capisce capital

313 posts

capisce capital

capisce capital

@capiscecapital

Individual investor, knows very little, understands less, and never takes himself too seriously. Oddly passionate about various stocks, but always learning

Katılım Nisan 2012
504 Takip Edilen100 Takipçiler
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
OPTT has always had trouble converting orders and contracts into revenue. I hope this time is different (I hold some), but if their technology is as good as advertised, I'd think they would have more success to date. Waiting to the end of the quarter to report is a yellow flag too, given their lackluster revenue. It shouldn't have been that hard to finalize numbers in a timely manner lol management seems to use this stock as a personal piggy bank
English
0
0
1
22
Space Investor
Space Investor@Spaceillionare·
@SpaceSector001 They are just now getting legit contracts. Should be BE or net income positive in next 12 months if they can land a deal or two more. Last earnings call is decent and they've made an announcement or two.
English
2
0
1
34
Space & Defense Sector
Space & Defense Sector@SpaceSector001·
Question: $KRKNF / $PNG or $OII? Which one is a keeper if you have to chose only one of the two and why? I've got my position and I'm thinking of moving my coverage to another defense name or accumulate more of another defense name. Is underwater going to profit?
English
2
0
2
357
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
Big fan of thiel backed ventures, but general matters doesn't yet have NRC clearance, and won't have any real production ready for a couple years. Centrus already has some production (albeit small) and doing their own massive expansion to accommodate domestic production. Both can win imo, as the US tries to get off foreign fuel
English
1
0
0
38
Caesar Capital
Caesar Capital@CaesarCapitalz·
Here are four stocks I would like to add to my long term portfolio: $TEM - Tempus AI $IBRX - ImmunityBio $INFQ - Infleqtion $SMR - Nuscale Power
Caesar Capital tweet mediaCaesar Capital tweet mediaCaesar Capital tweet media
English
12
7
127
11K
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@Christo68098001 @CaesarCapitalz As someone who just watched my unrealized gains disappear in $poet over questionable management, maybe I'm a little gunshy on SMR 🤣 I do like the company, and I agree with the need for massive, rapid nuclear development. Maybe I've gotta dig back in or just open a spec play here
English
0
0
1
98
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@CompoundingPays @CaesarCapitalz I've had it in my watchlist for a while but only starting to do the work. What's the tldr here? Cause my biggest hangup is it seems like they're 3+ years from meaningful revenue. I bought some of those EV spacs back in the day betting on the ramp up and got burned,so now I'm wary
English
0
0
2
25
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@CaesarCapitalz I'd recommend $LEU in this space (only domestic manufacturer of enriched uranium and expanding production for commercial scaling), and if you want a spec play $IMSR (alternative fuel to uranium). Why bet on who gets to build the plant when you can bet on who provides the fuel?
English
3
0
3
442
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@CaesarCapitalz I wanna like $SMR because they had a head start on approved design with the NRC, but management is shady.. Losing fluor as a key shareholder/partner and paying $500 million to ENTRA1 under G&A, and then admitting ENTRA1 won't be building the plant, just too many red flags rn
English
2
0
1
319
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
Interesting perspective. When I was in ops, our designers would show me their creations/mock ups in figma, but I never had to interact or build anything with it. For me, I think the market is discounting the horror stories of "claude deleted our production database and backups in 9 seconds". Obviously a design tool isn't likely to escape its sandbox and go haywire like that, but if figma offers a "good enough" text to design alternative and maintains the trust of their user base, I have to think those switching costs are high to the decision makers (who usually aren't the designers).
English
0
0
1
24
DVB
DVB@DeepValueBagger·
Remember my insights is not about making money, but how NOT to lose money. I steered people away from $BMNR $CLSK $MARA $HIMS $ASST $MSTR $OKLO $UNH $DUOL $EOSE $NOW $FIG $PYPL -- on and on. I was wrong about $ASTS, but hey. No way can be 10/10.
English
18
3
129
14.8K
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
Startups will always seek the cheapest MVP solution because they have limited resources. Large enterprise customers want a system of record they can trust, with component libraries, history, etc, all of which is housed within figma. Borrowing from @WisemanCap recent article, 60% of the files created on figma are being done by non-designers. Those are not people who are going to be easily moved to anthropic imo. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think IF the anthropic disruption case takes hold, it takes longer than the market thinks, and figma has time to keep integrating AI tools to make it less enticing for entrenched customers to switch.
English
1
0
1
87
DVB
DVB@DeepValueBagger·
@Spheniscidae007 @capiscecapital Some startup people are doing end to end by themselves without the people. These will pave for more tools, and ideas ..
English
1
0
0
225
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@fundmyfund How far OTM do you usually end up going on these leaps? I didn't even realize they had chains out to 2028 until I saw you talking about it yesterday
English
2
0
0
13
Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋
2/2 I have 4 buckets of exposure: 28 LEAPs, 27 LEAPs, 26 calls, common. First two are long term, second two are short term i.e. "active trading". Won't be touching the first two under any conditions based on where I see this company going the next 2-3 years. Latter 2 could be gone today or held for weeks. I am going to treat the chart as if the bottom of yesterday's candle didn't happen since it was just an odd day and trade against the 21 ema for the short term merchandise. If the stock is in demand it should not break that level - I marked it out in a green box. If it breaks that level I'd take a smallish loss in the common and my once very profitable Sep calls (by once, I mean yesterday in pre mkt) would be the pain point but will trade it with discipline and remove any mental affection for the story and reduce my risk with an exit. Last 2nd half of October I stayed stubborn due to the fundamental story and suffered a 45% drawdown in 6 weeks up to Thanksgiving week; giving away mounds of unrealized gains and then gains that turned to losses. Reduced by year from "bonkers" to just "good" in that 6 week period (I did the same thing in $RCAT) After analysis of my year, I won't repeat that anytime go forward. You can always get back in, even if at higher prices. And in this case I have a layer of long term LEAPs as an offset for any out of the blue news.
English
2
0
7
508
Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋
1/2 $LPTH yesterday was a bummer in the chart structure but not yet the end of things short term. Rarely are you going to see something go from "breakout" above all key moving averages to touching the 50 day moving average within a few market hours, sans news that directly affects that specific company. So as the kids say that was an 'expectations breaker'
Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋 tweet media
Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋@fundmyfund

$LPTH back above 21 ema Now if it recovers next day or two, we can just photoshop away that bottom half of the candle and pretend it never happened

English
3
0
6
3.8K
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@Kaizen_Investor I did the same this morning. My cost basis was a little lower, it was a small spec bet for me, but management just ruined any semblance of trust I had left. And I was already wavering on that front after the last surprise capital raise with mentions of m&a. On to the next one!
English
0
0
1
321
KaizenInvestor
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor·
Decided to sell my $POET shares at $8. My average cost was $5.8 so I secure a 38% profit. Obviously disappointed but the only right decision for me to make here. Cancelling your orders because of an NDA is legally viable. But after a collaboration of 3-years, cancelling everything overnight just raises too much questions. It’s obvious that $MRVL has an in-house solution ready with the acquisition of Polariton. The fact that they have an in-house solution makes that companies are catching up on the POET tech. The Celestial AI order should have given us confirmation on the execution and scalability of POET but this timeline is now completely gone. I’m sure investors will start a lawsuit as well within a couple of days for everyone that started investing because of the confirmation of the CFO. The stock rose from $4.9 to $15 because of the CFO interview but now that the purchase order is completely gone, I don’t see why the stock will go back up short-term. Yes, they got $420m cash, buy without orders they are burning through this with an enormous pace. The short report did not change my thesis, management failure does.
KaizenInvestor tweet media
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor

Not the best way to start my Monday. $POET down almost 50% after $MRVL cancelled all the orders for Celestial AI. The reason? POET breached the NDA last week. The NDA is a confidentiality agreement between both parties to keep the cooperation secret. After the short report, the POET management tried to appease investors by confirming the purchase order of Marvell. One of the most stupid decisions, certainly if you know you have an NDA. The only positive here is that the cancellation is not about the technology. On the other hand, the fact that they pusher POET aside so quickly, means that they believe they have other solutions available imo. I need to let this sink in for a minute. Not selling my shares atm.

English
42
9
282
70K
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@fundmyfund Nobody ever went broke taking gains 🤣 I already didn't trust management a ton after all the raises, but that one was the final straw. Just happy I'm getting better at sizing lol past me would have made that a chunk of my portfolio for the upside and never underwrite the downside
English
1
0
1
13
Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋
If your furu was beating their chest on $POET Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and suddenly doesn't talk about what they are doing with the position this morning (or suddenly claims they were "out" but neglected to tell you), find yourself a new furu. This sh** happens in the real world... not the illusory 95% win rate world a lot of furus exist in. You have to bite the bullet, take the hit, and keep grinding. Could have very easily been in that myself, but I was in $LWLG (which I exited Fri as stock weakened) Happens to all of us actually trading in the real world. @NirAoo7
Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋@fundmyfund

$POET implosion wow! -43% It's like a biotech ------------------ POET TECHNOLOGIES PROVIDES PURCHASE ORDER UPDATE POET TECHNOLOGIES INC - CANCELS ALL PURCHASE ORDERS RECEIVED FROM CELESTIAL AI POET TECHNOLOGIES: MARVELL CITED CO MADE DISCLOSURES OF INFORMATION "IN CONTRAVENTION OF ITS CONFIDENTIALITY OBLIGATIONS"

English
8
0
15
2.7K
Caesar Capital
Caesar Capital@CaesarCapitalz·
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT TIME: Some of you probably do one stock in, one stock out. I’m currently trying to reduce the number of positions in my portfolio, so if I want to add $OUST, I will need to exit two existing positions. And I really like what I’m reading about Ouster 👀
English
8
1
49
25.4K
Tech Equity Engineer
Tech Equity Engineer@TechEquityEng·
Great post on the bottlenecks and pricing pressures within the freight industry by @KobeissiLetter. These trucking numbers are exactly why autonomous freight such as $AUR and $KDK are getting real attention right now. Costs are rising fast: • fuel up ~50% • driver supply shrinking • rates up ~30% in months Aurora Innovation, which is my highest conviction moonshot investment, is built for this exact setup. They help by: • removing driver constraints entirely • running trucks longer hours with no HOS limits • improving fuel efficiency through consistent driving • giving shippers more predictable, contract-based pricing This isn’t just about saving money on labor. It’s about turning a volatile cost structure into something stable, scalable, and safe. When the industry gets squeezed like this, the value prop becomes a lot easier to understand. As the leader in autonomous freight, I expect $AUR to capture a huge chunk of market share and dominate this space. - TEE
Tech Equity Engineer tweet media
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

US trucking costs are rapidly rising: The per-mile cost to hire a truck to move goods is up to $2.97 per mile, the highest since June 2022. At the same time, the dry-van rate, the most common truck type used for general freight like retail and packaged goods, is up to $2.50 per mile, the highest since May 2022. Both rates have risen roughly +30% since September 2025. This comes as diesel prices have spiked nearly +50% since the start of the Iran war, forcing haulers to raise weekly per-mile fuel surcharges. Meanwhile, truck transportation payrolls are down to 1.46 million, the lowest since September 2020, which was already tightening the supply of available drivers and pushing rates higher even before the war. Fewer drivers and surging fuel costs are now being passed directly to shippers, raising inflation pressures across the economy. Inflation will soon follow.

English
4
3
24
4.3K
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
My reasons would be speed to recovery (minutes to hours of downtime), leveraging their customer base to improve their threat detection. Also with the rise of agentic AI, their agent rewind functionality is going to be crucial unless you have full confidence in the folks building those agents and the guardrails placed on them
English
1
0
1
53
Nanalyze
Nanalyze@nanalyzetweets·
CrowdStrike $CRWD, Rubrik $RBRK, and Cloudflare $NET are all identified by ARK Invest as cybersecurity names that are impervious to the "AI SaaS threat" with their "deep data moats, established distribution, and proven reliability." We'll look to cover $RBRK for the first time soon. Stay tuned.
English
6
3
72
7.3K
Caesar Capital
Caesar Capital@CaesarCapitalz·
I bought a speculative position in 2 small caps today. Actually, micro caps. I’m not making the usual post; I don’t want to be called a pump and dump 😂 I’m not going to share the tickers unless you guys really want to know.
English
25
0
60
48.2K
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@TechEquityEng @KobeissiLetter Funny, I have actually been tempted to buy into both. I think they have slightly different niches/angles, and I have been focused on a lot of defense names lately, so the military play on $KDK is intriguing for me
English
1
0
1
93
Tech Equity Engineer
Tech Equity Engineer@TechEquityEng·
@capiscecapital @KobeissiLetter Some folks like to invest in both for diversification if bullish in autonomous freight. For me I like investing in the leader in the industry and that is $AUR. Not financial advice.
English
2
0
6
357
capisce capital
capisce capital@capiscecapital·
@AuditTheHerd Yeah my initial purchases are in that same area, high 50s I believe. I've just been having a hell of a time trying to nail down what I think is "fair" for it. Fair comment on performance, and I think their management team is strong so looking forward to watching them execute
English
1
0
0
76
Audit The Herd
Audit The Herd@AuditTheHerd·
@capiscecapital There’s no accurate way of valuing it right now if I’m being honest. I could make the case for overvalued and undervalued. If they perform, it shouldn’t matter in the long term. For reference, I started buying in the 60s
English
1
0
1
114
Audit The Herd
Audit The Herd@AuditTheHerd·
$TEM is down 50%+ from its ATH. Most people see that and assume something broke. Nothing broke. This is one of the more persistent mistakes in retail investing ….anchoring to price action as a proxy for business quality. The stock fell so the company must be struggling. The stock rallied so they must be executing. It feels intuitive. It’s usually wrong. Warren Buffet has consistently talked about the divergence between price and value but for some reason, it never sticks with people. Price is a function of sentiment, liquidity, positioning, and macro flows. Business quality is a function of revenue trajectory, margin structure, competitive position, and management execution. These two things can and do diverge …sometimes dramatically, sometimes for extended periods. If we look at $TEM. The stock is off 50%+ from highs. The business posted ~83% revenue growth last year with help from the Ambry acq., crossed $1.27B, hit positive Adjusted EBITDA for the first time in Q3, and now has $1.1B+ in contracted pharma and biotech agreements with AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Lilly. Diagnostics grew 111%. None of that is reflected in how most people are currently talking about the stock. The only “bearish” point would be their 25% FY guide which is sandbagging as I’ve mentioned previous times. $LMND tells a similar story. Nine straight quarters of IFP growth, now past $1.24B. Gross loss ratio down to the low-60s% from much higher levels. Q4 revenue up 53% YoY. ~55% of claims processed with minimal human involvement. The unit economics are improving every quarter, the market just hasn’t cared. At some point the gap between business performance and price either closes or it doesn’t. That’s my bet. But the first question isn’t “is the chart broken” …it’s “is the business broken.” If the answer is no, the rest is just volatility. Know what you own. The price tells you what the market thinks today. The fundamentals tell you what the business actually is.
Audit The Herd tweet mediaAudit The Herd tweet media
English
17
4
109
10.7K