cameron fen

Small change, same goal. We’re expanding into politics, economics, finance, and crypto, focused on what actually matters. Stick around for what’s next 👇 donotinvestwithme.substack.com

@peruvian_bull This is what higher rates do, they expose structures built for a zero-rate world.

things are getting worse in private credit: Blue Owl Capital permanently shut off redemptions from one of its retail funds in February. they sold $1.4 billion in loans to cover the exits and told remaining investors they'd get their money back whenever Blue Owl felt like returning it. shares dropped 60% from their highs. their co-CEO went on an earnings call and said they didn't have "red flags" or even "yellow flags." investors yanked 15% of net assets from one of their tech funds the next week. Blackstone's BCRED, the largest private credit fund on the planet at $82 billion, saw a record 7.9% of shares redeemed in Q1 2026: roughly $3.8 billion walking out the door. that blew past their 5% quarterly cap. Blackstone and 25 senior execs had to inject $400 million of their own money just to keep the gates open. Stone Ridge, which holds $2.4 billion in fintech consumer loans from Affirm, LendingClub, Upstart, Block, and Stripe, told investors last week it could only pay out 11% of what they asked to withdraw. Cliffwater is paying roughly half of redemption requests on its corporate lending fund. the dominoes are falling.

@shanaka86 The US Treasury’s own books show we’re $41T underwater, and that’s before Social Security & Medicare. Then add a $200B+ Iran war, Hormuz oil spike, rising rates… you see the loop? The math is brutal.

BREAKING. The United States Treasury’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025 report $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities. That is a negative net position of $41.72 trillion. And that number excludes Social Security and Medicare, which CBO projects add another $50 to $70 trillion in unfunded obligations over 30 years. Steve Hanke and David Walker wrote in Fortune on March 23 that these numbers constitute insolvency under any standard accounting framework. The Treasury has not used that word. No sovereign government that issues its own reserve currency calls itself insolvent. But the numbers are the Treasury’s own. They are published on Treasury.gov. They are audited. And they show a government whose liabilities exceed its assets by a ratio of nearly 8 to 1. Now layer the war on top. Annual interest on the national debt reached $1.22 trillion in fiscal year 2025. That is more than the defence budget. More than Medicare. The war supplemental request for the Iran conflict exceeds $200 billion. The Federal Reserve cannot cut rates because Hormuz-driven energy inflation has pushed PCE to 2.7 percent and rising. Every basis point the Fed holds is a basis point that compounds against $39 trillion in gross debt. The war that was supposed to last weeks is now costing hundreds of billions while the borrowing cost of financing it rises with every barrel of oil that does not transit the strait. The arithmetic is circular and accelerating. The war spikes energy prices. Energy prices spike inflation. Inflation prevents rate cuts. Higher rates increase the cost of servicing $39 trillion in debt. Higher debt service costs expand the deficit. The expanded deficit requires more borrowing. The borrowing occurs at higher rates because the war is still running. The circle has no exit as long as the strait is closed. Japan is watching from the other side of the carry trade. Life insurers hold $5 trillion in foreign assets, heavily weighted toward US Treasuries. The BOJ is tightening. The 10-year JGB hit 2.278 percent. If Japanese institutions begin repatriating, the largest marginal buyer of American debt becomes a seller at the exact moment the US needs to borrow $200 billion more for the war. The yuan is entering the gap. Every tanker that pays $2 million in yuan at the IRGC toll booth is a transaction that does not require dollar settlement. Every bilateral deal between Russia and China in rubles and yuan is a trade flow that does not pass through SWIFT. Intra-BRICS trade reached $500 billion in 2025 with over half settled in local currencies. The dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen from 72 percent in 2000 to 56.9 percent. The Hormuz toll booth is not just blocking molecules. It is demonstrating in real time that global energy can settle without the dollar. And the demonstration occurs while the dollar’s issuer publishes financial statements showing $41.72 trillion in net liabilities. The Treasury is not insolvent. A sovereign that prints its own reserve currency can always meet its obligations. But the mechanism for meeting those obligations, borrowing at ever-higher rates, printing when borrowing becomes untenable, inflating when printing becomes visible, has a cost. That cost is measured in purchasing power, in credibility, and in the willingness of foreign holders to continue financing a government whose own statements show liabilities eight times its assets while fighting a war it cannot afford to win or afford to lose. The molecules are trapped behind the strait. The fiscal credibility is trapped behind the numbers. And the numbers are the Treasury’s own. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@ekwufinance Think $200 oil is wild? Not when a third of Middle East exports vanish and storage tanks are full. The world’s just realizing this isn’t going back to “normal” fast.

200 USD oil is no longer a crazy idea. - 7-10 mbpd of Middle East exports are gone - Tight supply&limited storage are putting upward pressure on prices - Even if the conflict ends, recovery will be slow The world is slowly waking up to a new reality: higher oil prices for longer

@APompliano This is the moment private credit either proves itself… or exposes the cracks. Illiquid loans can’t bend for everyone at once, and investors are about to find out.

Private credit is hitting its first real redemption stress test. Here’s the situation in plain English: After 2008, banks pulled back from lending due to tighter regulation. Private funds stepped in and filled the gap. They offered flexible loans with floating rates and higher yields than public markets. In a low-rate world, investors chased returns and diversification. The result was massive growth. Assets went from about $900 billion in 2019 to more than $2 trillion. Then rates spiked after the pandemic. Borrowers started feeling the pressure. Defaults began creeping higher, especially in software and tech where AI is disrupting business models. At the same time, underwriting standards had loosened during the boom years. Now yields are compressing as rates ease, and investors are starting to question valuations that are not marked in real time. A few high-profile blowups flipped sentiment quickly. Now redemption requests are rising across semi-liquid private credit funds. These include non-traded BDCs and interval funds that promised some liquidity, but not full liquidity. Here is the problem though. These funds own illiquid loans. You cannot sell them quickly without taking a big discount. So when too many investors want their money back at once, managers have limited options. They can hold more cash, tap credit lines, or sell assets at lower prices. All of those hurt performance and net asset value for the investors who stay. So what do they do? They gate redemptions. Most of these funds cap withdrawals at around 5 percent of NAV per quarter. When redemption requests jump to 9 to 11 percent or higher, which we are now seeing at firms like BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl, investors do not get all their money back. They get a prorated amount or sometimes a return of capital. In extreme cases, funds can pause redemptions entirely or support the fund with their own balance sheet. This is not a 2008-style crisis. But it is a real stress test of the model. The core issue has always been the same. You are offering periodic liquidity on top of fundamentally illiquid assets. Now we find out whether that tradeoff was worth it.

@TurboUncloaked @SolidEvidence People still think “chip shortage” means electronics only. Meanwhile it quietly affects cars, hospitals, energy systems... basically modern life.

@cameronfen1 @SolidEvidence The looming semi-conductor shortages are going to hit very hard,supply chains were messed up for the better part of 2 years during covid. People don't realize how many products are affected

I hope no one needs an MRI this year. The world's largest producer of liquified helium is in Qatar and is shut off. We just got a notice that our supply for the year will be at least cut in half. No one could have predicted this (unless they thought about it).

@BlackTomThePyr8 @SolidEvidence It’s wild, right? So many resources we treat like toys... helium, rare earths, even water in some places quietly power civilization. Makes you rethink what “waste” really means.

@cameronfen1 @SolidEvidence Just imagine: every time we emptied a party balloon into our lungs to speak in a squeaky voice for a while, we were pissing away a resource critical to the survival of our species. Back off to space you go, helium! Wonder how many other resources like that there are out there...

@mitchellvii Strength may have brought them to the table but staying at the table usually requires diplomacy, not pressure alone.

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 NO NUCLEAR IRAN: President Trump laid it out straight from the podium! Iran's finally backed down. No more nuclear weapon ambitions for them. Trump: "They've AGREED they will not have a nuclear weapon... I think there's a very good chance we end up with a deal!" We showed real strength - talks only started when they knew we meant business. Peace through power is working. This changes everything in the Middle East and could usher in a new era of peace in the region. Thoughts? ⬇️

@jackprandelli The interesting part isn’t winners vs losers, it’s exposure. China depends heavily on Middle East crude flows, while U.S. majors benefit from diversified supply and domestic production. When chokepoints like Hormuz tighten, geography suddenly becomes strategy.

China's biggest oil company was already bleeding Then Iran handed Exxon everything. Sinopec latest financial data Revenue: RMB 2.78 trillion Net profit: RMB 32.48B down 33.6% Brent averaged $69/barrel China refined demand down 4.1% Chemical margins crushed by overcapacity Then March 2026 happened: Hormuz closed 37.7% of China's crude gone. Ras Laffan offline 3-5 years Gulf Medium/Heavy Sour offline exactly what Chinese refineries need Russia maxed out can't fill the gap US Light Sweet wrong grade for Chinese refineries Reserves: 200 days.... Then crisis. Meanwhile Exxon & Chevron got 3 accidental gifts: 1️⃣ Venezuela unlocked → World's largest proven reserves (303B barrels) → Heavy crude — perfect replacement for Gulf barrels → US firms first in line 2️⃣ Iran destroyed Qatar's LNG for them → 20% of global LNG offline 3-5 years → US is the only supplier with capacity to absorb the gap → New US LNG terminals coming online 2026-2027 3️⃣Almost Zero Hormuz exposure → Chevron: pure US upstream → Exxon: diversified, expanding → Both printing money at $100+ oil The contrast is brutal: 🇨🇳 Sinopec 2026: Primary supply is gone No alternatives at scale Refineries configured for crude that no longer arrives Reserves depleting daily 🇺🇸 Exxon & Chevron 2026: Venezuela secured ✅ LNG dominance handed to them ✅ Elevated prices boosting every margin ✅ This wasn't just a war. It was a corporate restructuring of the global energy industry. And the US majors ended up on the right side of every single move. 🛢️💰 I break down who's winning and losing in my latest article here: open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

@ekwufinance Think about this... a new copper mine takes like 18 years to start producing. A new data center? Just 18–23 months. So yeah, data centers are gobbling up copper way faster than we can mine it. Over the long term, copper’s looking like a pretty solid play.

Data centers are increasing copper demand in a market already in deficit. Time to bring a new copper mine online vs a new data center: - Copper mine: ~18 years - Data center: 18-23 months Data centers are projected to add 3 mt of copper demand by 2040. That means we need to add 3 of the top 1 producing copper mines over the next 14 years, while bringing new mines online takes 18 years, and the ones we are finding are far smaller. Ignore the short-term volatility, over the long term, copper remains a solid pick.

@shanaka86 Diplomacy in words. War in action. The pause is only in the tweets.

Trump: “very good and productive conversations.” Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tehran: the explosions were “unprecedented.” Trump: “I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants.” The IDF: “we have begun a wide-scale wave of strikes on infrastructure targets in Tehran.” Trump: “Iran wants to finalise the deal.” Iran’s Defence Council: “all communication lines in the Persian Gulf will be mined.” Trump: “the conversations will continue throughout the week.” Israeli strikes continued in Khorramabad, Tabriz, Isfahan, Karaj, Ahvaz, and Bandar Abbas while the post was being shared. The power plants are paused. Everything else is accelerating. The pause is a category, not a ceasefire. And the category is narrower than the war. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@ekwufinance Australia outsourced energy security. Now it’s discovering supply chains have loyalties.

Australia is one of the biggest losers in this energy crisis - 90% of its fuel imports are coming from Asia - ~60% of Asia’s oil imports come from the Middle East How long until Asia imposes an export ban on fuel imports as their own countries are entering a deep crisis?

@MalcolmNance This isn’t a threat. It’s a crash. Power grids, desalination, shipping lanes... everything that keeps the Gulf alive will take the hit.

THREATS WONT WORK: If Trump hits Iranian power plants, which is clearly a suggestion by Netanyahu, say goodbye to Gulf States power & water desalination plants. In 48 hours the most likely outcomes are: 1) The SOH will likely see mines appear/detected/being planted… deliberately & obviously. 2) The next ship without an IRGC EzPass will get set aflame by small boats 3) Jebel Ali has power plant & desalinization complex supporting Dubai will be hit massively by drones. This is no off ramp, it’s Trump crashing the car into the divider … because it will “look cool.”

@DrJStrategy Even a demonstration can backfire. Escalation, miscalculation, and systemic shocks are as real as the intended signal.

For the record. Trump’s Iran Gambit and the New Great Game Donald Trump’s Iran war is not really about Iran. It is a live‑fire demonstration for a larger audience: China, Europe and every state that still depends on U.S.‑policed sea lanes and dollar finance. Trump’s Art of the Deal meets Kipling’s Kim: transactional brinkmanship fused with a ruthless sense of the Great Game. His coercive sequencing with Tehran – pressure, “winding down”, peace feelers, a 48‑hour ultimatum on Hormuz, threats to “obliterate” power plants – is meant to show that the U.S. can still dominate escalation ladders in a critical energy theatre. Iran’s new 4,000km missile, capable of reaching European capitals, only vindicates his argument that this is not a local irritant but a system‑level threat. Europe’s instinct to respond with process and paper echoes Chamberlain more than Churchill. The real inflection point is what happens if Iran can no longer serve as a staging ground or energy back door for China. If crude again clears overwhelmingly in dollars, and Washington effectively controls the main flows out of the Gulf. The geometry between the U.S. and China changes dramatically. Beijing would face a world where its industrial lifeblood remains hostage not to “multipolarity” but to American tolerance. Gulf monarchies are already betting on this outcome, distancing from Tehran while recommitting long‑horizon capital to the U.S. That is not sentiment; it is positioning for a system in which American security guarantees and dollar energy are, once more, the only game that really counts. If President Trump holds his nerve, IMHO he will, Iran is boxed in rather than appeased, the peace dividend will be akin to the fall of the USSR. State sponsored terrorism take a significant hit, cheaper and more predictable energy, risk premia declines, and a strategic map in which China must live inside an order Trump has just proved Washington can still enforce. Yes, Iran is a sideshow. And yes, The Great Game evolves.

@jackprandelli Energy profits follow scarcity. If supply stays constrained, margins expand fast.

Oil is coming back This chart shows exactly what happens next to Big Oil profits 2020-2025 peak earnings tell the story: 🇺🇸 ExxonMobil: $399B revenue double digit margins 🇬🇧 Shell: $386B peak strong profitability 🇫🇷 TotalEnergies: $263B consistent margin expansion 🇺🇸 Chevron: $236B same pattern 🇳🇴 Equinor / 🇮🇹 Eni smaller scale, massive operating leverage Every single peak aligned with one thing: Tight oil markets, High prices and Constrained supply. Sound familiar? ✅ Oil above $100 ✅ Hormuz effectively dead ✅ 39 energy sites struck across 9 countries ✅ Qatar LNG offline 3-5 years ✅ Supply constraints building daily We are not going back to 2025 earnings. We are moving toward 2022 style profitability. But not all winners are equal: 🔴 Middle East exposed players infrastructure risk 🟢 US pure-play producers price beneficiaries with zero Hormuz exposure 🟢 LNG exporters outside the Gulf printing money Very different outcomes. ♟️ The margins are about to expand again. The question is whose 📈

@philippilk Food systems are fragile... energy shocks and fertiliser disruptions ripple faster than most wars.

Fertiliser analysts are now saying the world faces a monumental food crisis. The US will be hit hard too. People elsewhere will starve. Trump’s war appears to be about to quite literally destroy the world. Insane. 🌽

@anders_aslund History usually judges wars less by intentions and more by outcomes.

Trump's war on Iran appears the greatest bluder in US foreign policy after World War II: 1. No clear aim: regime change, nukes or disarming Iran? 2. No US agency: Just following Israel. 3. No strategy. 4. Ignoring intelligence. 5. No understanding that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz or bomb Gulf states with US bases. 6. No understanding of the enormous impact of the global economy of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. 7. No consultation with any allies but Israel. 8. Alienating all prior allies with unjustified insults. Only a uniquely dumb & ruthless US president could cause so much damage.

@Microinteracti1 Ultimatums rarely end wars, they remove off-ramps. Now both sides are trapped by their own words.

Iran just told Trump to go ahead and pull the trigger. Thirty-three hours left on the clock, and Tehran didn’t blink. It escalated. Trump threatened to obliterate Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t open for business within 48 hours. A reasonable person might have expected some back-channel signal, a quiet diplomatic murmur, maybe a phone call through Oman. Instead, Iran’s senior military command walked up to the microphone and announced that its entire strategic posture has shifted. Not defensive. Offensive. The country has enough reserves to last a year. The Strait is closing completely. Every vital piece of infrastructure in the Middle East, energy, water desalination, IT, is now a declared target. This is not a country signalling that it wants a way out. This is a country that has decided the cost of backing down exceeds the cost of the wall it’s about to hit. Which puts Trump in the kind of position he has never actually been in before: a deadline he set, in public, that the other side just laughed at. He can obliterate the power plants. In which case Iran closes the Strait, hits the desalination plants that keep Saudi Arabia and the UAE alive, and about a fifth of the world’s oil supply disappears overnight. Markets open Monday to scenes that make 2008 look like a minor correction. Or he doesn’t. In which case every adversary on earth just watched the President of the United States issue an ultimatum and absorb a public humiliation in real time. There is no clean exit here. There is no art to this deal. Thirty-three hours. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

A basic cooking fuel is turning into a strategic commodity. Iran’s Hormuz blockade has disrupted LPG flows, sending prices soaring and leaving millions struggling to cook daily meals. Energy geopolitics is now hitting the kitchen table. 🍳 Read more: donotinvestwithme.substack.com/p/the-emerging…

@mitchellvii No boots on the ground, but pressure is relentless. Two deployments, smart positioning, total denial of resurgence. That’s how long-term dominance is enforced.

THEY WILL NEVER REBUILD! - Trump just laid it out crystal clear on CNBC: we could pull out of Iran ops right now and leave their military crippled for a decade - but that's not good enough. President Trump: "If we left right now, it would take them at least 10 years to rebuild, but rebuild they will." "If we stay longer, they’ll never rebuild." Pentagon's surging another 2,500 Marines to the region - second big deployment this week - to keep the pressure on and finish the job. No boots on Iranian soil, but smart positioning crushes any chance of resurgence. This is Trump strength in action: total dominance so the mullahs never rise again. Stay the course - victory means permanent peace through overwhelming power.