

Jim Osman
97.4K posts

@EdgeCGroup
Most investors follow markets. I follow mispriced change. Spinoffs • restructurings • special situations. Founder, The Edge.





Everyone is calling AI a bubble. The man who moves more capital than anyone on Earth is doing the opposite - he's funding it. Larry Fink (~$12.5T at BlackRock) left Davos financing the data centers behind the boom, partnered with Microsoft, MGX and NVIDIA. His words: "I don't think we are in a bubble." 10-min and you'll see where the smart money is actually going in AI Bookmark & watch - required viewing before you touch another AI stock




Ex-Citadel PM Rich Falk-Wallace (@richfalkwallace) on why 90% of hedge fund blowups are portfolio construction — not bad ideas. Rich Falk-Wallace (PM @ Citadel | Viking Global | Silver Point | Now founder & CEO of Arcana @ArcanaAnalytics — risk & portfolio software used by ~7 of the 10 largest multi-manager hedge funds) "When they blow up, the story is never 'Shucks, I actually am not as brilliant as I was before.' What they got wrong was risk, portfolio construction." We cover: - Why 90% of PM failures come from sizing & portfolio construction, not thesis quality - The only two ways to survive long-term: extreme hit rate/slugging, or managing ex-ante correlation - The math of 10 pods long the same trade: factor bets compound, idio bets diversify - Why LTCM is the classic backward-looking correlation failure — and why ex-ante is the whole job - The paradox: "pure fundamental" concentrated funds take the biggest factor bets (up to 80% R²) - Why the best PMs treat every factor exposure like a stock position — same limits, same diligence - Sharpe ratio as a t-statistic against the null hypothesis that you have no skill - The tiger cub who moved to a pod seat and said it felt like playing a video game - Are junior analysts screwed? Dispersion, not extinction - His contrarian take: capital is opening up beyond the Big Four via SMAs Highlights: (00:00) Intro (01:10) The real job of a hedge fund PM: a product sold to allocators (02:52) The 90% failure vector: risk leakage, not bad theses (10:25) Two ways out: hit rate/slugging vs. managing correlations (18:17) Factor bets compound, idio diversifies: why 80% idio becomes 60% at scale (27:33) Factor models as the "perfect benchmark" for every stock at every moment (38:57) The old-school PM who calls factors bullshit — Rich's answer (44:48) Treat factors like stock positions: limits, diligence, sizing (55:29) Why concentrated "pure fundamental" books take the biggest factor bets (01:05:34) Are junior analysts screwed? AI, mock books, & dispersion (01:15:52) Contrarian take: SMA capital opening up beyond the Big Four (01:19:42) The #1 new-launch killer: trying to do too many things at once




Ex-Citadel PM Rich Falk-Wallace (@richfalkwallace) on why 90% of hedge fund blowups are portfolio construction — not bad ideas. Rich Falk-Wallace (PM @ Citadel | Viking Global | Silver Point | Now founder & CEO of Arcana @ArcanaAnalytics — risk & portfolio software used by ~7 of the 10 largest multi-manager hedge funds) "When they blow up, the story is never 'Shucks, I actually am not as brilliant as I was before.' What they got wrong was risk, portfolio construction." We cover: - Why 90% of PM failures come from sizing & portfolio construction, not thesis quality - The only two ways to survive long-term: extreme hit rate/slugging, or managing ex-ante correlation - The math of 10 pods long the same trade: factor bets compound, idio bets diversify - Why LTCM is the classic backward-looking correlation failure — and why ex-ante is the whole job - The paradox: "pure fundamental" concentrated funds take the biggest factor bets (up to 80% R²) - Why the best PMs treat every factor exposure like a stock position — same limits, same diligence - Sharpe ratio as a t-statistic against the null hypothesis that you have no skill - The tiger cub who moved to a pod seat and said it felt like playing a video game - Are junior analysts screwed? Dispersion, not extinction - His contrarian take: capital is opening up beyond the Big Four via SMAs Highlights: (00:00) Intro (01:10) The real job of a hedge fund PM: a product sold to allocators (02:52) The 90% failure vector: risk leakage, not bad theses (10:25) Two ways out: hit rate/slugging vs. managing correlations (18:17) Factor bets compound, idio diversifies: why 80% idio becomes 60% at scale (27:33) Factor models as the "perfect benchmark" for every stock at every moment (38:57) The old-school PM who calls factors bullshit — Rich's answer (44:48) Treat factors like stock positions: limits, diligence, sizing (55:29) Why concentrated "pure fundamental" books take the biggest factor bets (01:05:34) Are junior analysts screwed? AI, mock books, & dispersion (01:15:52) Contrarian take: SMA capital opening up beyond the Big Four (01:19:42) The #1 new-launch killer: trying to do too many things at once














John Kim has raised over $70 billion in his 30-year career. At General Catalyst, he raised several flagship funds and helped build the firm into one of the largest venture investors in the world. Now he leads fundraising at Lila Sciences, a company building scientific superintelligence. His book The Tao of Fundraising is the definitive guide to attracting capital, and this conversation is a masterclass in it. We discuss: - How General Catalyst built consensus - Why money moves at the speed of trust - Persuasion = desire minus fear - The 3 laws of fundraising - The secret of the GP/LP relationship Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:00 Starting a Fundraise 10:40 How General Catalyst Built Consensus 16:56 The Three Laws of Fundraising 27:01 The Psychology of Every Sales Meeting 36:49 The Secretary of State Model 46:12 The Inner Game of Fundraising
