Bitus Capital

@Zero2HeroStocks @preetkailon Korean market is helping. Samsung +6% and SK Hynix +8% right now.

@preetkailon Looking good so far in the overnight hours.

$MU BIG DAY TOMORROW.. 700/720 held exact to the dot. Called it. Structure remembered that zone and price respected it perfectly. Now the real question shifts to tomorrow. Bulls need a clean break of 740 to even think about testing that 770-780 resistance zone. That's been the wall. And yes NVDA earnings just dropped. We all know how much of the tape moves on Nvidia. Could be the catalyst that decides everything for tomorrow. Watching closely.

I stand corrected. $ASTS was indeed mentioned in the SpaceX S-1. Named as a competitor in the largest IPO in stock market history. But more importantly, @SpaceX just told the SEC that Starlink Mobile -- their D2D satellite-to-phone business -- is a $740 billion total addressable market. Not my number. Not an analyst estimate. SpaceX's number. Filed with the SEC. Legally binding. $740 billion. For the market that $ASTS is the only public pure-play in. Let me put this in context. SpaceX S-1 breaks down their Connectivity TAM as: Starlink Broadband: $870B Starlink Mobile (D2D): $740B Total Connectivity: $1.6 trillion Their Connectivity segment today: $11.4B revenue at 63% EBITDA margins. The most profitable satellite business ever built. Their D2D today: 650 mobile satellites, 7.4 million monthly unique devices, ~30 countries. T-Mobile's CFO calls it "low usage, geographically contained." SpaceX next-gen broadband D2D (V2 Mobile): deploying on Starship in 2027. Needs Starship flying commercial payloads reliably, 3GPP Band n252 finalized, phone OEMs adding chipset support, and 1,200 new satellites built. 2027 is ambitious. 2028-2029 is realistic. $ASTS launches broadband D2D next month. Now the repricing math using SpaceX's own $740B TAM: $ASTS at $89 today = ~$34B market cap. That's pricing ASTS at 4.6% of the TAM that SpaceX itself just validated. SpaceX paid $17B for 65 MHz of D2D spectrum alone. Just the entry ticket to this $740B market. No satellites for it. No phones support it. No service. ASTS costs $34B and you get: satellites in orbit, 33 more in production, 98.9 Mbps proven, custom ASIC in production, $3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog, 60 carrier partners, all three US carriers forming a JV around it, and the only low-band indoor D2D spectrum access on Earth. Even at modest market capture: 1% of $740B = $7.4B revenue → at 15x = $111B → ~$290/share 2% of $740B = $14.8B revenue → at 12x = $178B → ~$466/share 3% of $740B = $22.2B revenue → at 10x = $222B → ~$581/share SpaceX is targeting a $1.75T valuation on $18.7B total revenue across Space, Connectivity, and AI. That's a 94x revenue multiple. The market is willing to pay for TAM capture. ASTS at $34B on a $740B TAM with confirmed technology, carrier partnerships, and a launch next month? That's not speculation. That's a mispricing. 63% EBITDA margins at scale. SpaceX just proved satellite connectivity prints money. The same business model applies to ASTS. When the repricing happens: This week -- analysts pull apart the S-1. ASTS named in the competitor section. The $740B D2D TAM enters institutional models for the first time. Next 2 weeks -- Goldman, Morgan Stanley publish SpaceX models. Every D2D valuation needs a public comparable. SpaceX just named one. June 8-12 -- SpaceX roadshow. Every financial network in America talks space. The only public D2D pure-play rides the wave. Mid-June -- BB8-10 launch on Falcon 9. $ASTS puts broadband hardware in orbit while SpaceX V2 Mobile is still on a roadmap. Late June -- Russell rebalancing. SpaceX IPO capital rotates into the space sector. SpaceX validated the TAM at $740B. Validated 63% margins. Named the competitor. And their broadband D2D is years away. The repricing clock started today. $ASTS 🛰️

@Remzztrades Hold and add every dip.

Now what?

@AnalysisOp @TradexWhisperer I was a bit more agressive regarding margins. But something between $2.000 and $3.000 is a very good approach.

@bituscapital @TradexWhisperer I've used a 42% Net Margin and a x8 Multiple ==> around $2000/sh. Taking into account the FW consideration, $2k by final-2028/2029 (under those metrics)

$MU $SNDK $DRAM 2027: $1.35T 2028: $1.73T 2029: $2.12T 2030: $2.63T That's Nomura's Global Memory TAM. Trillions. Are they out of their minds?

@TradexWhisperer So for 2.030 MU would have 605B in sales and 355B in earnings. Something like $320/share? With a 10x P/E means $3.200/share. That’s 450% upside in 4 years. That’s a 47% CAGR for a top 20 world company. Am I wrong?

@bituscapital Micron CEO said publicly. He intendeds to take 23-25% of the market.

Es muy bueno $ASTS 😅

@JUST_KAWS RDW

Which stock from the $10-$20 range are you most bullish on right now?

@StephenEllis_PR @MWM76 Si. Es exactamente “cuello de botella” 😅.

@bituscapital @MWM76 “cuello de botella” 🤣🤣 Tiene que haber una frase en español para esto!

$ASTS tiene amantes y detractores. Soy de los primeros. Una empresa que tiene todo para ganar. Un management impecable, un modelo de negocios sólido y una catarata de casi 4.000 patentes registradas. Tiene su cuello de botella en los lanzamientos de satélites. Pero una vez que su constelación esté completa, será una verdadera máquina de hacer dinero (con márgenes sobre ventas altísimos). Lo más interesante es que el mercado la ve como la posible competidora de SpaceX, cuando la realidad es absolutamente al revés. ASTS es líder tecnológico en el sector.

@DonWiggins20 I’m part of the mob too! Won’t sell a single share until Abel do.

@bituscapital Thank you.

@corey407woc They care about you. The wrong way, but they do.

Love getting text messages from friends telling me to sell all my $ASTS shares because they just heard about SpaceX IPO. 🅰️💎🙌😆

260.000 seguidores. La acción puede bajar o subir y habría explicaciones lógicas para ambas situaciones. Ahora… hablar de “burbuja” y de FOMO para una acción que cotiza a P/E futuros cercanos a 10 y PEG menor a 0,5 es una burrada gigantesca.

@EhrmantrautCap_ @TheLongInvest And $ASTS. That pair is almost 70% of my portfolio. Don’t mind the FUD.

@bituscapital @TheLongInvest Yep, feels good to be in $MU while the market is slowly catching on!

Always fun to see a post like this. @TheLongInvest observes the $MU chart, sees the stock go parabolic and thinks: "Hey, this is a bubble". What he casually leaves out, is that: - $MU earned below $8.00 EPS in FY2025. In FY2027, Micron is expected to earn above $100 EPS. - Micron's HBM supply is completely sold out for the coming year. There is simply not enough supply to keep up with rising demand. According to the CEO, Micron can only fulfill 50-67% of the demand. - Micron is operating in an oligopolistic market environment with only a few other major players, and extremely high barriers of entry. - The transition towards AI inference and agents (more CPU usage), alongside newer generations of CPUs/GPUs/TPUs, will lead to even more memory demand.

@blackrobert2024 @gneffa Me parece que la discusión interesante se basa en 2 parámetros. 1) Según el ratio hay empresas “baratas” y otras “caras”. No se puede aplicar una conclusión a la industria en general. 2) Sigue siendo real considerar a los semiconductores como industria “cíclica”? Yo creo que no.

Mientras Marko Kolanovic —ex chief strategist de JPMorgan, el tipo que leyó el crash de marzo 2020— marca que semis/memoria están extendidas, el fintwit local sigue sosteniendo que acciones como $MU y $SNDK están baratas porque su PEG es bajo. Gustavo Neffa @gneffa , Franco Tealdi @tealdif, entre otros. Marko Kolanovic @markoinny el 10/4: “Software selloff vs US semis/memory stocks past 3 days is so statistically extreme that it likely have to lead to a short term reversion (long $IGV short $SNDK?)” Traducción: el rally de memoria vs software está estadísticamente extremo, probable reversión de corto. Peter Lynch en One Up on Wall Street: “Podés perder más del 50% de tu inversión muy rápido si comprás cíclicas en la parte equivocada del ciclo. Las cíclicas son las acciones peor entendidas de todas.” Su regla es INVERSA al PEG clásico: P/E bajo en cíclica = earnings en pico = vender, no comprar. $MU es la cíclica más pura del SP500. Historial: • Pico mayo 2018, PEG ~0.13 (gritaba“regalo”) → cayó -53.7% • Pico enero 2022, PEG ~0.37 (gritaba“comprá, no te la pierdas campeon”) → cayó -49.8% • Hoy: PEG 0.08, más extremo que cualquier pico anterior. Marko Kolanovic dice que el rally es estadísticamente extremo. Lynch avisa que en cíclicas podés perder 50% rápido. Acá siguen vendiendo “barata”. Alguien está leyendo mal el manual.

@vulturetrades In

You know what I’m restarting the $100 to $10,000 challenge. I want everyone to have a fair shot at this. Last time it took me about 5 days, will try to do it faster this time. If you want to follow along, comment below to join Going to lock comments in 24 hours

@AwesomeBeast321 @spacanpanman Exactly. And my wish is to keep it that way.

@bituscapital @spacanpanman Confidence in management is as strong as ever. Yes there has been delays but which space company does not have delays.

$ASTS: 🚨 CLEAR STREET MAINTAINS BUY RATING AND REITERATES $117 PRICE TARGET Maintains ~45 BlueBird Launch Target in 2026 Summary Our AST SpaceMobile thesis remains driven by a key strategic dynamic: as SpaceX/Starlink (private) expands its Direct-to-Device offering, traditional mobile network operators are increasingly likely to rely on ASTS to protect their subscriber bases. We view ASTS as a critical partner for incumbent carriers serving roughly 3B mobile subscribers and expect platform adoption to deepen as competitive pressure rises. Key 1Q26 takeaways include: Launch Target Maintained: Expect ~45 satellites in orbit by year-end. Next Launch: mid-June with BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 via Falcon 9. Strong Liquidity: Cash of ~$3.5B, sufficient to fund the build-out. Valuation: We maintain our Buy rating and $115 price target, based on 20x 2029E EBITDA of ~$2.0B and ~12x revenue. Our DCF cross-check, including spectrum value, supports a valuation of ~$110/share. Key Points Diversified Launch Fleet Supports 2026E Target: ASTS maintained its target of ~45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by year-end 2026E. Private launch providers under consideration include: Blue Origin New Glenn: Capacity for up to 6–8 satellites per launch. SpaceX Falcon 9: Capacity for 3 satellites per launch. ULA Vulcan: Capacity for up to 5 satellites per launch. 1Q26 Results: Revenue of $14.7M missed our $35M estimate, though management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of $150M–$200M with sequential revenue growth expected throughout the year. Expenses were impacted by elevated stock-based compensation tied to hiring and bonuses, but underlying adjusted operating expenses improved sequentially from 4Q25. Commercial Partnerships Expanding: Management expects additional MNO partnerships in 2026. ASTS has secured more than $1.2B in contracted revenue commitments, with a partner ecosystem now spanning nearly 60 global operators. Defense Opportunities Emerging: ASTS secured three new government awards through prime contractors across secure communications and non-communications capabilities, with contributions expected to meaningfully support 2026 revenue. Liquidity Supports Current Plan: We project ASTS cash balances trough at ~$1.6B in 1Q28E before turning free cash flow positive. Management believes current liquidity is sufficient to support up to 100 BlueBird satellites, despite targeting ~45 launches in 2026E, with each satellite carrying estimated capex of ~$21M–$23M.

@AwesomeBeast321 @spacanpanman Because right now, confidence in management is the main asset ASTS has. And losing that one, could be catastrophic.

@bituscapital @spacanpanman what if they don't? what if it slides a month or two? would you sell and move on? If not, why worry