@Fiat_iceberg Hard to tell with “housing costs” helping to pull it down the last few reports. Trading Economics has the headline estimate going from 1.8 to 2.5, could be off by .1 to.2. So maybe 2.3 to 2.7 range best guess
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Canuck Rob
6K posts
Canuck Rob
@canuck_rob
Always curious and annoyed 99 percent of photos are stock and a close resemblance, I do not post photos of family, friends or residence
Katılım Mayıs 2019
55 Takip Edilen31 Takipçiler
US CPI went from 2.4% to 3.3% from February to March due in large part to rising energy prices
What's your guess on what it will look like for Canadian March CPI?
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@BenRabidoux I’m still bearish overall sentiment, investor liquidity, and employment. Without these small moves in either direction really aren’t that exciting
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Fewer than 900 single-family home completions across Ontario in February. Lowest since at least 1990
Resale inventory is TIGHTENING across Ontario
Yes, recession risk...high gas prices. But supply is being throttled and y'all are still hyper-bearish
Just watch the comments
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@HowardMarksBook Hello: Mr Marks. I’ve always enjoyed your “memo” but this latest version that was apparently assisted by “AI”made it very hard to listen to. The voice seemed to fast, with no emphasis on words. Your normal presentation is more enjoyable and pleasant to listen to
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It's also who Prime Minister Carney really is
He never served in Parliament
It means nothing to him
Democracy doesn't mean much either
He sends his people out to buy other party's MPs with shitty little bribes
It's just a transaction to him
We're all just a transaction
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Conservatives Members Of Parliament Crossing The Floor To Become Liberals: Those MPs Were BOUGHT
I don't think we can end Floor Crossings because it's just too hard, it's almost a Constitutional change
But look at WHY people elected to represent one party switch parties
2/
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@REWoman For most I know it has little to do with politics. They want 3 things. 1. Control on spending 2. Shovels in the ground- not talking 3. Getting crime under control & immigration back to previous- high skill level recruitment
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Why aren’t Canadians outraged at everything going on. I don’t get it. Bunch of sheep
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Every small town has a guy who:
- Drives an old pickup
- Wears Walmart jeans and a baseball cap
- Lives in an average middle-class home
- Brings little attention to himself
And who quietly owns half the town.
If you can ever get them to talk to you, listen carefully.
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@AaronHectorCFP Fun experience if you pay them, but they say you didn’t. Happened years ago, had to photocopy both sides of the processed cheque, with registration form and fax it to trust compliance. Tells you it was long ago cheques and a fax😂😂😂
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Newer self-employed business operators may not know it, but their GST should be paid in advance via tax instalments when the GST amount owing is expected to exceed $3,000. Not doing so exposes you to instalment interest.
This can be an unexpected tax surprise that catches people off-guard in the first couple of years of operations.
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@kbessey @SteveSaretsky Valid point, I know some people that have done ( the not selling) for various reasons. Like primary residence as my real estate, even that can be work at times.
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One obvious answer is diversification.
If you want to own your business, stocks, real estate, cash, gold, you own some of all of it.
Generally speaking, for the average person the equity in your primary residence is enough real estate ownership—and no tenant regulations in that case.
Many just don’t want to sell and they plan to move out. They become a landlord by circumstance, not on purpose.
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Cities are getting more creative to circumvent rental laws.
In BC cities have limited power to impact a tenancy or the Residential Tenancy Act.
A new bylaw in New Westminster requires a “cool room” for units in apartment buildings.
Failing to comply can result in denial of your business license and potential fines against the property.
City of Vancouver tried to pass a bylaw restricting a landlords ability to deny an application with pets—which thankfully has no teeth.
Keep an eye out as frustrated councillors try to extend their power.
Real Estate Lawyer@SinaiLawFirm
How bad are Santa Monica's housing laws? Here is a recent example: Last November, city council passed a law requiring all rentals not under rent control to be registered with the city (and pay a fee). SMMC 4.25. The new law covers SFHs, condos, and new apartments. The law took effect in 1/1/2026. It's now April and owners can't register the units because the city has not set up the registry yet. No forms to fill. No registry list. We don't even know how much registration costs. There's no online page to register or mailing address. The problem: failure to comply with the new law means tenants have an affirmative defense to an eviction! To recap: 1. On 11/18/25 city council passes registration law. 2. The law requires registration + paying a fee + service of the registration on the tenant. 3. Failure to comply with the law's 3 requirement is an affirmative defense to an eviction. 4. Law went into effect 1/1/2026. 5. As of today's date, the website (shown below) for the city attorney's office still has a placeholder. There's no official form, no way to apply, no amount of fees to pay, and no real way to comply with the law. We are 4 months into the new year! How is that impacting eviction? Great question, I know a thing or two about that. Tenants are already pleading the affirmative defense in court. At least one judge allowed the defense to be presented in trial (no ruling though) because the law took effect this year. How are landlords supposed to evict tenants if they have an absolute defense to a law that cannot be complied with? I think it would be possible to subpoena city records from the city attorney's office and subpoena the actual city attorney to trial to testify. The other issue is liability for the city. If landlords cannot evict based on a law that cannot be enforced, I think that subjects the city to a lawsuit. I contacted the city attorney's office and I am still waiting for an answer.
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@IceCapGlobal Hey Boomer. Looks like it could be some sizeable losses, but I don’t think it’s systemic. That markets about 2 trillion, most stuff won’t go to zero, GFC derivatives were something like 62 trillion. Probably tighten credit, get some losses and provisioning. Just my opinion
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Update: Private Credit
This trend continues to strengthen. Currently, it has not cracked the system. Understanding the POTENTIAL knock-on effects will provide significant opportunities.
Financial Times@FT
Jamie Dimon warns private credit losses will be larger than feared ft.trib.al/lzBFTyn
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@kbessey @SteveSaretsky Agreed, but if you’re not using the leverage, you can grow your wealth with less personal involvement and sometimes drama using the stock market. As a business person I get building something, I just wouldn’t choose landlording or restaurants
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people have always wanted to be landlords. its been like that forever.
ebbs and flows, but always existing.
every property cashflows if you don't have a mortgage on it. one of the reasons properties are so expensive is because people borrow as much as they can to purchase a property rather than buying as much as they can with their own money.
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@IceCapGlobal @CBCNews They won’t, they already got there pound of flesh from Rich😂
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@kbessey @SteveSaretsky I honestly don’t understand how anyone wants to be a landlord anymore. Not cash flowing at current prices and endless headaches and regulation changes.
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I would assume by complaints and a follow up investigation.
Then if you don’t comply with whatever the city wants you to do, they fine you or don’t renew your business license.
So the city has a stick to swing, but the tenant may not have recourse.
At least the RTB issues an order (go pay someone to get this done and withhold from your rent).
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@Stevest48366771 @ronmortgageguy It’s hard to find an 1100 sq foot detached now. If you want a smaller home you have to buy property and then build it, none in developments, and building yourself is a huge pain
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@ronmortgageguy I grew up in a 3 bedroom, 1100 sqft back-split semi with 5 people living it. We need to make those homes again.
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Let's Just Admit It: All Levels Of Government Have Worked To Destroy The Type Of Housing Most People Actually Want
For the majority of Canadian they're dream of Homeownership is still a Single Family Home
But we don't build many anymore
And it's clearly intentional
2/
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@AaronHectorCFP Lots of great music, but a lot of the classic music from the 60s, 70s,80s might be an uncomfortable situation if they actually listen to the words and start asking questions. Glad I don’t have young kids anymore “humming and hawing” trying to think of how to explain something
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Quick personal update I’m really excited about - so not finance related.
We recently got a record player at home, and as a family we’ve been enjoying the more deliberate listening that this demands of you. It’s really a very different way of experiencing music compared to randomized lists on Spotify/wherever.
We’ve decided that each Saturday one of us (me/wife/daughters) gets a turn. We’ll go to the record store and that person will get to choose a record. Ideally, they’ll choose something they think everyone will enjoy. Then we go home, sit down, and spend an hour together listening to the music. We’ll chat/read/games/etc as well during this time.
The rule is to be open minded about the music selections of others.
We thought this would sort of bring back some of the fun that we got to experience when we were younger going to blockbuster to walk down the isles and finally pick your movie.
Mostly though, a bit more family time here is the real win!
Any “must have” vinyls for family listening? Context: musically open-minded adults, daughters=preteen girls #swifites
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@tobi Hey Tobi. The thing I find the most amazing and frustrating is the “absolute degree of certainty” that people speak with. Most things are degrees of probability that can shift dramatically. It’s probably why most experts are wrong frequently and have to spin a narrative
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The word `expert` in media has come to mean pundit with davos-liberal talking points
F. A. Hayek Quotes@FAHayekSays
“Nothing is more securely lodged than the ignorance of the experts.” — Friedrich Hayek
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@ronmortgageguy It brings me back to the saying when we were kids “ sticks and stones will break your bones but names will never hurt you”. We’ve come to the belief in recent years that names hurt, and are being reminded of the fact that it’s the sticks and stones you have to look out for🫣🫣
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I'm 68 Years Old If You Had Told Me 15 Years Ago The President Of The United States Would Write This.......
Seriously, no BS, no partisan stuff, just cast your mind back 15 years: somebody tells you a President would write this?
I guarantee NO ONE would believe it
Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial@TruthTrumpPost
PRESIDENT TRUMP: 🇺🇸 Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.
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@AlexPangMtg @BenRabidoux Wouldn’t be surprised if the banks actually talked to the regulator and said this is starting to worry us. How about you release something saying you warned us, then we can say we can’t do it anymore. Regulator plays the bad guy, sounds like a conspiracy but I wouldn’t be shocked
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@BenRabidoux OSFI "warned" the banks about blanket appraisals, but let's get real. They'll continue to do it until they receive a stiff penalty ala TD's $1 Billion fine down south 🤷
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OSFI finally tightening up on bullshit blanket appraisals and now we get the sob stories of the buyers who have to deal with actual appraisals.
This is a market cycle. People will lose money.
Let the market clear
CTV News@CTVNews
‘This is very dangerous’: Sharp drop in condo prices leave pre-construction buyers struggling to pay developers ctvnews.ca/business/real-…
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@ronmortgageguy Bizarre gapping in rates in both directions, would be nice to get some stability back
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Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Up! BIGLY It's The War In The Middle East
If the War keeps going Rates go higher, if it stops the Rates drop
Its that simple
But DON'T PANIC
Don't start breaking mortgages & paying penalties
Don't lock in Variable at high rates
Wait & watch
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@AaronHectorCFP @MarkMcGrathCFP I’m suggesting that in person, with all the information you could do a better job, than with a broad assumption on details on x.😜
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@canuck_rob @MarkMcGrathCFP Are you suggesting that I couldn’t explain something in detail on X?
The arguing never stops with this guy. Unreal. 😂
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Your tax instalment schedule under the no-calc option indicates payments of $2,500 (Mar), $2,500 (Jun), $7,500 (Sep) and $7,500 (Dec).
$20k total.
Instead, you could pay $5,000 per quarter under the Prior-Year method.
Or you could create your own single-pay amount. The amount here depends on when you make the payment.... pay early enough in the year and your required single pay will be much less than the total of your other payment schedule.
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