Bmanbar1414
7 posts


🟢🟡 Not saying FACT TO FILE runs or doesn't run but recall Willie Mullins quotes in @SportingLife after the King George.
"Mark Walsh said Fact To File found the ground too good for him and we’ll probably keep him to a softer surface in the future."
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@DTAPCAP @CathieDWood @ARKInvest They lost me on the 22 fold increase in ff rate. Measured that way the Ecb did a 40,000 fold increase from .01 bp to 4% from mid 2022 to 2023!
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Best macro overview have read so far this year.
Well done @CathieDWood and the @ARKInvest team.
ark-invest.com/articles/marke…
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@KobeissiLetter They've also made a methodology change in recent months which has lead to this jump in the mean figure in this chart vs median which is stable!
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US consumers' inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years skyrocketed to 7.1% in October, the highest in over 40 years.
This metric has DOUBLED in just several months, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Survey.
To put this into perspective, median inflation expectations have been at ~3% for the last 3 years.
Consumer sentiment has been severely damaged by rising prices of necessities, and expectations are getting worse.
This comes as core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 41 months, the longest streak since the early 1990s.
Inflation is still a major concern for Americans.

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@guptavinay @KobeissiLetter "right tail of the distribtution of responses lengthen when realised inflation is higher, generating more skewness and pulling up the mean... Also recently moved to web from phone responses, web responders more willing to report extremely high expectation than phone."
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