BigAgraKillture

I agree it’s an absolute shit show, closing refineries, limited stock piles, an island nation at the end of the supply chain unprepared for a supply choke. However, the idea we have these huge reserves which are commercially viable to extract and refine is untrue in regard to crude oil.

Australia sits on some of the largest energy reserves in the world and somehow we’ve got less than 6 weeks of fuel left. We closed 6 of our 8 refineries, we offshored our emergency reserves and we import 90% of our fuel. Australia’s problem is bigger than just a Middle East war. Absolute clown show.

Australia Apparently 14 days of fuel left? You fair dinkum kidding me ?

BREAKING: South Korea just announced mandatory fuel rationing. Government vehicles at public institutions barred from operating one day each week on a five-day licence plate rotation. The world’s 10th largest economy, a G20 member, a semiconductor superpower, home to Samsung and SK Hynix, the country that fabricates a quarter of the world’s memory chips, is rationing fuel like Sri Lanka. South Korea imports 73 to 87 percent of its oil from the Middle East. Every barrel transits the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is closed and mined. There is no alternative route for Korean crude imports at scale. The Kospi crashed 4.9 percent on Monday before Trump’s “productive conversations” post briefly eased the panic. The won is weakening. Inflation is accelerating. And now the Energy Minister is telling government workers which days they cannot drive. Count the dominoes. Sri Lanka rationed first: Wednesdays off, QR codes at pumps, LPG vanished from southern shelves. Bangladesh followed with public holidays to conserve fuel. Pakistan imposed restrictions. India tightened allocations. Slovenia became the first EU country with QR codes and odd-even plates. Now South Korea. The rationing is no longer a developing-world phenomenon. It is migrating up the GDP ladder. The 10th largest economy. The 12th largest military budget. A US treaty ally hosting 28,500 American troops. Rationing. Those 28,500 troops run on fuel. USFK operates bases across the peninsula that require continuous diesel, aviation fuel, and generator capacity. Joint exercises with the ROK military consume thousands of tonnes of fuel annually. Every barrel of that fuel traces back to the same Middle Eastern supply chain that South Korea’s Energy Minister just acknowledged cannot sustain civilian demand. If civilian vehicles are being restricted, military logistics are under pressure. If military logistics are under pressure, deterrence against North Korea erodes. If deterrence erodes, Pyongyang and Beijing calculate. The Strait of Hormuz is 7,500 kilometres from the Korean DMZ. The fuel that deters Kim Jong Un transits a chokepoint held closed by Iran’s 140 remaining missile launchers. Kim Jong Un is watching. Every day that South Korea rations fuel is a day that North Korea’s calculus shifts. Not toward war, not yet, but toward the conclusion that the American alliance system has a fuel dependency that a single regional conflict can exploit. The US cannot simultaneously secure the Strait of Hormuz with carrier groups, deploy 82nd Airborne paratroopers to the Iran theater, accelerate the 11th MEU from San Diego, AND maintain full deterrence posture on the Korean Peninsula. Something gives. The fuel rationing in Seoul is the first visible signal of what is giving. Taiwan is watching too. TSMC’s fabrication plants in Hsinchu are counting LNG reserves in single-digit days. Taiwan imports virtually all of its energy. If South Korea, with its larger strategic reserves and diversified economy, is already rationing, Taiwan’s timeline is shorter. The chips that power every Nvidia GPU, every Apple processor, every AI training run on Earth depend on a gas supply that depends on a strait that depends on a 5-day pause that depends on a Truth Social post that Iran says corresponds to nothing. Sri Lanka. Bangladesh. Pakistan. India. Slovenia. South Korea. Six countries rationing. Three continents. One strait. The molecules do not check GDP rankings. The molecules check whether the chokepoint is open. It is not. open.substack.com/pub/xerion/p/a…

I think the issue being raised here is with global supplies being constrained, and with asian refiners getting 80-90% of their supply through gulf states, an choke on supply from America limits any alternate source of supply for Australia if Asian supplies run low and are stockpiled for national security.

@Rizzabeast We don’t get much of it from the US anyway. 90% is from Asia and South East Asia.

🚨 Australia’s fuel drama just got worse. Texas’ biggest refinery — Valero Port Arthur — exploded yesterday. Massive fire, black smoke choking the sky. No reports of injuries and I hope it stays that way. The hard working men and woman have all my respect. We’re already in deep trouble: Asia has cut exports hard because of the Middle East chaos. Some ships to Australia cancelled. Stations running dry in places. Prices hitting $3/L in spots. Panic buying kicking off. Now we’re scrambling for record emergency shipments from the US Gulf Coast — and this giant refinery is right in the heart of it. One big outage there could slam the door on our lifeline. Australia imports 90% of its fuel. Stockpiles are razor-thin. We’re one more shock away from life threatening shortages. Enough of the vulnerability. Time to secure our own future. #FuelCrisisAU

Strange how these types of incidents occurring all over the world right now. Especially with the current energy/resources crisis. - Russian oil field hit by Ukraine - Electrical failure at Australian ammonia plant (closure for 2 months) - Santos LNG plant temporarily shut in Australia - Russian Primorsk oil port hombed by Ukraine

LOL. Trump is now PRETENDING to negotiate with Iran so he can say they've agreed to almost everything, in order to push oil prices lower for a few more days. His new "5-day" delay lines up perfectly with a planned U.S. Marines landing assault after the close of markets on Friday, at which time Trump will claim Iran backed out of the (imaginary) negotiations, and thus we had to land Marines to take the Straight by force. That's what's shaping up here. Don't be fooled by Trump's false claims of negotiations. It's all theater for gullible Fox News idiots.

🚨 UKRAINE JUST HIT RUSSIA’S LARGEST OIL PORT: – Primorsk. Russia’s biggest oil export terminal on the Baltic – Handles 1.5 million barrels per day, 60 million tons per year – It’s on fire, fuel reservoirs burning, workers evacuated, operations suspended – The nearby Ust-Luga port also suspended operations – Russia’s TWO largest petroleum export outlets offline at the same time – Ukraine confirmed the strike, 249 drones launched – Both the tank farm and oil loading infrastructure were hit – Primorsk is where Russia’s shadow fleet loads up to dodge sanctions – It’s how Russian oil money keeps flowing despite every Western sanction Now think about the timing… – The Strait of Hormuz is closed. 20% of global oil choked off because of the Iran war – Now Russia’s biggest Baltic export hub is also offline – The Novorossiysk Black Sea port was hit by drones earlier this month too – Global oil supply is being squeezed from two directions at the same time. The Middle East AND Russia. Simultaneously I’ll share more updates shortly, turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything important.

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

No farmers, no food No fuel, no food See how simple that is to explain

True, we can save fuel at the pump that can be utilised for agricultural machinery. But you hit the nail on the head. The problem is we don’t produce the required quantity of fertilisers nor have the capacity to service our needs. And the Gulf States are the start of the supply chain

@bigbconx @ShangguanJiewen If we could drastically reduce the oil burned in cars there would be more left for fertilizers.

🇨🇳BYD's super fast charging stations. Fully charged within 9 minutes, with a range of 600KM. There is no oil crisis in China.😊

This definatively marks the decline of the US empire and the beginning of a new world order. Donald Trump has achieved the Petro-Yuan. Nations paying for oil in Yuan are granted safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. India just did so. 👇

Hoping this a final show of strength from both sides, with the knowledge a ceasefire is near. This way both sides can claim they did not backdown.

BREAKING: More details emerge on a potential peace deal between the US and Iran, per Axios. Details include: 1. US officials say there could be "room to negotiate" over returning frozen assets to Iran 2. "They call it reparations. Maybe we call it return of frozen money," the official said 3. US says any deal to end the war would need to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and also establish a long-term agreement on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles and support for proxies in the region 4. Iranian demands include a ceasefire, guarantees that the war will not resume in the future, and compensation We expect an eventful week ahead.

IF true, Japan will need to sell more US equities, and especially treasuries, in order to afford this Trump blunder. #IranWar But Japan won’t send warships to the state of Hormuz because they can make these “tariff” deals directly with Iran. So how soon before Trump puts what’s left of our navy in harms way in the open water to seize oil tankers that have paid for petrol outside the USD?

Did you know that Australia is sitting on 43 years of fuel security in those orange basins on the map? 17.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil confirmed in the 2013 EIA report (US Energy Information Administration). We're importing 90% of our fuel while this goldmine sits locked away thanks to decades of political betrayal by impotent Liberal and Labor governments. Mining our own fuel will deliver similar or slightly cheaper(!) pump prices than what we're used to throughout 2025 It would take 8–15+ years but hey, that's exactly why we should've started yesterday. Will the current fuel crisis finally wake us up to ditch all the green virtue signaling, if only for our own survival? As a huge Tesla fan (and ex-employee) who loves the idea of electrifying everything, I say we need to: 🇦🇺⛽️ DRILL BABY DRILL ⛽️🇦🇺

In 2013, a retired Air Vice-Marshal named John Blackburn wrote a report for the NRMA warning that Australia had adopted a “she’ll be right” approach to fuel security. He warned that a conflict in the Middle East would disrupt supply chains and leave Australia exposed within weeks. He warned that without adequate liquid fuel, food production and distribution would be severely curtailed, most businesses could not operate, and our Defence Forces could not function He warned that Australia was the only IEA member noncompliant on the 90 day reserve requirement, and that actual usable supply was closer to 23 days. He warned, specifically, that Singapore refineries sourcing crude from the Middle East were a critical vulnerability in Australia’s supply chain. That was 2013. 12 years ago. This week, an entire town in Victoria ran out of fuel. Farmers have idle tractors mid planting. NSW declared an energy supply emergency. The government is now scrambling to build a fuel taskforce that Blackburn said we needed over a decade ago. “You can have the best military in the world,” he said, “but it’s futile if you can’t fuel it.” Nobody listened.

🔥 BREAKING 🔥 China has suspended fertiliser exports while farmers in the United States & Australia face shortages. The Chinese government has instructed exporters to halt all overseas shipments of fertiliser blends. Australia imports the majority of its fertiliser- roughly 70-75% of ammonium phosphate & nearly all of its urea primarily from the Middle East, China & Southeast Asia. This is extremely serious.

Petrol price increases by country (%),(Feb 23 - Mar 16) 1．🇱🇦 Laos - 32.99% 2．🇦🇺 Australia - 32.43% 3．🇻🇳 Vietnam - 32.00% 4．🇵🇰 Pakistan - 25.00% 5．🇺🇸 United States - 23.56% 6．🇰🇭 Cambodia - 19.37% 7．🇨🇦 Canada - 17.33% 8．🇩🇪 Germany - 12.64% 9．🇱🇧 Lebanon - 11.76% 10．🇨🇳 China - 10.37% 11．🇫🇷 France - 9.80% 12．🇹🇷 Türkiye - 7.69% 13．🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates - 7.14% 14．🇯🇵 Japan - 0.71% 15．🇮🇳 India - 0.00% Source: Global petrol prices