The Bitcoin Golfer

🧠 How Bitcoin Changed My Life (and Why I Started Playing Golf) In January 2024, I got into #crypto like everyone else - chasing pumps. Two months later, I discovered Michael Saylor… and everything changed. By March, I’d spent hundreds of hours studying #Bitcoin — and by April, I started DCA’ing every week. This is how it rewired my life 👇

@TheOtherParker_ @Strategy Great analysis. I have been guessing what MSTR would do too, and you speak my mind.

Ok, why is $STRC up 2.3% today while $BTC is down 1.4%? It entirely comes down to one metric and the implications for that metric, "Net-Bitcoin". @strategy updated their website with a huge new array of metrics, and very importantly, they've changed the mNAV metric (although the number itself is still at 1x mNAV). Before, they were using an EV/NAV calculation, which essentially just added the total value of the debt + common equity, and divided it by the market value of the bitcoin. The main problem here is that there was no direct way to account for the cash in the NAV. It was just showing the bitcoin. Now, they are using a Net-Bitcoin metric for the denominator. Net-Bitcoin takes the market value of the total bitcoin stack and subtracts the notional value of any debt that is currently out-of-the-money (currently all of it) and the prefs. For their new mNAV calculation, they divide the value of the common equity (MSTR) by the new Net-Bitcoin metric. The alpha is in the details here. The bitcoin is being valued at the MARKET VALUE, while the liabilities - debt and prefs - are being valued at the PAR VALUE. So what? This means Strategy can sell $1 of bitcoin and buy back $1 of debt or pref, but since most of the debt and prefs are trading at a discount to par, the buy back actually means that Net-Bitcoin goes UP, because you bought back $1 of par value debt or pref for $0.80 or whatever. They immediately book a 25% gain on that swap. Now, Net-Bitcoin-Per-Share just went up. Magic. Now why would they do this? It's pretty clear and they've been telling us quite vocally. "We are active managers now". "We are committed to having STRC trade between $99 and $101." They want to get the price of STRC back to $100, come hell or high water. STRC is their flagship product and they want it to be working as intended. This new valuation framework now effectively forces them to do buy backs if they are being rational actors. It's unclear if they will buy back some converts first or if they will go straight to buying back STRC, but I would be completely SHOCKED if buy backs didn't start next week or maybe even already happened. The big question is, where will they get the cash for the buybacks? Two places, selling BTC or selling MSTR. BTC is more liquid than MSTR and they've shown that they can sell a few hundred million in a week easily without impacting the price at all. Selling BTC also perfectly fits into the "magic" dynamic I highlighted earlier. MSTR though has some advantages too. For one, they don't get skewered with the narrative that they are dumping huge amounts of BTC at the bottom. The interesting thing about the new framework here is that they can raise $0.8 of MSTR ATM and retire $1 of liabilities (for example), meaning Net-Bitcoin-Per-Share goes up by 25% immediately. So, they could in theory sell MSTR below 1x mNAV and still have Net-Bitcoin-Per-Share growth. My guess is that they'll maybe do a little of both. The market is clearly sniffing this dynamic out though, which is why STRC is up so much today, while BTC is down. Interestingly, MSTR traded pretty well today relative to bitcoin as well, which leads me to believe that MSTR holders also like the dynamic. The bet for MSTR holders is that this will be short term pain (possibility of selling a little MSTR below 1x mNAV) for longer term gain as the price of STRC gets supported and the Digital Credit narrative gets back on track. One last thing to note here as well. As of June 30, there were 3.67M shares of STRC sold short. At current volume levels, that's over 3 days to cover. This is decently shorted and the short interest could have risen in the last 24 days. To get STRC back to par, Strategy doesn't need to buy back all of the traders wanting to sell below par, they just need to restore confidence in the market and the market will do the rest. I'm very interested to see what they announce Monday morning, and even more interested to see what they announce the following week, which happens to coincide with the monthly update where they would normally increase the dividend. To be completely clear, I have no inside knowledge here and could be completely wrong. This is just me doing the research like everyone else.

@BTCoptioneer Why not? It pays daily dividends, so people have more incentive to buy it at any price since they will get paid the next day they buy. This creates more incentive to buy.

There is no reason for $SATA to trade closer to par than $STRC. Either STRC has to rally soon or SATA has to sell off.

@ZynxBTC But STRC was relatively stable before they paid off the debt. I think credit investors have lost confidence in STRC, and MSTR needs to buy back STRC to regain confidence. The debt can't be paid off in the short term, maybe during the bull market via ATM.

The price action in $STRC is proving this post correct. The convertible debt on the balance sheet is causing it to trade with a high beta to Bitcoin price movements, giving it noticeably more volatility than $SATA. Increasing the USD reserve helps but it can only do so much. It addresses the credit fear without addressing the root cause. The convertible debt is the mechanism transmitting all that volatility into the product. Paying it off is of paramount importance.

@jerken1122 @FinFreedom414 They didn't time right when they sold their 32 btc tho, so the algo is not always right

@FinFreedom414 They run their algos which govern stock price vol / accretion etc and they deploy what makes sense. That’s actually what I like here - everything is time based also. Like a slow drum beat.

Strategy raised $263.5 million selling new $MSTR stock this week. Two weeks ago it was $466.7 million raised, also zero Bitcoin bought. Combined, that’s $730 million in new stock sold in 14 days, and none of it went into the Bitcoin treasury. The cash reserve keeps climbing instead, $2.55 billion two weeks ago, $3.0 billion last week, $3.225 billion now, with zero share buybacks either week. What do you think of the move?

@saylor @Strategy I think they will announce a strc buyback next week. The thing is, MSTR might have to sell BTC to buy back strc. If they sell btc at a higher price than they bought with that amount of share buyback, that's money lost on math, unless they can get away with a "tax loss harvesting"

Stretch your income. $STRC

@BriansBeacon @saylor @Strategy The thing is, MSTR might have to sell BTC to buy back strc. if they sell btc at a higher price than they bought with that amount of strc shares buyback, thats money lost on math, unless they can get away with a "tax loss harvesting" excuse.

@saylor @Strategy I think they’ll announce STRC buybacks next week. Failed to get to par on last day to qualify for dividends so they need to do more to defend it.

@hillery_dan I don't really see the downside for STRC buybacks except short-term pain for the common

Strc is the right idea but without a real buyback program, it will continue to be volatile. If the only way to limit price at 100 is via massive issuance, sustained periods below 99 will be expected until adoption continues. Entire Strc thesis is predicated on unlimited demand for Strc, which over a decade may be true, but will have interim volatility. Therefore I remain in favor of buybacks to reclaim par. I personally don’t think it’s a time based thing

@mikewmunz @GrainofSaltSF @CochranCrypto @Strategy I think buybacks can boost credit investors' confidence and send a signal to the shorts, which will boost STRC's price in the long term because the shorts will not be as profitable every time MSTR does a buyback.

The problem with buybacks of STRC is that is the vehicle for mass issuance for Bitcoin accumulation but only at $100 (for now). Buybacks temporarily may inflate price but it’s not the real market value if it’s being supported by Strategy. If no one is buying because it’s artificially inflated then the shorts can push it back down with low borrow cost. It could be beneficial to have sold STRC at $100 and bought back at $85, but that means the margin for it being accretive is the price at which they acquired the Bitcoin to sell for the buybacks in the first place. With Bitcoin down from acquisition cost then it’s a negative transaction to have sold STRC at $100 to buyback at $85, while Bitcoin is down more than this price difference (as is MSTR). It would ignite the attack vector to force Bitcoin sales which the market will attempt to exploit if it can. It would likely put a weird signal to the market for STRC as they see the company selling shares at $100 and buying them back at $85. There would be no reason to buy at $100. The only useful operation with buybacks is to force a short squeeze, however, it would take quite the firepower to do so and now Strategy is effectively a hedge fund. I don’t think they need to do buybacks of STRC to form the market they want. They simply need to be patient and allow the market to adjust as Bitcoin gains strength again

Poll Results for @Strategy selling Bitcoin! Counterintuitive Most Important Metric for Strategy (276 votes) Bitcoin Price 47.5% BTC per Share 35.1% Market Sentiment 10.9% Capital Formation 6.5% Sell 10,000 BTC (~$600M) to buy back $STRC $MSTR and increase cash reserves? (744 votes) Strong Support 32.4% Support 24.2% Oppose 23.3% Strong Opposition 20.2% Sell 50,000 BTC (~$3B) to buy back STRC/MSTR and increase cash reserves? (646 votes) Strong Support 31.1% Support 21.8% Oppose 26.8% Strong Opposition 20.3% Takeaways * Bitcoin Price was voted the most important metric. * BTC per Share was the leading company-specific metric. * Both the SELL 10,000 BTC and 50,000 BTC proposals received majority support. * The most surprising result was the consistency of Strong Support of SELLING Bitcoin. * 10,000 BTC sale: 32.4% * 50,000 BTC sale: 31.1% * Increasing the proposed SELLING Bitcoin by 5x reduced Strong Support by only 1.3 percentage points. * Prior to running the polls, I would have expected Strong Support for Bitcoin sales to be materially lower. Potential Contradiction * Respondents identified Bitcoin Price and BTC per Share as the two most important metrics. * Yet a majority supported selling Bitcoin to repurchase securities and increase cash reserves. * Selling Bitcoin reduces BTC holdings and BTC per Share, but may improve valuation, liquidity, balance-sheet strength, and share scarcity. * The results suggest many investors may be more open to active treasury management than the traditional "never sell Bitcoin" narrative would imply. Votes Received * Most Important Metric Poll: 276 votes * Sell 10,000 BTC Poll: 744 votes * Sell 50,000 BTC Poll: 646 votes Total Votes Across All Polls: 1,666 @saylor @phongle @CJ_Bitcoin @rohanhirani_ @bhakti_mandavia

Infinite Dollars Only 21 million Bitcoin Why do people call us lucky when the math is so simple. There isn't enough for everyone. Dollar is fake and worth nothing. Banking system is so broken.

This chart is damning. The death of true capitalism.

Growth isn’t linear. The stock market isn’t linear. In fact, most things in life aren’t linear — not even your golf handicap. When you adopt a new swing (or strategy), there’s always a setback. Once it becomes subconscious, you stop forcing it. That’s growth. When $MSTR transitions to the Prefs Era, the market takes time to understand. Once they do, they’ll buy in. #bitcoin #golf

😂😂

@saylor 17 years, never missed a block. That’s consistency every golfer dreams of.

Thank You, Satoshi.

@Strategy 17 years, never missed a block. That’s consistency every golfer dreams of.

17 years ago, at 2:10 pm EDT, Satoshi Nakamoto started a fire in cyberspace. Happy Bitcoin Whitepaper Day!

@BitcoinMagazine 17 years, never missed a block. That’s consistency every golfer dreams of.

The email that started a revolution. #Bitcoin

@DocumentingBTC 17 years, never missed a block. That’s consistency every golfer dreams of.

@BitcoinMagazine 17 years, never missed a block. That’s consistency every golfer dreams of.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "17 years after the white paper, the Bitcoin network is still operational and more resilient than ever." "Bitcoin never shuts down."

Every system built on trust breaks. Every block built on math endures. 17 years in — #Bitcoin never shut down.

17 years, zero downtime. No CEO, no bailout, no weekend off. #Bitcoin doesn’t need permission to keep running — that’s what real resilience looks like.