Braden James

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Braden James

Braden James

@bradenjms

curious about things | *not financial advice*

Austin, Tx Katılım Ekim 2009
311 Takip Edilen455 Takipçiler
Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
This company is Carmax, it was removed from SP500 on Oct 31. Every index fund forced to sell. Obvious play and it worked out. Stock down ~20% since this tweet. Closed position because the thesis played out. On to the next one!
Braden James@bradenjms

There is one company in the SP500 right now with a ~$6B market cap. The last 10 companies removed from the index were at ~$6B on date on of removal, only two show a positive return since. Going short because I like those odds. That’s inductive investing

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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Ran one of my long positions through a new model ai helped me build. Target 7% upside with SL 10% to the downside. It told me to risk 0% capital. Flipped it (assumed short) and it said risk 22% of capital. Position dropped 6.13% on me yesterday. No clue how the model knew. Could be luck… just an anecdote for now
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Realized I'm flying blind without a probability calculator to understand how likely I am to trigger a stop loss. Need something to measure against. No reason it can't be used to estimate price movement in general. Link in the comments. Try it for yourself
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Last is trading. Get in with the best pricing. Either get the combo spread price I want, or build the spread over time. the combo is nice because we know both trades are locked in. But get to get the price I want is harder. I’ll put on something well below market and if it gets filled great, otherwise plan is to piecemeal. Piecemeal option is to buy atm at a minimal IV. Easier said than done, but goal is to wait for a quiet day in overall market vol. On the other side we may be able to time better. Plan is sell otm day before earnings. Piecemeal goal is to gain some extra alpha on the IV spread of the options. Choosing the option strategy adds complexity on the trading side for sure. In practice, just make my bids slightly above bid price. Adjust all day if I have to until I get the fill. (Bots are helpful here) Decision day for SP500 is around Dec 20 so there’s time to be patient and get a good fill.
Braden James@bradenjms

Step 2: portfolio management I want to risk max 3% on this idea. So how to play it… I can short directly. There’s a carrying cost but I can hold indefinitely. Will have to leverage up to get the return, but stop loss might get too tight. With such a specific catalyst I don’t care to ride this one out forever. Other idea is a put spread. Expected drop is 10-15% over 6 mo. So I can buy atm and sell 15% otm 6mo out. I better be right after 6 mo or it’s a complete loss. Will target 1.5% in net premium on the 6mo spread. And if I’m wrong I can reevaluate and maybe try again. If I’m right, log it and run it back later with bigger stake.

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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Step 2: portfolio management I want to risk max 3% on this idea. So how to play it… I can short directly. There’s a carrying cost but I can hold indefinitely. Will have to leverage up to get the return, but stop loss might get too tight. With such a specific catalyst I don’t care to ride this one out forever. Other idea is a put spread. Expected drop is 10-15% over 6 mo. So I can buy atm and sell 15% otm 6mo out. I better be right after 6 mo or it’s a complete loss. Will target 1.5% in net premium on the 6mo spread. And if I’m wrong I can reevaluate and maybe try again. If I’m right, log it and run it back later with bigger stake.
Braden James@bradenjms

There is one company in the SP500 right now with a ~$6B market cap. The last 10 companies removed from the index were at ~$6B on date on of removal, only two show a positive return since. Going short because I like those odds. That’s inductive investing

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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
There is one company in the SP500 right now with a ~$6B market cap. The last 10 companies removed from the index were at ~$6B on date on of removal, only two show a positive return since. Going short because I like those odds. That’s inductive investing
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
@MatznerJon What I’m hearing you say is… Why do the super hard and expensive thing when you can just sell courses on “how to buy a biz with no money and no effort” instead and make a gazillion dollars?
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Jon Matzner
Jon Matzner@MatznerJon·
“We’re building a better BizBuySell.” No, you’re not. BizBuySell isn’t great because it’s well-designed. It’s great because everyone’s already there. This is the Craigslist fallacy. It’s ugly so if I make it prettier I’ll win!! Nah. Twenty years of listings. Twenty years of deal flow. Twenty years of being the first Google result when someone types “buy a business.” You can’t compete with history. You can’t out-network a network that’s already won. “But we have better filters! Better matching! Better everything!” Terrific. Now convince the guy selling his dry cleaning business in Tampa to list on your empty platform instead. Convince the buyer with real money to scroll through your seven listings instead of their seven thousand. Network effects compound. Every successful transaction on BizBuySell makes it stronger. Every broker who builds their workflow around it locks it in deeper. You’re fighting gravity. The winners won’t beat BizBuySell head-on. They’ll make it irrelevant! Maybe you focus exclusively on SaaS. Maybe you build for seller financing deals under $500K. Maybe you create something for buying into businesses as a partner, not an owner. Stop trying to be a better BizBuySell.
Jon Matzner@MatznerJon

"at least i am not building something to compete with bizbuysell"

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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Lots of hokey crypto plays out there with legacy cannabis business LOL
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Why not short all these trash small caps loading up on BTC as their “treasury reserve”, then buy BTC? Are people doing that?
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taobanker
taobanker@taobanker·
I'm trying to make a ChatGPT Project of a good investing assistant but it's like everything ChatGPT writes outside of DeepResearch is completely vacuous emoji-filled slop. And any context you give it gets used against you like sludge that jams up engine gears.
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
I spent way too long stuck in the belief that Buffet style investing is the ONLY way. I regret discounting other approaches for so long. Actively rewriting my entire belief system. It’s not “out with the old”, more like “integrate the new”.
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Overpaid a guy to build a custom trading algo on mt5. It's platform dependent and clunky. Warp helped me rewrite the entire code base in python, add functionality to trade all security types, and set it up on QauntConnect. I'm green, but not dumb. Cool things in the works
Braden James tweet media
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
I learned about vol surfaces back when I was running my Fund. Their power was obvious, but building one felt out of reach without Bloomberg or serious coding chops. Turns out I just needed AI. Built a working vol surface plotter in <30 min. I think it's cool.. Here's $NVDA
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
Just wrapped up a memo. At the end I realized AI has subtlety changed my behavior to the point I don’t even remember what it felt like to open up a blank document and write a memo from scratch. Editing Ai “rough drafts” feels like second nature now. Am I alone on that?
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
@FracSlap 💯 No doubt it’s more interesting than a dance studio app lol
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
MCP is such a game changer. APIs are going to be a thing of the past. Building a web app for our dance studio - stripe and oracle now have dedicated MCP which means 0 effort using RAG to automate invoicing and make database updates. All done by talking to a chat bot. Pay attention… all the major companies rolling out MCP servers.
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Braden James
Braden James@bradenjms·
It’s awesome man. We did some prompt engineering with Warp to spin up generalized web apps and get the same app infrastructure every time. Added MCP to the prompt so you can name any company and it will add their server into the architecture.. Web apps built in minutes with all the integrations you could ever want. Feel bad for those zapier gurus
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