Good evening all and happy weekend. I am out now with guests for much of the day so may not be posting much more tonight. If you have questions or requests, let me know here and I will catch up over the weekend.
@WmMcKinley25@gurgavin twitter clone merging with nuclear fusion company and you call the guy a moron…. 😂😂😂
Damn you are special kind of degenerates in this cult 🤦🏻♂️
DONALD TRUMP'S SOCIAL MEDIA APP TRUTH SOCIAL JUST REPORTED EARNINGS
Q1 REVENUE $0.9 MILLION
Q1 LOSS - $405.8 MILLION 📉
STOCK JUST HIT A NEW ALL TIME LOW $DJT
#Intel has had a mighty run up and is up 145% in 32 days. It is now approaching major resistance at the $100 round number and the long term orange trend line (shown in my weekly chart) at about $102.
That level should provide strong resistance and could be a good short trade IMO.
If it does pull back, gap window at $80.80 would be the first target and then I think it will eventually come back to the gap fill and major support at $68. This is the first area where I would consider a swing long trade.
More locally, I have added in a parallel to show the price range that is controlling this up move. $INTC #Nasdaq#trading#stocks#stocktips
The #stockmarket is having another big green day as #Oil pulls back 6%.
The #SP500 is up just over 1% and is now just 50 points from a new all time high. I have said recently I did not think it would make new highs but it looks like I could be wrong on this one. Double top and then the yellow trend line are now the resistance levels I would be watching.
On the #Nasdaq we are 400 points from the highs after a +1.5% day so far. Similar to the S&P, double top and the yellow lines are now both in play.
I remain short on both of these and have not changed my thesis that a bigger drop is coming so this will not change my positioning.
I always aim to be fully transparent and happy to say where I am wrong and for now this is one of them.
$ES $NQ $SPY $SPX $QQQ #trading#stockmarket
#NatGas down 1% today and continues to look weak. It is now slightly below the $2.73 support level which is the middle of the 3 support lines that make up this larger support zone.
No change in my plan here. I still think we are in the zone where a long trade is probably a good trade but I am still waiting for $2.63.
#NaturalGas $NG $XNG $UNG #trading
@icooperTrades Qatar has lost a fifth of its Nat Gas output capabilities which will take years to restore. This is in the FT today. Do you think this is a catalyst for a spike in buying?
@TheRealMariG@GOLF_com@TheMasters Americans can only dream of those prices. These are prices for a bunch of rich people. Rich people get everything better in the US. If you go to a sporting event that us peasants enjoy, the prices are at minimum twice as much.
@PixleyMarnie@toseendayo@KobeissiLetter This is 100% fact. He’s backed into a corner and he’ll only jump out if he can clam some kind of victory because of his baby ego.
@toseendayo@KobeissiLetter Trump has been put in a corner. He is trying to get out of a war he started. Oh he and his hillbilly cult followers are the laughingstock of the world. Fact.
BREAKING: President Trump says he is PAUSING the "period of energy plant destruction" in Iran by 10 days, until April 6th.
For the second time, within minutes of our call for bond market "intervention" and the 10Y Note Yield crossing 4.40%, Trump has delayed strikes.
Keep watching the bond market.
IRANIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS IRANIAN FORCES MONITORING 'ENEMY' MOVEMENTS AND WILL ATTACK VITAL INFRASTRUCTURE IN THAT REGIONAL COUNTRY IF THEY TAKE ANY STEPS
@gnoble79 Check notes..war is occurring and oil jumps to $100. When war is over it will fall back to $60. Nobody in there right mind would invest in oil right now. The definition of buying at the peak
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE
And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction.
Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero.
The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off.
The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations.
But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be.
Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it.
But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price:
What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time.
The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies.
Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy.
These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation.
That premium is evaporating.
Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend.
Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now.
Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER.
EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S.
Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018.
And the positioning is absurd:
US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008.
Everyone is out of position.
Now layer in commodities:
The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop.
And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away.
Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs.
The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it.
Now here's the setup:
Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular.
Commodities across the board.
Energy, industrial metals, precious metals.
And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy.
Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles.
The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years.
Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities.
The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US.
At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it.
This is the trade.
OK I need ur help.
I stupidly booked my daughters 3rd bday party for Sunday (which clashes with my Arsenal tickets to the Cup final).
Wife has said if i get past 3k followers by tonight we can change the party to the day before-Twitter, pls act accordingly…