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@blade_

just a vagabond

California Katılım Ocak 2019
1.7K Takip Edilen4.2K Takipçiler
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blade
blade@blade_·
flight to quality
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brkevncap
brkevncap@brkevncap·
@blade_ yea, as long as they go light on it then people are gonna fund this venture the underlying probs too cheap and it appears they would be higher if people had access
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blade
blade@blade_·
Robostrategy issues shares at premium Sells to Roth Issuance and sale at premium increases NAV for everyone Use proceeds to plow into more robotics equity Ngl kinda like a ponzi but depends on new issuances to not aggressively dump which they r prob meticulously planning to account for
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brkevncap
brkevncap@brkevncap·
@blade_ the Roth deal is basically a deal where they can sell above nav and buy more robots right
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blade
blade@blade_·
@based16z "yo put my name on your song i'll pay u a few Ms"
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merp
merp@0xMerp·
got euphoric and got way too sized up chasing and gave back all the cbrs pnl woooooooooooooooooo
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blade
blade@blade_·
@ibuyrugs trump coin went to infinity first
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ibuyrugs
ibuyrugs@ibuyrugs·
cerebras ipo is like trump coin for equity markets
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blade
blade@blade_·
made a simple dashboard for the $CBRS IPO tomorrow, comparing current HL and @tradexyz prices to @Polymarket implied close prices based on odds and books curious to see how things play out tomorrow and how accurate these markets are on pricing such events cbrs.argus.vip
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blade
blade@blade_·
@0xMerp def possible but i feel that for such an IPO in the current climate it's a super high variance trade where you could possibly get fucked at open, and due to current spreads positions are difficult to open or close (and books could remain weird for a short bit after open too)
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merp
merp@0xMerp·
part of me wants to short because of the gap the other part of me wants to max long because i see 1/95 of NVDA valuation and that makes it seem extremely free if you look at it in a vacuum and assume it can be a complete frenzy
merp@0xMerp

with $CBRS listing in less than 12 hours, its currently trading at a 57% premium to the $185 open price on @tradexyz funding has mostly normalized open interest is at $19,139,131 @ $56.4b FDV at offering it ranks as the largest IPO since 2022, and the 10th most expensive IPO of all time $CBRS at $185 trades at 1/95 the full valuation of NVDA, 1/17 of both MU and SKHX, but trades at over a 4x price to sales multiple of $NVDA, more than 7x compared to $MU, and 17x compared to $SKHX below is some relevant data as well as a list of some previous IPO's, their first day MCAP, and their first day performance tomorrow should be a window of how far we are into the bubble, or the AI supercycle whichever way you want to describe it

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blade
blade@blade_·
I don’t believe their listed NAV is accurate due to the dates they contributed shares and the subsequent funding rounds ($39b series C Figure, series A-X at 5B for apptronik) The shares have been marked at previous round prices also take a look at their most recent filing (filed today) and you will see what they themselves believe is the floor
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Walmart Bagger
Walmart Bagger@BaggerWalmart·
@fejau_inc do you think its reasonable for this to trade at a 5x mnav and no lockup?
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fejau
fejau@fejau_inc·
@BaggerWalmart Dude I never even bought or sold the thing my god this is why I don’t bother with ever posting trades or tickers or anything. Good job dude
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blade
blade@blade_·
@knveth i remember i used to stay up all night manually sniping keys on friend tech and any spin off and then dumping them
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knv
knv@knveth·
friendtech era is still the most fun time I’ve had in crypto
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blade
blade@blade_·
Polymarket (on only $230k volume) shows an expected close price for $CBRS tomorrow at $311 Hyperliquid currently pricing at $290
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