
Just read Hemenway Falk & Tsoukalas, 2026, they mathematically prove UBI doesn’t solve this. It cushions it.
The core problem is that each company captures the full savings from automating but bears only 1/N of the demand it destroys. It’s a dominant strategy to automate even when all competitors know collective restraint would raise profits.
UBI adds a constant to demand. It changes no company’s marginal decision. Worse — by raising baseline profits, it attracts new entrants, fragments the market, and widens the wedge.
The only instrument that corrects the externality according to the math is a per-task automation tax. Everything else is a transfer, not a fix. - arxiv.org/html/2603.2061…
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