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CDonners

@c_donners

Katılım Eylül 2012
1.9K Takip Edilen563 Takipçiler
The Spectator
The Spectator@spectator·
History suggests three endgames for Trump's intervention in Iran are plausible. First, a hasty deal on terms that aggrandize and empower Iran, creating an American equivalent to Britain’s Suez Crisis. Second, a protracted struggle which becomes structurally reminiscent of the Iraq War. Third, a dramatic escalation which achieves Iranian surrender quickly and cleanly. The bad news for Trump is that the outcome he seeks, number three, is the one without real precedent. ✍️ Marcus Solarz Hendriks Article | spectator.com/article/the-th…
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Robert E Kelly
Robert E Kelly@Robert_E_Kelly·
The 'best' part about this is that this outcome is worse than the JCPOA deal we had a decade ago A $200 billion war to achieve less than we had before. Congratulations, America, for electing a guy who repeated every US strategic mistake since Vietnam
Rosemary Kelanic@RKelanic

WSJ GIFT LINK: Trump might end the war without trying to forcibly open Hormuz. It stinks, but this is likely the least bad choice in a situation of all bad options. Ending the U.S. war is a necessary condition, but possibly not a sufficient one, for Iran reopening the strait. I get that it feels irresponsible for the U.S. to simply leave after creating a mess. It’s maddening, but might be for the best. Hear me out. Trump created a global public bad by attacking Iran and prompting the regime to close the strait. It was a colossal mistake that has caused pain in the U.S. and beyond. But cutting U.S. losses in a failed war makes more sense than continued fighting for a lost cause. And if the U.S. keeps fighting, no doubt Iran will continue to threaten the strait. If the U.S. quits the war, that would increase the political pressure on Iran to reopen the strait now that hostilities are over. Iran may try to extract “tolls” and if the Tehran Tollbooth persists after the war, it will be a lasting reminder of U.S. policy failure. But the tolls themselves aren’t that high — $2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels is just a $1/barrel surcharge, amounting to a 1% tax. Not great, but better than what oil prices are doing now. It would also incentivize Iran to keep traffic moving securely through Hormuz by monetizing safe transit. Yes I know it rewards bad behavior and morally it stinks for an odious regime to profit, but that’s the reality that Trump’s blunderous war has bestowed on us all. There’s a reason most of us don’t worry about Egypt (today) closing Suez or Panama closing its canal — the profit motive is powerful. Overall if Trump ends the war (which he should) with the Tollbooth intact, we are all worse off than we were on February 27, but better off than where we are now, and better than where we could be if the war stretches on for months or years. I know it’s not a satisfying ending but it’s pragmatic and we don’t live in the best of all possible worlds. There is one problem, though: Israel. Trump will almost certainly need to restrain Israel from continuing its war for Iran to reopen the strait. It should be a no-brainer: Israel is the junior partner and Trump should have the leverage to make them stop, given how much military aid the U.S. gives to Israel. But it’s not clear Trump will use it. @defpriorities wsj.com/world/middle-e…

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Israel Foreign Ministry
Israel has been the target of unprecedented brutal terrorism for decades, on a scale faced by no other country. A lack of effective deterrence - and incentives for kidnapping - helped fuel an escalation in terrorism that led to the October 7 atrocities, the deadliest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. Capital punishment already exists in Israeli law and has been used only twice. The new legislation expands it, with decisions left to the courts and safeguards such as the right to appeal and the possibility of a presidential pardon. The US and other leading democracies have similar laws.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇺🇸🇮🇷 How the U.S. dominated Iran's airspace: B-2, B-1, and B-52 bombers executed the operations that delivered overwhelming strikes against Iranian infrastructure and defenses. AH-64 Apache helicopters unleashed heavy firepower on Iranian positions. An F-35 conducted an air-to-air strike, shooting down an Iranian Yak-130 fighter jet. A-10 Warthogs delivered devastating close-air support attacks, hitting Iranian assets hard. Each aircraft played a distinct role in a layered, sequenced campaign with airpower designed to strip away Iran’s options one by one. Source: The Military Show
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 'No Kings' protester on Iran: "They have a good leader, the Ayatollah." He also hopes Iran blows up any U.S-related ships in the Strait of Hormuz. What on earth happened to U.S patriotism?

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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: President Trump is willing to end the Iran War even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, per WSJ. Details include: 1. Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to reopen Hormuz would push the conflict beyond his timeline 4-6 weeks 2. Trump believes the US should achieve its main goals of destroying Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles 3. Trump thinks he can wind down current hostilities while pressuring Iran diplomatically to resume the "free flow of trade" 4. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the Strait, US officials say US stock market futures are rising on the news.
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Rosemary Kelanic
Rosemary Kelanic@RKelanic·
WSJ GIFT LINK: Trump might end the war without trying to forcibly open Hormuz. It stinks, but this is likely the least bad choice in a situation of all bad options. Ending the U.S. war is a necessary condition, but possibly not a sufficient one, for Iran reopening the strait. I get that it feels irresponsible for the U.S. to simply leave after creating a mess. It’s maddening, but might be for the best. Hear me out. Trump created a global public bad by attacking Iran and prompting the regime to close the strait. It was a colossal mistake that has caused pain in the U.S. and beyond. But cutting U.S. losses in a failed war makes more sense than continued fighting for a lost cause. And if the U.S. keeps fighting, no doubt Iran will continue to threaten the strait. If the U.S. quits the war, that would increase the political pressure on Iran to reopen the strait now that hostilities are over. Iran may try to extract “tolls” and if the Tehran Tollbooth persists after the war, it will be a lasting reminder of U.S. policy failure. But the tolls themselves aren’t that high — $2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels is just a $1/barrel surcharge, amounting to a 1% tax. Not great, but better than what oil prices are doing now. It would also incentivize Iran to keep traffic moving securely through Hormuz by monetizing safe transit. Yes I know it rewards bad behavior and morally it stinks for an odious regime to profit, but that’s the reality that Trump’s blunderous war has bestowed on us all. There’s a reason most of us don’t worry about Egypt (today) closing Suez or Panama closing its canal — the profit motive is powerful. Overall if Trump ends the war (which he should) with the Tollbooth intact, we are all worse off than we were on February 27, but better off than where we are now, and better than where we could be if the war stretches on for months or years. I know it’s not a satisfying ending but it’s pragmatic and we don’t live in the best of all possible worlds. There is one problem, though: Israel. Trump will almost certainly need to restrain Israel from continuing its war for Iran to reopen the strait. It should be a no-brainer: Israel is the junior partner and Trump should have the leverage to make them stop, given how much military aid the U.S. gives to Israel. But it’s not clear Trump will use it. @defpriorities wsj.com/world/middle-e…
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Israel Foreign Ministry
We mourn the loss of Captain Noam Madmoni, Staff Sergeant Ben Cohen, and Staff Sergeant Maxsim Entis, soldiers in the Nahal Reconnaissanse Battalion (934th), Nahal Brigade, who fell in combat in Lebanon. Our hearts are with their families and loved ones. 🕯️ May their memories be a blessing.
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U.S. Central Command
Readout of CENTCOM Commander’s Visit to Israel TEL AVIV, Israel - U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins provided the following readout: During a visit to Israel, March 29-30, CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper met with Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. The two leaders discussed progress made during ongoing operations to eliminate Iran’s ability to project power in meaningful ways outside its borders. They also reaffirmed the strength of the U.S.-Israel defense partnership and emphasized the importance of continued coordination. Prior to departing the region, Cooper visited with U.S. troops deployed to multiple locations in support of Operation Epic Fury. He recognized more than 40 service members with medals for their exceptional performance during the first weeks of the operation.
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The Other Side (Australian Vodcast)
Mossad are supposed to be “brilliant” at PR and psy ops. I guess this proves all the antisemitic conspiracy theories about that, wrong. What a revolting, immoral, indefensible and inhuman display of indecency. And on a superficial “PR” level - what idiocy and shooting yourself in the foot this vile performance of celebrating death penalty laws is. No doubt many Israelis and Jews worldwide are mortified by this. As are those of us non-Jews who are sympathetic to Israel. Ben-Gvir is disgusting. No moral human celebrates capital punishment. It may be a necessary and sad thing sometimes. But it is NEVER to be celebrated like an imbecilic child. APPALLING.
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Not Jerome Powell
Not Jerome Powell@alifarhat79·
Lmaooooo, I’m crying
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Shaiel Ben-Ephraim
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim@academic_la·
The US is on the verge of stopping the war with Iran without any achievements. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This is because the political bleeding and the price of oil are too much for Trump to continue to withstand. What this means: 1) Trump and his aides concluded that forcing the strait open would take longer than his 4–6 week timeline, so the plan is to wind down hostilities after degrading Iran's navy and missile capabilities. 2) The plan is then to push diplomatically for free passage and if that fails, lean on European and Gulf allies to lead the reopening effort. 3) Iran would then likely demand that Israel stop bombing before they agree to open. That shouldn't be a massive problem, since Israel is running out of targets there anyway. 4) Iran received a lot of money from oil and a lot of new weapons and technology. They will use that to rebuild their regional power. 5) It appears very likely that Iran is going to pursue a nuclear weapons seriously for the first time, instead of pursuing the goal of being a threshold state. 6) The United States will lose a lot of its influence in the Gulf and the Middle East due to this disaster. That will pave the path to Chinese domination in the region. The US appears ready to conceded a historic defeat in the Gulf. American power will never be the same.
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Jo Kaur
Jo Kaur@SikhFeminist·
@academic_la Why do you think the eventual departure of Americans won't pave the way for Israeli power in the region?
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CDonners
CDonners@c_donners·
@academic_la @gregjamesbarton The US have no choice...the economic consequences are so enormous now that they must concede and get out of this war otherwise we are headed for economic catastrophe.
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