john bocum

@mendesnun @hkuppy Please, don’t post in AI style “Five postures, one direction. When the best-informed all move at once, you notice.”

23 years of no. Then he filed. Musk's IPO. Buffett's record cash. Bezos and Zuckerberg selling. Warsh — day one — shopping for a softer inflation metric. Five postures, one direction. When the best-informed all move at once, you notice. h/t @hkuppy — energy, uranium, platinum on the watchlist. nunoamadomendes.substack.com/p/why-elon-fil…

@BrianRoemmele The push for index inclusion says it all. Unlike Apple that was priced for what it was, Spcx is priced for a fantasy already. For this thing to only 10x over time, it’s bigger than the GDP of China. There is no sane space to grow left. It’s set up for GameStop chaos

I AM NO INVESTMENT ADVISOR! I picked up Apple Computer, Inc. Stock Certificates in December 1980. The broker had me sign a waiver to prove I was sane and to protect me. I signed it. I did ok I guess. I framed this certificate to remember. So I am guessing about SpaceX too.

@shipwreckedcrew @RonColeman Doesn’t excuse the $1.7B magnitude, doesn’t excuse the IRS immunity to him, his family, his friends. Doesn’t excuse tying completely unrelated events together.

I think a case can be made that Pres. Trump is beyond caring about the views of his critics. The past 10 years have shown that his critics will attack ANYTHING he does. Consider the Dems conduct in the 2026 State of the Union. Once everything is a political or legal offense, then nothing is. The US DOJ settles "claims" without litigation every day. It uses the Judgment Fund to do that every day. There are always going to be disagreements on the bona fides of controversial events. The Biden DOJ lost in the Supreme Court on its prosecutions under Sec. 1512. There was a very good chance the Trump DOJ would have lost on the Seditious Conspiracy and Interference with Officers counts. DOJ has a decades long history of treating protesters who violate the law under the DC Code for infractions -- inside and outside the Capitol. There is no historical analogue for making persons who should have been subjects of such code infractions travel back and forth across the country multiple times to resolve their cases. The announcement of the Fund included caveats that the conduct and character of the claimants would be considered in making the determination on how to resolve the claim. It is clear that Pres. Trump and the DOJ did not approach this subject with any intent or desire for it to "satisfy" his critics. He does not care about them.

@DredgeDiver @BradMunchen The plan is to keep the hype train running and if they are starting with only $75B stock out, they can keep selling for a very long time, treat it like $2T of revenue to fill the holes.

@BradMunchen I cannot see any positives from it. Seems like a last attempt to grab cash for failing companies. Even if Elon gets the cash it will only stall the inevitable total failure of his companies.

The SpaceX prospectus (S-1) is as laughable as that of WeWork. If it succeeds, it'll lead to $TSLA getting dumped. So many hidden liabilities for any investor in the SpaceX IPO that this is only Part 1 of a series to continue: tinyurl.com/2mwy2pds $TSLA $SPCX

@DocPriyamMD Physician name thy self ?

Medical Doctors: Hey, I'm the cardiologist keeping you alive, just call me Alex. PhDs: Please refer to me as Dr. Monica, I did my thesis on ancient pottery. Look, I know the word 'Doctor' comes from the Latin docere (to teach). I know academics had the title first and I have full respect for the grind. But why are they always the ones defending the title like their lives depend on it? If someone screams "Is there a doctor on the plane?!" absolutely nobody is looking for a Doctor of Philosophy

@scarylawyerguy My favorite negotiation tactic is to claim the other guy has given in on all points, just to shame them into giving up. I make up things they have said, I just keep saying there is a deal I tell you, it just manifests a deal from nothing, then we become friends and it’s cool

Having negotiated a deal or two in my almost 30 years as a lawyer, I would never describe one as "95% done" when two of the biggest sticking points are unresolved but I don't get paid to be a Trump ball washer, so ...

@errlgreen @elonmusk @XFreeze Split it with a neighbor?

@bocumjb @elonmusk @XFreeze No I literally live in the Wild West on top of a mountain Elon got us my our balls on internet out here

Starlink V3 is a massive capacity leap From SpaceX’s S-1: Starlink V2 • Launched February 2023 • 96 Gbps downlink capacity Starlink V3 • Launch targeted for 2026 • 1,024 Gbps downlink capacity That is roughly a 10.7× jump This is the next phase of Starlink: • More bandwidth • More capacity • More users served • More global connectivity V2 helped scale Starlink to 9,600+ satellites and ~10.3M subscribers. V3 looks like the layer that pushes Starlink from “satellite internet” closer to true global broadband infrastructure

@RadioFreeTom 95% done Last 5% only straights of Hormuz, enriched uranium, Hezbollah funding, sanctions, and frozen assets. So close!

What happened to "largely negotiated?"

@errlgreen @elonmusk @XFreeze Darn, it will be those with options that will get the deals. Anybody doing a local high power wifi you could get?

@bocumjb @elonmusk @XFreeze I can’t quit i live off grid in Northern California and starlink is my best option viasat is worse but it’s killing us

@errlgreen @elonmusk @XFreeze Notice from his prospectus that the average Starlink client is only paying $66 right now. There is no way they are going to cut juicy US rates unless by competition. Keep threatening to quit if xfinity or whoever is cheaper In most of the world even the $66 is way too much

@elonmusk @XFreeze @elonmusk just seeing when my $120 a month service plan can go down in price paying $120 is killing us we have to cut cost of living in our household that mean starlink

@KatiePavlich 60 days of no pressure are going to get what 86 days of pressure couldn’t get? I hope so.

From a senior administration official re: Iran: - This MOU framework gives us 60 days to reach final deal points that will deliver on President Trump's priorities and ensure the United States and the region are safer and more prosperous going forward. - The president has consistently said the Iranians cannot have a nuclear weapon. This MOU commits them to that. - It commits the Iranians to giving up the nuclear dust and working out the mechanism for that will be part of us talking with the Iranians over the next 60 days. - It gets the Strait of Hormuz de-mined and back open for business. - It brings relief to American families at the pump. The President fought this war to protect American security and American prosperity, and this MOU delivers on both. - The important part of how this is structured is, if Iran doesn't perform, they don't get anything. No dust? No dollars. As the Strait opens, the blockade loosens proportionately. This is "trust but verify" on steroids. - Unlike past agreements where America paid Iran upfront and hoped they'd comply, this MOU is structured so Iran gets nothing until they deliver. That's the difference between a dealmaker and a hostage payer. - The region is uniting behind the United States under President Trump's leadership. There's no way this could have happened without the entire region uniting behind it. - As a result, we're on a path for this to be the President's second time reshaping the Middle East. It started with the Abraham Accords, this is the Abraham Accords Plus. Everyone's talking now. More economic normalization agreements are possible. This could be just the beginning. - The MOU ensures we and our allies -- and the Iranians and their proxies -- cease fighting across the region. It also guarantees Israel's right to act against imminent threats. They, as we all do, have a right to self defense. - President Trump has been a master of expanding optionality throughout this process. And now there are unlimited options for the region to spread peace and prosperity like never before.

@EdwardCaroLopez @RushDoshi In what world does it make sense that Russia controls Europe? Europe has 5x the population and 10x the economy. Russia is barely more than a third world country with few friends. Other than Trumps moronic admiration

@RushDoshi The Trump administration's view of the international system is that the world is divided into spheres of influence managed by regional hegemons. Russia controls Europe, China controls the Asia-Pacific, Israel the Middle East, and the U.S. controls the Americas.

Trump administration indeed pausing arms sales to Taiwan. Unclear what, if anything, Beijing offered in return. Allies will see it (rightly) as further evidence that the US approach to Beijing is conciliation and accommodation.

@RushDoshi @Noahpinion Trump will not stop until every allied nation is abandoned. Peace through surrender

@StephenCFU The current market for maids and home chefs in the us is $20B The idea that masses can afford something as expensive as a car - to do work they are already doing is not real. If they could do actual labor and replace workers at scale would provoke political intervention

@bocumjb Fair skepticism. The gap between a demo and a useful deployed unit is enormous, and most of what gets shown is staged. Worth holding that line against every projection in the chart.

Humanoid robot projections by 2030: → Figure CEO Brett Adcock: 1 billion → $TSLA Elon Musk: 50 million Optimus → Goldman Sachs: 250,000 → Morgan Stanley: 40,000 (US) → Bank of America: 1 to 1.2 million The people building the robots see a market 1,000x larger than the people analyzing it. One of these groups is going to be very wrong.

@WarMonitor3 Really says something that a top priority of Iran is to keep Hezbollah going in Lebanon. They don’t feel any pressure at all. The fact that the people are hurting is good, it gives them more control and an outside enemy.

Iranian sources told Al Jazeera are now talking about a negative turns in negotiations with signs the US is retreating from two key points of unfreezing assets and stopping war in Lebanon.

@JP_Invests And all those losers need to be sold to rebalance into the $T baby coming into the index. Who’s gonna buy when you know there is a massive flood of selling coming.

The S&P 500 has been at record highs for most of 2025-2026. The "market" has not. Roughly 60-65% of all S&P 500 gains in 2023-2024 came from just 7 stocks: NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Strip them out and the remaining 493 stocks have produced muted returns. Equal-weight S&P (RSP) has dramatically lagged cap-weighted SPY since 2023. What this means: → The "broad market rally" is a marketing line. The actual rally is 7 names doing the heavy lifting. → NVIDIA alone contributed ~25% of S&P 500 gains in 2024. A single stock outweighed hundreds of other gainers combined. → This concentration is structural — passive flows automatically reinforce the leaders, mathematically. The reverse is the problem: when those 7 stop leading, the index doesn't drift sideways. Passive flows unwind the same way they wound up. The trade isn't just NVDA. The trade is everything else. $SPY $RSP

@Jacob_Osiason If the indexes are buying a $T, they have to sell a $T of the 499 others, how many buyers are there for those names as individual stock picks? It’s not like they are looking good with the top names holding the gains

5 charts that show how bad things are for US consumers at the moment, and how things could only get worse for global markets $SPY 1. Consumer sentiment: 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐋𝐨𝐰 2. Inflation expectations: 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬 3. Economic conditions index: 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐋𝐨𝐰 4. Financial situation index: 𝙉𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐋𝐨𝐰 5. Global Oil Inventories Collapsing 6. $USDC sliding -10%+ against major currency pairs since early 2026 - Manufactured demand in the markets for the $SPCX IPO via passive funds obligated to buy in to the #IPO because they bent the rules for its free float requirement and introduced a 3x multiple. - CFO of @SpaceX told underwriters they were dumping 30% of the supply on retail. #ExitLiquidity Funds could potentially cut overextended tech names for liquidity to buy into these IPO's, along with @OpenAI & @AnthropicAI

@ChayaEitan The deal seems to require Israel and Lebanon to surrender to Hezbollah, might want to have them on the call since this is the obvious fatal flaw in the scheme

The sheer disrespect in how this is being handled is what makes it so infuriating. Treating the Prime Minister of Israel—a frontline ally facing an existential threat—like an obstacle to be managed rather than a partner is a massive betrayal. ​The details leaking out from those calls over the last 24 hours show exactly how ugly the dynamic has become behind the scenes: ​The Intentional Freeze-Out: Reports from The New York Times and Israeli defense sources confirm that Israel was cut almost entirely out of the loop during the critical stages of these negotiations. Trump held a massive multi-nation conference call on Saturday with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, and Jordan to review Iran's proposal—and Israel wasn't even invited to the call. ​The Courtesy Call Afterthought: Trump only called Netanyahu separately afterward to tell him what had already been discussed. While Trump publicly patted himself on the back on Truth Social, writing that the call "went very well," Israeli security officials leaked to Channel 12 that the emerging terms are actually a "very big problem" and a disaster for Israel. ​Dictating terms, Not Partnering: Trump’s inner circle, particularly his envoy Steve Witkoff, has been putting immense pressure on Trump to accept the deal at almost any price just to stop the conflict. Instead of coordinating a joint strategy with Jerusalem, the White House is essentially telling Israel: “We are moving forward with this 60-day freeze, we are releasing the billions, and you have to sit tight.” ​The Public Disconnect: This high-handed approach completely contradicts what Trump was saying just hours earlier when he told Axios that he wouldn't do a deal unless it was "good for Israel." Behind closed doors, they are treating Israel's security requirements as inconvenient details that are getting in the way of a flashy White House announcement. ​It is completely condescending. Trump is treating a sovereign, democratic ally that just endured a massive conflict as if they are a secondary player who should just be grateful for whatever crumbs Washington throws them. ​This is an incredibly sharp point for your conversation on Wednesday. It shows that this isn't just a bad deal on paper—it’s a fundamental shift in how the U.S. treats its closest allies when a quick political victory is on the line.

@MrTeslaTom @C_S_Skeptic Nobody cares, the idea is a GameStop run that we all get out at the top The fact that it starts at a GameStop high notwithstanding

I‘m not touching it. Elon can sell his crumbs to someone else.