad thing.”

@RichardBSpencer Unmute me I have something to say

@AlfredAlfer77 No you're hotter.

I always thought the look that I had when I played Max Keiser from The Keiser Report Crypto Hour (2023) was kinda Elaine-Core.