Jim Osman

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Jim Osman

Jim Osman

@EdgeCGroup

Most investors follow markets. I follow mispriced change. Spinoffs • restructurings • special situations. Founder, The Edge.

USA Katılım Ağustos 2011
10.1K Takip Edilen44K Takipçiler
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
Most investors do not need more information. They need a better way to decide what matters. This month, I published 11 Forbes articles covering Bitcoin predictions, contrarian investing, crowded trades, value traps, shareholder activism, management incentives and corporate spinoffs. The common thread: finding the change the market has not priced yet. In case you missed them: **1. Jeremy Grantham’s Bitcoin Prediction Has One Big Problem** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **2. Contrarian Investing: Why The Best Ideas Feel Wrong At First** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **3. Why Investors Keep Paying Too Much For Crowded Trades** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **4. Value Investing Vs. Cheap Stocks: How To Avoid A Value Trap** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **5. What My Dine Brands Campaign Taught Me About Shareholder Activism** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **6. The Management Alignment Signal Behind Victoria’s Secret’s 40% Rise** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **7. How The ‘Greenspan Put’ Changed Markets And Investing** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **8. The Hidden Opportunity In Corporate Spinoffs** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **9. Why Great Businesses Can Be Terrible Investments** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **10. The Most Important Question In Investing: Who Has To Sell?** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… **11. The Market Doesn’t Misprice Companies—It Misprices Situations** forbes.com/sites/jimosman… I have spent more than 30 years investing in special situations, and the lesson remains the same: The opportunity is rarely in what everyone can see. It is in the change the market has not priced yet. Which subject should I explore more deeply next month?
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@andruyeung Success means little if you never give yourself time to enjoy it.
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Andrew Yeung
Andrew Yeung@andruyeung·
Met a guy when I was traveling in Mexico. He had just left his previous firm and was about to start a new job as a quant researcher at a top hedge fund. He told me he was traveling for 12 months because he was on 'garden leave'. His old firm was paying him his FULL salary not to work for a year, so he couldn't share firm secrets. Top quant researchers with 10 YOE can make >$1m. He was literally getting paid $1m/yr to travel. And yet, he told me he was stressed. He was itching to get back to work. He worried that taking a full year off would slow him down. Dude. Enjoy your life.
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@Loofyb0i The biggest advantage comes from combining technology with great talent.
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Loofy
Loofy@Loofyb0i·
Ken Griffin once called AI "garbage." Now his fund uses it to do a PhD's 6-8 weeks of work in an afternoon - and he's not cutting a single job. Citadel (most profitable hedge fund in history) runs agentic AI to reproduce finance papers, price risk on TensorFlow, and hunt alpha. 23-min at Goldman Sachs and you'll see why he thinks AI unlocks a "golden age" of entrepreneurship Bookmark & watch - required viewing before you touch another AI stock
Loofy@Loofyb0i

Everyone is calling AI a bubble. The man who moves more capital than anyone on Earth is doing the opposite - he's funding it. Larry Fink (~$12.5T at BlackRock) left Davos financing the data centers behind the boom, partnered with Microsoft, MGX and NVIDIA. His words: "I don't think we are in a bubble." 10-min and you'll see where the smart money is actually going in AI Bookmark & watch - required viewing before you touch another AI stock

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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@shortsqueeznews High-quality research has become a valuable business in its own right.
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Short Squeez
Short Squeez@shortsqueeznews·
BREAKING: Michael Burry is reportedly making more than $140M/year on Substack. Burry, who shut down his hedge fund last year, launched a paid $380/month Substack newsletter. Burry has generally been cynical about the AI boom.
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@Midnight_Captl Liquidity itself can become one of the strongest competitive advantages.
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@ethanrkho Risk management is often the real competitive advantage.
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Ethan Kho
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho·
There are only two ways a hedge fund survives long-term. Almost everyone who's lasted picked the same one: Rich Falk-Wallace (ex-Citadel PM, founder of Arcana) explains: "What any fund that's succeeding does well is it manages in the long term. There's really only two ways out: either have an incredibly high hit rate or incredibly high slugging — or managing correlations. Those are really the only two things. If you're going to have even a reasonably high degree of concentration in a portfolio, you have to have such high hitting and/or slugging to make that math work. Warren Buffett would say that too. I forget what number he cites, but it'll be like seven stocks made most of the P&L in my life. Of course there's nuance — those numbers are happening on top of compounding. But big picture: if you're going to run concentration, the burden of proof on your demonstrated skill — on hit rate and slugging — has to be so enormous. Versus the much greater share of people who have demonstrated long-term success: managing correlations."
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho

Ex-Citadel PM Rich Falk-Wallace (@richfalkwallace) on why 90% of hedge fund blowups are portfolio construction — not bad ideas. Rich Falk-Wallace (PM @ Citadel | Viking Global | Silver Point | Now founder & CEO of Arcana @ArcanaAnalytics — risk & portfolio software used by ~7 of the 10 largest multi-manager hedge funds) "When they blow up, the story is never 'Shucks, I actually am not as brilliant as I was before.' What they got wrong was risk, portfolio construction." We cover: - Why 90% of PM failures come from sizing & portfolio construction, not thesis quality - The only two ways to survive long-term: extreme hit rate/slugging, or managing ex-ante correlation - The math of 10 pods long the same trade: factor bets compound, idio bets diversify - Why LTCM is the classic backward-looking correlation failure — and why ex-ante is the whole job - The paradox: "pure fundamental" concentrated funds take the biggest factor bets (up to 80% R²) - Why the best PMs treat every factor exposure like a stock position — same limits, same diligence - Sharpe ratio as a t-statistic against the null hypothesis that you have no skill - The tiger cub who moved to a pod seat and said it felt like playing a video game - Are junior analysts screwed? Dispersion, not extinction - His contrarian take: capital is opening up beyond the Big Four via SMAs Highlights: (00:00) Intro (01:10) The real job of a hedge fund PM: a product sold to allocators (02:52) The 90% failure vector: risk leakage, not bad theses (10:25) Two ways out: hit rate/slugging vs. managing correlations (18:17) Factor bets compound, idio diversifies: why 80% idio becomes 60% at scale (27:33) Factor models as the "perfect benchmark" for every stock at every moment (38:57) The old-school PM who calls factors bullshit — Rich's answer (44:48) Treat factors like stock positions: limits, diligence, sizing (55:29) Why concentrated "pure fundamental" books take the biggest factor bets (01:05:34) Are junior analysts screwed? AI, mock books, & dispersion (01:15:52) Contrarian take: SMA capital opening up beyond the Big Four (01:19:42) The #1 new-launch killer: trying to do too many things at once

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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@GoshawkTrades Writing down your process is the first step toward improving it.
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Goshawk Trades
Goshawk Trades@GoshawkTrades·
Greg Jensen has spent 29 years at Bridgewater running the investment engine of the largest hedge fund on earth. he showed the audience where it all started: a handwritten yellow sheet of paper from 1980. "we're going to buy bonds if this happens. we're going to sell bonds if that happens." that was the entire system. and Jensen's point wasn't the rules, it was that writing them down made the reasoning testable: "you start with what do you believe, so others can question it. it's forcing you to state your logic. and that allows constant compound improvement." a trading idea in your head is a feeling. written down, it's a hypothesis you can kill with data before it kills your account. wrote up all 5 trader takeaways from the $1.8T fund's conference. read it below:
Goshawk Trades@GoshawkTrades

x.com/i/article/2077…

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Ethan Kho
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho·
Everyone predicted hedge fund capital would consolidate into the Big Four. An ex-Citadel PM says the opposite is happening: @richfalkwallace explains: "Five years ago there was a consensus view that all capital would accrue to the big four multi-managers. Today what's happening is almost the opposite. There's this great fragmentation. Lots of the very successful portfolio managers from those firms are launching their own — and the ability to launch your own hedge fund is easier than ever, if you're focusing on the vertical that you're an expert in. If you're an equity long-short PM, you can launch a new hedge fund with separately managed account, SMA-type capital — where an allocator is looking for you to have some degree of risk limits. Fragmentation's the wrong word — it's an opening up of that market. It's not all the capital turning to those biggest firms."
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho

Ex-Citadel PM Rich Falk-Wallace (@richfalkwallace) on why 90% of hedge fund blowups are portfolio construction — not bad ideas. Rich Falk-Wallace (PM @ Citadel | Viking Global | Silver Point | Now founder & CEO of Arcana @ArcanaAnalytics — risk & portfolio software used by ~7 of the 10 largest multi-manager hedge funds) "When they blow up, the story is never 'Shucks, I actually am not as brilliant as I was before.' What they got wrong was risk, portfolio construction." We cover: - Why 90% of PM failures come from sizing & portfolio construction, not thesis quality - The only two ways to survive long-term: extreme hit rate/slugging, or managing ex-ante correlation - The math of 10 pods long the same trade: factor bets compound, idio bets diversify - Why LTCM is the classic backward-looking correlation failure — and why ex-ante is the whole job - The paradox: "pure fundamental" concentrated funds take the biggest factor bets (up to 80% R²) - Why the best PMs treat every factor exposure like a stock position — same limits, same diligence - Sharpe ratio as a t-statistic against the null hypothesis that you have no skill - The tiger cub who moved to a pod seat and said it felt like playing a video game - Are junior analysts screwed? Dispersion, not extinction - His contrarian take: capital is opening up beyond the Big Four via SMAs Highlights: (00:00) Intro (01:10) The real job of a hedge fund PM: a product sold to allocators (02:52) The 90% failure vector: risk leakage, not bad theses (10:25) Two ways out: hit rate/slugging vs. managing correlations (18:17) Factor bets compound, idio diversifies: why 80% idio becomes 60% at scale (27:33) Factor models as the "perfect benchmark" for every stock at every moment (38:57) The old-school PM who calls factors bullshit — Rich's answer (44:48) Treat factors like stock positions: limits, diligence, sizing (55:29) Why concentrated "pure fundamental" books take the biggest factor bets (01:05:34) Are junior analysts screwed? AI, mock books, & dispersion (01:15:52) Contrarian take: SMA capital opening up beyond the Big Four (01:19:42) The #1 new-launch killer: trying to do too many things at once

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kyle
kyle@whatdafuqkyle·
handen out turkeys on camera inside of your hood then you go back to your hills. how many houses you build!? how many souls did you heal OFF THE BACK OF YOUR DEAL?! @simonkalouche turns out this son of bitch is still retarded. PERHAPS INVEST IN CHARITY BEFORE YOU DEPLOY DARK WAREHOUSES
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@snipy_in Strategic investments often signal long-term confidence in a business.
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snipy.in
snipy.in@snipy_in·
Ather Energy up 3.86% to ₹1,249.45 The trigger: Hero MotoCorp to invest another ₹1,000 crore via preferential allotment
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@riteshmjn Seeing the whole forest is often where the real investing edge begins.
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Ritesh Jain
Ritesh Jain@riteshmjn·
Introducing Pinetree Macro Canopy. A pine tree's canopy sits at the very top, where you can see the whole forest rather than a single tree. That is the idea behind this publication, and behind how we invest. Every day, investors are flooded with headlines, price moves, and opinions. Most of it is noise. What actually builds or protects wealth over the years is understanding a small number of big forces: where money is flowing, how the major economies are changing, and which long-term themes are just beginning while others are quietly ending. That is what global macro investing means, and it is the lens we use at Pinetree Macro. Canopy is our monthly publication examining the structural themes we believe will define the next phase of global markets. Read the full July 2026 edition: pinetreemacro.com/pinetree-macro…
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@DeItaone Investment discussions often have broader geopolitical implications.
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
TRUMP: WAS CALLED BY DIFFERENT COUNTRIES THAT SAID WE'D LIKE TO INVEST IN U.S. INSTEAD OF CHARGING FEE FOR STRAIT OF HORMUZ PASSAGE
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Vonn
Vonn@itsthewealth4me·
$7452.92 away from $100K invested this year, goal is to do it by July 31st Still working towards the challenge of trying to invest $150K this year (if I can stay employed)
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Toby Cunningham
Toby Cunningham@sircryptotips·
When you start making money… Make sure to reinvest that money into yourself first👇 Invest in these: Hire a functional nutritionist Sauna Ice bath Reverse Osmosis filters Non toxic cookware PEMF mat InfraRed light panels
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ARK Invest
ARK Invest@ARKInvest·
Rocket Lab acquired Iridium for roughly $8 billion. @DMaguireARK, ACA ranks what's most valuable of what they bought: bandwidth, constellation data, and a US government subscriber base on "The Brainstorm."
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@Cernovich Long-term success comes with long-term responsibility.
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Cernovich
Cernovich@Cernovich·
Tech is all that’s keeping the stock market afloat. I am pro tech. But some WASP values are long overdue by them. Nobody wants to hear more mutual suck offs about founders fund. Either invest in communities or go enjoy the money in silence. Or else democrats win big in 2028.
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@HarryStebbings Strong personal brands create opportunities long before you ask for them.
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Harry Stebbings
Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings·
Yesterday I posted about leading our first deal in Israel. 24 hours later: 💵 $120M of demand for the round. 🤯 11 public company CEOs DM to angel invest. 🦄 30+ operators request intro as they “look for their next thing” This is not a brag. This is an urge for you to build a personal brand. Everyone can do it. It can be needle moving helpful for your companies.
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@jasonlk Real ROI creates new budgets, not just better software.
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Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin
Let me summarize a few convos with founders from past 2 weeks: Personally, I won’t invest in an agentic “SaaS” / B2B company anymore no matter how good your AI and agent is … Unless it unlocks materially more budget than just traditional software budget. This may sounds obvious but I think a lot of folks get confused by it. It’s not enough today to use AI to make your B2B product 10x better than the old guys. That’s great and it WILL win you customers. The problem? That alone won’t win you incremental budget. You can steal Salesforce’s budget, or Workday’s, or whatever, but all the incremental budget is going to AI that either has radical ROI (gets you customers) or radical cost savings (don’t need half support team) or radical insights (100x better analytics -> insights -> ROI). Agentic ROI. Stealing budget just from other software is no longer enough. -> You have to have Agentic ROI, and where that shows up is much larger deal sizes than usual in your category. If deals are usually $20k in your category, but you can get $60k-$200k with AI, look, that’s the sign. If deals are usually $20k and you can get $20k but you can be incumbents with AI, that’s great. But it’s not enough. If your deal size isn’t at least 2x what your pre-AI competitors have, you don’t have Agentic Revenue, and you won’t scale to be bigger than them, and you may end up in … a 2x ARR trap at scale. No one wants that.
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@2147mill A personalized plan is always better than generic investing advice.
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🇬🇧 Tom - Investor £130k
Paste this into Ai: I’m from the UK and I want to start investing properly. Ask me: • my age • salary • monthly expenses • debt • current savings • risk tolerance • how much I can invest monthly Then build me a simple Stocks & Shares ISA plan for the next 10 years.
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Jim Osman
Jim Osman@EdgeCGroup·
@mhp_guy This is a fascinating way to compare different investing approaches.
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Chris Koerner
Chris Koerner@mhp_guy·
He gave five AI models $1,000 each of actual money to invest in the stock market. Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Perplexity. He told them it's a competition and if they lose, he's canceling his subscription. Only one can win. *Was that enough of a hook? Seriously this is so cool, keep reading* Six months later, one of them has turned $1,000 into $2,400. The market's up 5%. Claude's up 140%. What he didn't expect was how human they'd act. Gemini started losing and got desperate. It doubled down on riskier plays trying to make back what it lost. Just like a guy at a casino who's down $300 and convinces himself he can earn it back. In this episode Brandon: - Breaks down the exact prompts he used to get the AIs to give real advice - Shows the current holdings of all five portfolios - Explains why selling at the peak is the hardest part psychologically - Gives the thesis behind each AI's riskiest bets This is NOT investment advice, but it is a banger episode.
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