Vinay Gupta

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Vinay Gupta

Vinay Gupta

@guptavinay

Tweets about investing and innovation No investment recommendations

Katılım Eylül 2008
2.2K Takip Edilen520 Takipçiler
Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
Agree.. but (there’s always a but in investing) it’s also true that quality independent of momentum has also not done well. And there are many fundamental changes happening simultaneously which have meaningfully eroded quality. Many of the past quality names are not coming back, some will. I haven’t seen this anywhere but there must some cyclical pattern to where secular winners of the past stop working as a large group. You would expect them to coincide with mega tech or macro cycles. The Nifty 50 of late 60s and 2017-2021 seem to be two eras where quality meaningfully outperformed and gained a lot of following.
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Tsachy Mishal
Tsachy Mishal@CapitalObserver·
@ChairliftCap Most people are momentum investors and the narrative about how they buy quality is fit to what they are buying. This is the first time you can't fit that narrative on to what has the momentum
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Chairlift Capital
Chairlift Capital@ChairliftCap·
I cannot remember another time that everyone was so convinced that long term investing is dead, quality is a bad thing and momentum is all that matters
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
ChatGPT-live is out of this world.. stellar!!🤯 @OpenAI would be great if the GPT-live could also join voice calls!
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
@chribjel anyone willing to take spacex equity will be acquired by spacex
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Christoffer Bjelke
Christoffer Bjelke@chribjel·
calling it now: vercel will be acquired by spacex within the year
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
@k3ithmccullough @RagingVentures trades at 3.5x ebitda, 2-2.5x turn discount to CMCSA it does look attractive to buy at these levels but hasn't been value accretive for cmcsa shareholders
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Raging Capital Ventures
Raging Capital Ventures@RagingVentures·
Bought a bunch of $CMCSA on this fade back to around $25. While it will take around a year to breakup the business (and they don’t plan to buyback stock during this time), separating media/theme parks from cable should be very accretive to the valuation.
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Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research)
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research)@TSOH_Investing·
Mike Cavanagh, January 2026: "We don't really see a strategic advantage, or making NBCUniversal stronger, by separating it from the cable side of the house or putting it outside of Comcast... It doesn't get stronger by being smaller as a standalone entity."
Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) tweet media
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Matthew Keys
Matthew Keys@MatthewKeysLive·
My guess is the separation of NBC Universal from Comcast is the latter putting chess pieces in place to acquire a wireless company to pair with its land-based broadband offering. My bet is on Verizon. thedesk.net/2026/06/comcas… $CMCSA $VZ
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
@compound248 I’m skeptical of cmcsa+chtr but let’s check back in ‘28
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay

The NBCU spin - too little too late and seems to have been rushed out the door to make the cable assets available for a potential tie-up. The earlier VSNT spin was a big blunder. The most likely combination would be wireless + cable, but given the excessive leverage at all co's I would say it's a low probability outcome. All the SPCX + {cable, wireless} talk makes little sense. Maybe a JV of some sort but the logic for SPCX rushing to become a traditional telco escapes me. Doubt they're looking to get a 6x EBITDA multiple slapped on that part of their business! Telcos should be singularly focused on bringing down leverage; even though their cost of debt is optically low it's making the cost of equity very very high. $CMCA $CHTR $TMUS $VZ $T

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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
@sherman4949 VSNT meet NBCU
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay

The NBCU spin - too little too late and seems to have been rushed out the door to make the cable assets available for a potential tie-up. The earlier VSNT spin was a big blunder. The most likely combination would be wireless + cable, but given the excessive leverage at all co's I would say it's a low probability outcome. All the SPCX + {cable, wireless} talk makes little sense. Maybe a JV of some sort but the logic for SPCX rushing to become a traditional telco escapes me. Doubt they're looking to get a 6x EBITDA multiple slapped on that part of their business! Telcos should be singularly focused on bringing down leverage; even though their cost of debt is optically low it's making the cost of equity very very high. $CMCA $CHTR $TMUS $VZ $T

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Alex Sherman
Alex Sherman@sherman4949·
Investment idea: Needing scale, the soon to be spinoff NBCUniversal acquires Versant.
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
The RKLB + IRDM logic also seems tenuous and very much a late cycle phenomena. When did narrowband IoT sat connectivity all of a sudden become so valuable? Esp. with a much more aggressive new competitor in Starlink, and Amazon.
Vinay Gupta tweet mediaVinay Gupta tweet media
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
The NBCU spin - too little too late and seems to have been rushed out the door to make the cable assets available for a potential tie-up. The earlier VSNT spin was a big blunder. The most likely combination would be wireless + cable, but given the excessive leverage at all co's I would say it's a low probability outcome. All the SPCX + {cable, wireless} talk makes little sense. Maybe a JV of some sort but the logic for SPCX rushing to become a traditional telco escapes me. Doubt they're looking to get a 6x EBITDA multiple slapped on that part of their business! Telcos should be singularly focused on bringing down leverage; even though their cost of debt is optically low it's making the cost of equity very very high. $CMCA $CHTR $TMUS $VZ $T
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
@rennyzucker There are 59 mentions of "trillion" in the SPCX S-1 :) At this point banks can say anything...
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Renny
Renny@rennyzucker·
You can’t just say stuff like that at a bank lmao
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone

$TMUS $SPCX - SPACEX-T-MOBILE TAKEOVER RUMORS EMERGE A TD Cowen analyst says SpaceX could acquire T-Mobile to accelerate its wireless ambitions if it can't secure a network-sharing deal. The report cites T-Mobile's existing Starlink partnership as a strategic fit. The idea is purely speculative, but highlights growing competitive pressure from SpaceX on the telecom industry.

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Greg Kamradt
Greg Kamradt@GregKamradt·
obvious in retrospect but I had no idea there was a black market for tokens
Greg Kamradt tweet media
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
Token laundering! Frontier lab tokens too expensive. Let Chinese labs distill them and then create open weights models. Voila >10x reduction in cost!
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Vinay Gupta
Vinay Gupta@guptavinay·
If there's no Iran deal, the world is 4 weeks away from: 1. A worldwide depression 2. A permanently closed Strait of Hormuz 3. If US didn't sneak out tankers, oil would have gone to $300 vs. $125 "Also we run out of reserves in about four weeks, you know there are reserves all over the world and we would really run out, and there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it, and you want to see bedlam."
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Keşfet

@ChairliftCap @OpenAI @chribjel @k3ithmccullough @RagingVentures @TSOH_Investing @MatthewKeysLive @compound248