Bradley Wascher

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Bradley Wascher

Bradley Wascher

@bradwascher

data editor @InsideElections | 2024 contributing author @The_Almanac, prev. pollster & redistricting consultant | Hilltopper-Hoya

Washington, DC Katılım Mayıs 2012
352 Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
Today @InsideElections released Baseline scores for all 435 congressional districts! Baseline is an incredibly deep average, based on CD-level breakdowns of nearly every federal and statewide election in each state between 2016 and 2022. Here's how we did it🧵
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Jacob Rubashkin@JacobRubashkin

Today is an exciting day at @InsideElections: for the first time, we have a complete set of Baseline by congressional district! Over the past year, @bradwascher has calculated nearly 8,000 CD-level results across 435 districts to crunch our unique score. insideelections.com/news/article/h…

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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
Tonight's results are further evidence that the current Democratic "floor" in #Virginia might be ~D+3: Ever since Republicans swept in 2021, Dems have held on — even amid GOP-leaning environments (2022/2024), a scandalous AG nominee (2025), and a nationalized special referendum
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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
For comparison, this is the map among ALL counties reporting votes (meaning things can change) Here's something I'm certain about: In post-election autopsies, we'll be talking more about the green areas in NoVa than the orange counties in the southwest
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Bradley Wascher@bradwascher

My view (so far) of the VA redistricting amendment: Among the 61 counties/equivalents that are >95% reported, NO is underperforming benchmarks — needed for a statewide tie — by ~2 points If YES wins statewide, it'll probably be a few points lower margin than Dems in 2025/2024

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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
My view (so far) of the VA redistricting amendment: Among the 61 counties/equivalents that are >95% reported, NO is underperforming benchmarks — needed for a statewide tie — by ~2 points If YES wins statewide, it'll probably be a few points lower margin than Dems in 2025/2024
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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
y'all better stream Into The BradleyVerse when it drops this summer
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Charles Franklin
Charles Franklin@PollsAndVotes·
Wisconsin State Senator Jessie James (R) has decided not to seek reelection. He would have faced Dem Sen. Jeff Smith in SD 31, in a two-incumbent race. Sen. Quinn is running in James’ 23rd, moving from the 25th.
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Roll Call
Roll Call@rollcall·
Can Senate Republicans buck midterm history again? ow.ly/HUEM50YJ1nv
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Carroll Doherty
Carroll Doherty@CarrollDoherty·
It's often overlooked how important Catholic voters were to Trump's 2024 win. Voters overall shifted 6 pts to Trump between 2020-24. Change among Catholics was about double that (13 points), going from roughly even to Trump +12. This from @pewresearch validated voter study. pewresearch.org/politics/2025/…
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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
VoteHub's live precinct maps have transformed how I track results. This is, whenever available, the most engaging way to follow along on election night — with lots to dive into the next morning
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini

Incredible work by @Varun_Vish, @lukewines, @josh_metcalf, and @austinjpark to get precinct-level results from 71 of 72 Wisconsin counties into the @VoteHub map just 17 hours after polls closed. Wisconsin is one of the toughest states to pull this off in.

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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
Clay Fuller (R) won last night's special election in #GA14 by 12 points — but the real story is the generational overperformance by Shawn Harris (D) Harris finished 15 points ahead of the typical Democrat — 44% vote share vs 29% — per @InsideElections Baseline Here's how🧵
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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
Meanwhile, Fuller underperformed the typical Republican Baseline in GA-14 by 14 points — 56% vs 70% — virtually a mirror of Harris' +15 VAR But taken together, could be interpreted as a sign of Democratic enthusiasm — BEYOND simply a repudiation of the incumbent Republican party
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Bradley Wascher
Bradley Wascher@bradwascher·
GA-14 was always going to be a GOP hold — Republicans typically carry it by over 40 points All nine of the district's full counties are also deep red (and the chunk of Cobb is R+19) So Harris saw many of his best overperformances in counties that were less Republican-leaning:
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@JacobRubashkin @pewresearch @notanavgburner @InsideElections @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano