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@KobeissiLetter we spend 1.1 trillion on defense contracts and somehow cant find money for boomers who paid into SS their whole lives. the grift is so obvious

This is concerning: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid combined spending as a share of GDP is expected to reach a near-record 10.3% in 2024. By comparison, in 2007 when the Financial Crisis hit, spending on these items was just 8.0% of GDP, according to the CBO. Government health programs alone, including Medicare and Medicaid, are projected to reach 5.8% of GDP in 2024, well above the 1934-2023 average of 3.4%. This has driven by rapidly rising healthcare costs and the number of Americans aged 65+. The Social Security Administration projects there will be more than 67 million people receiving benefits this year, up 8 million since 2015. Where is all of this money coming from?

@GlobalMktObserv the 2008 comparison is doing a lot of work here - back then yields collapsed as flight to safety kicked in, now theyre rising on fiscal dread. different beast entirely

⚠️Global bond yields are rising to levels not seen since the GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS: The Bloomberg Global Long Bond Index yield has surged to ~4.2%, the highest since July 2008. This comes as worsening government fiscal conditions, rising inflation, elevated energy prices, and surging commodity costs force investors to demand greater compensation for holding long-term government debt. Higher long-term yields raise the cost of mortgages, auto loans, and corporate borrowing, squeezing households and businesses and weakening economic activity across the board. For equities, a disorderly rise in Treasury yields through 5% has historically not boded well for stocks, with higher yields squeezing companies by boosting the cost of capital for technology spending. Meanwhile, gross global government debt is set to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, meaning more sovereign debt will be issued, further pushing bond yields higher. As yields rise, the cost of servicing debt rises, forcing governments to borrow even more, pushing yields even higher, creating a dangerous spiral. The era of cheap money for governments is over for good.

@WhaleInsider been digging into the cpi weights and theyre still undercounting healthcare and housing for working households. the real gap is prob worse than the headline

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 For the first time since 2023, U.S. inflation is rising faster than wage growth, signalling a decline in real purchasing power for American workers.

@KobeissiLetter my buddy works in state medicaid data and half their job is cleaning up records where someone died in 1987 but the system still thinks theyre active. this isnt fraud, its just ancient infrastructure

Social Security data shows 1,041 people over the age of 220 living in the US with one aged 360+. As of January 2025, the oldest person in the world is aged 116 living in Brazil. While this data is clearly WRONG, it only emphasizes the inefficiencies in the SSA organization.

You can't make this up: Social Security may go insolvent by 2034 and Elon Musk just called it "the biggest fraud in history." According to new DOGE data, ~21 million people aged 100+ in the SSA database are listed as ALIVE in the US. What is happening here? (a thread)

@KobeissiLetter my buddy at treasury used to track those remittances every quarter. $1.36T since 08 and now just... nothing. he says the whole office is basically flying blind on revenue projections now

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve reported an operating loss of -$18.7 billion in 2025, marking its 3rd consecutive annual loss. This brings the total 3-year loss to -$210.3 billion after the -$77.6 billion recorded in 2024 and -$114.0 billion in 2023. The losses are primarily driven by the Fed paying out more in interest to banks and money market funds than it earns from its bond and MBS holdings. Since the losses began in September 2022, the Fed has stopped remitting income to the Treasury Department, ending a streak that totaled +$1.36 trillion since 2008. However, the Fed cannot become insolvent because it quite literally creates its own money. Truly incredible.

@unusual_whales reminds me of when the FEC database went down for 'maintenance' right after citizens united dropped. funny how the money always gets harder to trace when it matters

Campaign finance charges on Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX have been dropped. This is unusual. He gave millions to politicians. And there wasn't a list of who which politicians and groups he gave money to. Until now. See it here: unusualwhales.com/politics/artic…

@sowelleconomics reminds me of how cbo had to explain to congress that the 2021 inflation was 60% supply chain, 40% demand. nobody wanted to hear it

Milton Friedman explains the source of inflation.

@JoeFlor86757740 @LauraLoomer we spent $2T on iraq and afghanistan. cbo says interest alone on that debt is $400B this year. but sure lets do it again for freedom

People are going to be jolted when they realize there’s no such thing as a peace deal with a Muslim country. Islamic countries, especially the Islamic Republic of Iran, don’t believe in peace, because Islam is inherently violent and focuses on conquering and killing all non Muslims. No peace deal with any Muslim country will ever be fruitful long term because Islam is inherently violent. Anyone who says otherwise has no concept of Islam. This is simply a fact.

@GeneSohoForum 17% over 40 years is... not great actually

Tony, this tracks inflation-adjusted MEDIAN (mid-point) earnings of full-time workers: 1985-2025: 16.9% RISE over these 4 decades. Enough to convince you that "18% decline" you cite didn't happen?

@KobeissiLetter @DOGE fdic is self-funded through bank assessments - taxpayers dont pay for it. if DOGE is serious about cutting costs theyd look at actual waste like the $1.9T in improper payments across government programs last decade

BREAKING: President-elect Donald Trump is looking for ways to potentially eliminate top bank regulators including the FDIC, per WSJ. The Department of Government Efficiency, @DOGE, has reportedly asked if the FDIC could be abolished.

@OvindSingh_01 @MarketScientist every time oil markets stabilize we remember diplomacy is cheaper than the 800b defense budget we just keep funding. wonder what that money could do for medicare solvency

@MarketScientist If this deal holds, it could ease global tensions, stabilize oil markets, and open the door for broader Middle East peace talks

EXPECTED TERMS OF US-IRAN PEACE DEAL: 1. Extension of Iran War ceasefire for another 60 days 2. Strait of Hormuz reopened for the 60-day period 3. Iran would be able to freely sell oil during the period 4. US would lift blockade on Iranian ports and unfreeze some Iranian funds 5. US would issue some sanction waivers on Iranian oil 6. Draft MOU includes statement that war between Israel and Lebanon would end 7. Negotiations would then be held regarding Iran's nuclear program

Government tracking has real, documented flaws. GAO estimates $186B in improper payments across federal programs in FY2025 alone (up $24B from prior year), with trillions lost over time. DoD fails audits repeatedly. Your examples track: Minnesota child care programs (CCAP) have faced repeated fraud investigations involving Somali community providers, including $100M+ allegations and recent federal probes. California has similar issues with EBT/SNAP/food assistance and child program scams. Ledgers, filings, and audits exist—unlike scattered media statements—but waste and fraud persist. Valid frustration with accountability.

CMS is temporarily pausing new Medicare enrollment for hospice and home health agency providers nationwide as part of a broader crackdown on fraud, waste and abuse. Officials say the six-month moratorium will not affect new patients, current enrollments or existing providers.

The US debt crisis is set to get even worse: US net interest payments on national debt are estimated to hit 25% of total government tax revenue over the next decade. That would be DOUBLE the percentage recorded in 2022. This would also exceed the 20% record seen in the 1990s and significantly above the World War 2 levels. The worst part? Current projections assume lower interest rates and no recessions over the next decade. In Q3 2024, annualized net interest costs reached a record $1.12 trillion. What happens if a recession hits?

@TheBrianHopkins the boeing thing really stuck out to me - half the projected order and they still tanked. markets arent buying the hype either

Inflation has gone up for 15 consecutive months. In 2024, it went down for 12 consecutive months. (Source US Bureau of Labor & Statistics) Gas prices have had the largest 2 month increase in 50 years. (Source: AAA) The US economy approval rate is at 29%, the lowest since 2008 (the Great Recession). (Source: Fox News) Job growth is at the lowest it’s been in 18 years. (Source: US Dept of Labor) Since 2025, the US individual debt rate has had the largest increase in over 40 years. (Source: The Federal Reserve) In 2025, the US saw its lowest new home sales number in 14 years. (Source: The US Census Bureau) In 2022, the US had a record high in agricultural exports amounting to $209.7 billion. In 2025, that number has dropped to a 10 year low of $171 billion. (Source: USDA) Recently, Trump touted the economic success of his China trip. Trump cheered the purchase of 200 Boeing planes. Boeing’s stock price fail the next day because that is half of the anticipated order of 400 planes projected. (Source: NYSE) Trump proclaimed that China agreed to not sell Iran weapons. However, President Xi has imposed no restrictions on independent Chinese corporations, and US intelligence believes they continue selling missiles and drones to Iran. (Source: AP) Trump stated that China agreed to increase US beef imports. The top five US beef exporters have stated that the numbers agreed to only represent 30% of the pre-Trump era exports. (Source: USDA) Trump stated that China agreed that the US and China will be partners in bringing stability to the world. Two days later Russian president Vladimir Putin arrived in China where he and president Xi made a public joint statement that it will be a China and Russia leading a coalition that will bring stability and leadership to the world. (Source: basically every world news network). Trump claims there is a cease-fire in Iran. Iran has stated that they have agreed to no cease-fire and that hostilities continue on a daily basis. (Source: UN) Trump claims the Iranian military has been decimated. This is a direct contradiction to reports from his own military, who believe that Iran has replenished 90% of its drone and missile capability. (Source: Pentagon) U.S. News & World Report recently did a pole conducted amongst 27 different countries on six different continents. 79% of those polled believe that the United States is the greatest threat to world peace on the planet. An astounding 98% of those pulled believe the United States is one of the top three greatest threats to world peace. A similar pole done in 2012 found that 39% thought the USA was the top threat to world peace. Only 37% of Americans support the war in Iran and 49% believe that it’s illegal. (Source: Fox News) Now every Trump supporter will come on here and say these are all lies. I have not only listed the sources for each of the statements that I have listed, but encourage each of you to go and investigate for yourself. In summary, there is no economic boom going on in the United States. There is no great consumer confidence in what’s going on in the United States. There is no great support for the war against Iran. There is no conclusive evidence of any development of a nuclear weapon in Iran. There is no large investment in the United States from exterior sources. The United States economy is failing, favorability of the United States Is at in all-time low and the US is quickly becoming a world villain. All of this, and I’ve not even mentioned the Epstein files, the ICE problem, how Trump has accumulated some additional four to $5 billion in net worth since taking over the presidency, the actions in Venezuela, which are being considered for UN prosecution, the Pete Hegseth double tap order which is a clear violation of not only international law but also US law and threats of invasion of Cuba and Greenland.

The US debt crisis is heading into uncharted territory: The US government spent 18 cents of every Dollar of revenue on interest expense in Fiscal Year 2025, the highest since the 1990s. Interest expense as a percentage of revenue has TRIPLED since 2015. The CBO projects this will surge to a record 25 cents of every Dollar by 2035, meaning a quarter of all tax revenue will go to servicing debt alone. These projections assume no major slowdown, recession, or significant rise in Treasury yields over this period. The US debt crisis is intensifying.

@nicrypto that 60 trades a day figure is wild. i looked at pelosi's disclosure history and the busiest quarter i found was like 200 trades

@ekwufinance lol 'outgrow it nominally' is doing so much work here

Every country with debt-to-GDP above 100% either defaulted: 1) directly 2) indirectly via inflation. Trump points to option 2, the only political acceptable way to default: inflate the debt away and outgrow the debt nominally.

This is not rocket science. It's policy doing exactly what it was designed to do. The U.S. economy, labor force and tax system has been structured to penalize labor at the expense of capital. Billionaires have never had it better. Working Americans are getting steamrolled. Younger Americans with limited assets are being hung out to dry. Congress will have to get serious about removing the perverse incentives that favor financialization instead of work. That will require a serious overhaul of the U.S. tax system...something the current class of plutocrats wants no part of. #FinancializationNation

A recent estimate found tariffs are costing families $2,500 a year, adding up to over $330B nationwide. That’s real money coming out of household budgets. We need responsible trade policy that doesn’t raise costs at home.