Patrick D

Houthis just officially declared entry into the conflict backing Iran. They don't have a navy. They don't need one. A few anti-ship missiles and drone strikes are all it takes to wipe out insurance coverage for Red Sea transit. Tanker rates, freight insurance, and European energy costs are all immediately in play. This is getting worse every day.

@acemoney21 @WarrenPies I’m curious what about the 2Y action today leads you to think 2Y down. I agree if this lasts long enough we go from rates up to rates down but the 2Y action today flagged an inflation concern to me.

I’ll tweet this again because I’m getting a few DMs about my view moving fwd You guys don’t understand. We are officially in next phase of this selloff. We’re done pricing the SoH disruption as an inflationary mess. We are now starting to price it as a recessionary mess. That

Been Heading West south west for a few weeks. Either Iran is resolved favorably or we turns North fairly quickly. Perhaps a crazy Ivan Southwest first. Favorable resolution and eastward we go.

Right, it’s simply breathtaking

40% YTD... and it isn't even April yet. $XLE didn't come to play.

Hugely consequential decision allowing Morgan Stanley to transfer $85 billion of broker-dealer assets to its insured bank. Precedent setting and reminiscent of similar moves in 2007-08. This is the first time I can recall the Fed ever approving a regulatory action by 4-3 vote.

Name a massive escalation with a certain outcome. I'll wait...

Four weeks? S&P 500 would be < 6k…oil $150 easy

This far into the war - and with no obvious end in sight - we've learned a few things: 1. The US and Iran are engaged in diplomatic shaping operations, not negotiations. Each side presents a maximalist position, and both insist the other is desperate. It would be great if Iran agreed to the current US terms - on nukes, missiles, proxies, etc. - but it won't. The current posturing could lead to real negotiations, but that will probably require more time - and fighting. 2. Watch the troops, not the talks. The diplomacy buys time for thousands of US ground forces to assemble in the region. There is a lot of talk about taking Kharg Island. Maybe, but doing so would not automatically solve the key U.S. problem, which is the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Other operations - along the Iranian coast or otherwise - may do more to open the Strait, and therefore be more likely. 3. Significant escalation potential here remains. Gulf Arab states could start shooting into Iran. The Houthis could enter the fight and block the Bab el-Mandeb. Israel could proceed with a ground invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon. Shia militias in Iraq could become more militarily active. The US and Iran could increase strikes on regional power and energy infrastructure. All of that is wholly apart from the potential engagement of US ground forces. 4. The White House continues to pare back its objectives. Out with regime change, the right to choose Iran's supreme leader, and unconditional surrender. Now Tehran must commit never to develop a nuclear weapon. But Iranian leaders made that commitment over and over before the war started. The aim should be to change Iranian capability - degrading its drones, missile, navy, nuclear, and defense industrial base - rather than a grand attempt to alter Iranian will. 5. Declaring victory and moving on is no longer an option. CENTCOM will likely complete most of its target set in another week or two. But that still leaves a closed Strait, which must open via agreement or force. The President's ability to spin situations as success will face limits here; everyone will know if the Strait remains closed, the price of oil still high, and the drag on the world economy still significant. 6. Once the Strait is reopened, the US will want to guarantee its security with an international coalition escorting ships and conducting patrols. For that we need allies and partners. The current approach of insulting and threatening them is not particularly productive. Leading them in a common effort would be a better approach. 7. After the shooting stops, we may see eerie parallels to 1990s Iraq. In 1991, the U.S. liberated Kuwait but was left with a weakened, hostile, and deeply repressive Iraqi regime still in place. Containing it required harsh sanctions and the long-term engagement of U.S. forces over years. In 2026, this war may well leave a weakened, hostile, and deeply repressive Iranian regime still in place. Containing it may require harsh sanctions and the long-term engagement of U.S. forces over years. War's unpredictable, so anything is possible. But we may be seeing a rough replay of an old movie.

🇺🇸: “Open Hormuz immediately.” 🇮🇷: “No.” 🇺🇸: “You have 48 hours or else.” 🇮🇷: “Yeah, it’s still ‘No’.” 🇺🇸: “Ok, 5 day deadline extension.” 🇮🇷: “No thanks. And, No.” 🇺🇸: “Ok, final 10 day deadline extension.” 🇮🇷: “Cool, but No.”

@agnostoxxx Thanks shrub Incidentally, will be in your neck of the woods next week. My two daughters are playing at a rugby tournament down on your coast. Will ping you separately…

Smart military types I’ve talked to are all confident that the US can dominate Iran. After they pound their chests I ask “Yes, but how long will that take? How does this not turn into Afghanistan?”…that’s when they pause and respond “I don’t know”…and therein lies the rub. #OOTT #IranWar

This analogy is so good.

A Picture Worth a Thousand Words: Saudi Crude Exports from Western Ports Continue to Rise open.substack.com/pub/anasalhajj…

TRUMP: I AM PAUSING PERIOD OF ENERGY PLANT DESTRUCTION BY 10 DAYS TO MONDAY, APRIL 6, 2026, AT 8 P.M., EASTERN TIME

From a political perspective it is really amazing that the administration went into this year fretting about affordability issues because of the midterms, and then made one of the few foreign policy decisions that simultaneously drives up gas prices and mortgages rates

“UBS said the fund's liquid assets were ​insufficient to meet redemption requests. The move by UBS is the latest ​in a string of asset managers placing caps ​on ⁠funds, most of them private credit funds in the United States, amid a surge in redemption requests.” 👇🏼 reuters.com/business/finan…

Trump pausing the "period of energy plant destruction" in Iran by 10 days is NOT a TACO, but more of a NACHO: Not Actually Changing Hormuz Opening

Told @FT that I don’t think the Iranians hiding some decisive capabilities. The Diego Garcia strike was surprising, but it was more of a political signal than anything else. Technologically, if you can send a 1.5-ton warhead 2000 kilometres, you can extend the range by reducing the payload - it’s not a breakthrough. @charles_clover ft.com/content/fe4dcb…

@NoelSmith I do.