Brent Barbata

@LibertyLockPod Or they were hacked.

This is somehow the least insane thing we've seen from the white house this month.

@MikolDF @ABC7 bmws are gayyyyyy

@ABC7 Cyclists are f@g$. This is acceptable behavior. Good work BMW driver. Fuck you, shaved legs guy.

The cyclists reported that the driver of a blue BMW veered into the bike lane as they traveled 30 to 40 miles per hour downhill. According to the riders, one cyclist jumped onto the sidewalk to avoid being hit. They also said a passenger in the BMW threw water at them before the vehicle sped away. spr.ly/6013B6e8Hd

@mortgagetruth Loss aversion

It's funny when mortgage rates go up .50%, everyone says we're doomed. But when rates fall .50%, everyone says it's actually not a huge difference in payment.

@aleabitoreddit 🤔🤔🤔

Robinhood Ventures $RVI, is a major red flag. $HOOD concentrates in firms that raised at inflated valuations like: - Stripe @ $140B - Databricks @ $134B - Revolut @ $75B A real venture fund would look like: 1. Lightmatter 2. Cerebras 3. SiFive 4. Anduril 5. Anthropic 6. World Labs 7. Fireblocks 8. Bytedance 9. Discord 10. Physical Intelligence amid others. Majority of this fund is concentrated in firms that freshly raised extremely high valuations. I would not touch this from a mile away.

@VladTheInflator Zillow

Zillow revises down its home price forecast again. The company’s Home Value Index now predicts U.S. home prices to rise just 0.5% over the next 12 months. Zillow had originally predicted 2.9% for 2025, ended up at .2%

@mikesimonsen @grok Estimate the long-run trend using OLS and test whether the time coefficient is negative.

If you look at this chart of mortgage rates, do you say rates are: Up, Flat, or Down? (poll follows below)

@justicenow_alan @jonbrooks Gravity isn't popular with many folks either, but physics is physics. And the market is going to do market shit.

@jonbrooks You do realize that the total number of houses isn't really the determining factor, right? Also, are you advocating for prices to decline significantly? I don't think that will be popular.

Everyone keeps saying America has a “housing shortage.” It doesn’t. Divide total homes by population and you get this: We’ve never had more housing per person than we do right now. The problem isn’t supply. It’s prices.

@VladTheInflator money printing => asset inflation

What causes this? 1. Usury 2. Mass immigration 3. Outsourcing

@itsakhilp @Uniquifying @toddsaunders Velocity buys you 100 ways to die slowly. Wishing you good vibes.

@brentbarbata @Uniquifying @toddsaunders you couldn't be any less arbitrary

The token cost to build a production feature is now lower than the meeting cost to discuss building that feature. Let me rephrase. It is literally cheaper to build the thing and see if it works than to have a 30 minute planning meeting about whether you should build it. It’s wild when you think about it. This completely inverts how you should run a software organization. The planning layer becomes the bottleneck because the building layer is essentially free. The cost of code has dropped to essentially 0. The rational response is to eliminate planning for anything that can be tested empirically. Don’t debate whether a feature will work. Just build it in 2 hours, measure it with a group of customers, and then decide to kill or keep it. I saw a startup operating this way and their build velocity is up 20x. Decision quality is up because every decision is informed by a real prototype, not a slide deck and an expensive meeting. We went from “move fast and break things” to “move fast and build everything.” The planning industrial complex is dead. Thank god.

@itsakhilp @Uniquifying @toddsaunders too many features != lots of features

@brentbarbata @Uniquifying @toddsaunders lots of features != hard to use

@AIPAC @MassieforKY That’s a crazy chart. Thanks for bringing to everyone’s attention.

Wow, @MassieforKY is accusing a Navy SEAL of dual loyalty. Massie has every right to post garbage like this - just as US citizens have every right to support Ed Gallrein. It’s not “foreign interests” that lead people to oppose Massie - his voting record does that all by itself.

@KaydenBenny @RonDeSantis Now sellers are controlling interest rates? Lol I'm starting to think @VladTheInflator might be right here.

@brentbarbata @RonDeSantis You're right. Interest rates.

Home sales will pick up when prices drop.

@KaydenBenny @RonDeSantis Many sellers who bought in the last few years are already losing value in real terms; some in nominal terms. If nobody is buying, and they can’t control rates, how do they move their homes? They have one lever. That’s it.

Hey Brent, who are the sellers going to sell to if no one's buying? Are you expecting sellers to sell their homes for so cheap it beats a 4% interest rate? They'll have to lower their prices $100k minimum. Losing YEARS of appreciation value they've been building, many sellers will be underwater.

@KaydenBenny @RonDeSantis Sellers don’t control rates, only price. So if sellers need to sell, they have one lever: price.

Brother how do rates become irrelevant? You think someone's buying a home worth $350k for $250k with a 10% interest rate just because the purchase price is cheaper? They'd be paying more over the course of the loan on the latter. Interest rates are obviously have relevance always.

@KaydenBenny @RonDeSantis The magic wand is time. Eventually home owners will need to sell, or their families liquidate, and then rates are irrelevant. Price becomes the rate limiting factor of a transaction.

You're correct in that there's certainly a sweet spot. You're also correct that sellers all overprice their homes, but this has always been the case. In real life, affordability is determined by interest rates, it's not practical to wave a magic wand and make sellers decide to price their homes lower. $50k less on a $300k home is much less impactful for buyers than a 2% lower interest rate. That's why rate buydowns are a thing.

Sellers are tethered to a reality that no longer exists. If the fed/treasury can artificially manipulate rates low enough, then sure, demand will increase, but you’ve now poured even more gasoline on the fire. The party will stop when rates can no longer be manipulated downward, and that’s when I will ultimately win this argument.

@brentbarbata @RonDeSantis Have not reached a buyable level. If you're car shopping and they offer you a 30% rate on your loan then drop it to 25%, would that make you buy? No. You need 10% or less for it to make sense.

@KaydenBenny @RonDeSantis In conclusion, rates have been dropping and so have home sales. Thanks for coming to my talk.

@RonDeSantis No. Home sales will pick up when INTEREST RATES drop.

@KaydenBenny @RonDeSantis Exhibit B

@KaydenBenny @RonDeSantis Exhibit A

@TrashMoney69 @RonDeSantis Pour more gasoline on the fire. Good idea. 🙄

@RonDeSantis No, they will pick up when RATES drop, not price.