capitalist
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$MSGM some important charts for anyone interested and some analysis regarding the same.
1. DAUs & MAUs: DAU and MAU numbers have maintained the elevated levels observed since the Version 1.0 release, and the baseline lifted significantly following the v1.2 update in December. As the charts show, the numbers have held this higher baseline, which bodes incredibly well for Q1'26. The game almost broke its highest DAU record during the 12-hour testing event last weekend.
We might see a slight seasonal dip here, but expect a recovery later this month driven by the new DLC launch, alongside anticipated bug fixes and announcements regarding the Virtual Le Mans event. Keep in mind that the e-gaming segment has generated no revenue for two years, any contribution here will be a pure tailwind against $0 comps.
2. Revenue Estimate: The model suggests that revenue from base game sales will likely be flat QoQ. I am not concerned about this, as I expect top-line lift to be driven by Deferred Revenue converting to realized revenue this quarter. We should also see a better attach rate from DLC sales (following the large December release) and RaceControl revenue exiting the quarter at a potential $2.5M ARR. The average playtime chart proves our core thesis; players spending more time in game leads to higher retention and directly aids add-on sales.
3. F1 Arcade: The Las Vegas F1 Arcade opened in October (their largest location with the most sims), which will meaningfully boost the licensing revenue portion of the business. My estimation is that this segment is already doing > $1M ARR. There are 8 F1 Arcades open right now, and Kindred Concepts plans to scale to 30 by the end of 2027. This business alone could add more than $3M in recurring revenue by the end of next year at 85%+ gross margins. To put that into perspective, the company's total revenue for 2024 was ~$8.7M.
It is entirely possible this stock goes from being completely ignored to a darling of FinTwit. Execution risks remain elevated, but the setup has the potential to deliver a $DBO.TO like move.
Nitin Gupta@nitininvests
$MSGM looks like people were waiting for the earnings date announcement to position long.
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I’m pretty close to throwing a fat stack into $TQQQ
Binary outcome. Either Citrini report is true & we’re all f’ed anyways
Or its not & I come out the other side with a house in Cabo
What do we think bros?
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello
% Below All-Time High S&P 500 $SPY: -2% Microsoft $MSFT: -30% Synopsys $SNPS: -36% Palo Alto Networks $PANW: -36% CrowdStrike $CRWD: -38% Palantir $PLTR: -38% AppLovin $APP: -50% Salesforce $CRM: -52% Intuit $INTU: -57% ServiceNow $NOW: -59% Oracle $ORCL: -60% Adobe $ADBE: -65%
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We actually do shotgun to sniper in life all the time
In dating you go on dates with different people to find a match, then when you find them you double down
In getting a job you apply to lots of companies, then when you get the job you focus on that
Digital nomading essentially is it too, you try many places to live to find one or a few to settle for longer
So people are focusing on a single business or project with zero traction and zero revenue and zero customers for many years is logically wrong in most cases
@levelsio@levelsio
I keep thinking of this term in my head because it's so good "Shotgun to Sniper Strategy" @marclou coined it You want to start with a shotgun strategy where you try lots of ideas, launch lots of projects, MVPs etc. add a Stripe buy button to everything Then see what really gets traction, goes viral, makes money (!) and then what keeps making money over time (like months) Then you wanna sniper and focus on that project to make it big
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ASSOCIATE’S TOOLKIT
Well the integration playbook ran
Here is the actual end of the rope
Comment, like, follow (so I can DM you) to get
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Checking why people were gifted for Christmas and seeing a lot of $LULU $ATZ and $SN.
Will check on BNPL data but I’m sure this year will see another step up from last year. Inflation is showing its teeth in precious metals but it’s not stopping people from swiping the plastic.
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Framework to beat the market:
1) Recent insider buying;
2) Some niche fintwit account (must be <1k followers) pitching it;
3) Clear catalyst or significant recent market decline;
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Most people don’t realize you can JUST DO THINGS. This is always my message to college / young professionals.
How I learn everything is by building it. When I got into HBS they made me take a “pre” class on finance. I was an entrepreneur… I didn’t understand excel or what a DCF was (glad that was the only place to use it). I was literally doing math on graph paper and in an IDE window for more complex stuff.
I took my whole first year to teach myself banking and PE 101. Literally learned how to build models from K’s / Q’s. Fast? No. Efficient like a class? Def not. But gave me a deep mastery of financials. Building blocks for later in life.
The point is … don’t underestimate what you can DO. You want to learn something? Build it. Now with LLMs there is no reason you don’t build first. Master later.
ℏεsam@Hesamation
Karpathy spilled the formula of truly learning something: > don’t write blog posts > don’t do slides > write the code > arrange it > get it to work if you can truly build it you can say you know it. build from scratch guys.
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It’s tough to disagree with someone managing one of the best-performing hedge funds ever, especially if you’re just a regular market participant. But when you speak from a $60bn AUM perspective, it’s a completely different world. I still think GenAI can extract alpha in niche markets with limited capacity.
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@TheDealMakerGuy Agree - and valuations are still extremely low too. If you have the capital you can make extraordinary profits without having to take too much risk.
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Imagine buying a €10M company - without risking your own money.
That’s not fantasy. It’s the traditional search fund model.
Gaining traction fast in Europe (and even in Poland).
Lately I’ve been getting a lot of questions from people in Poland and Europe who are less familiar with how search funds actually work.
So I prepared this short cheat sheet on what they are and why they’re becoming so popular.
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@DumbMoneyCapitl and discard all ideas from accounts with more than 8k followers
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$700k to $8.4m with this investment strategy:
0. It needs to be a bull-market
1. Be chronically online reading Reddit (wsb, investing, stocks) and X.
2. The algo will push new tickers at you, look for low marketcap companies in industries with secular growth (AI / space / etc)
3. Do light DD, aggressively prune opportunities you don't like / understand / dislike the risk profile / aren't sold on
4. Monitor for stocks that have broken out recently
5. Invest a small amount (1-5% of portfolio) and start monitoring daily
6. Ramp up DD. Watch earnings calls, follow retail traders on X, consume exec team interviews, find financial models, join discords and X communities.
7. When you're confident in your thesis + breakout confirmed and catalysts to move higher, invest 20%-100% of your portfolio.
8. Write thesis that clearly explains why you're committing such a large amount of capital to this investment
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Hit 32 today while portfolio hits all time highs & way above what I initially set out for. Couldn’t ask for a better gift. Truly, no better feeling in the world to know you’ve hit financial independence & will never have to have to slave for others again while young. Onwards
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What up X SMB community. Gained a ton of insight & knowledge on all things business through X so thought I'd start chiming in and share my story!
Started Sierra Crest Tree Service in South Lake Tahoe, CA summer of '23 w/ no savings and 15k+ CC debt: 🧵
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With so many companies ripping on earnings (Duolingo, Celsius, Shopify, Lemonade, Niagen, etc.), not sure how long I hold $YETI, but w/ their qtr ending June 28 I think a good chunk of the demand spike was after & could setup for next qtr. Thoughts? trends.google.com/trends/explore… $GoTr
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$CELH initial read is extremely good. Blew out top line expectations. As I have been saying for almost 2 months now, the market share for the Celsius portfolio is going to be 17%+, we came in at 17.3%. I believe we will hit 18%+ by the end of Q3. Alani Nu revenue came in at $301.2M, the sales for the entire year, last year was $585M, thesis has been validated.
Nitin Gupta@nitininvests
Apart from the recent High Noon controversy, which should definitely help the scanner data, I believe the market is still not fully realizing Alani's potential for $CELH. Yesterday, I went through the websites for all U.S. Costco locations and found that Alani is the best-selling energy drink in over 90% of them. The limited-time Witch's Brew flavor is going viral, and Google Trends clearly reflects its traction. Fans are stocking up on the flavor to ensure they have enough for the year before it's gone. I think it's challenging for analysts to model Alani's performance right now, as this will be the first quarter it's fully included in the company's results. Regardless of the upcoming earnings, the traction is undeniable. Alani is now the number two best-selling energy drink on $AMZN, and its BSR (Best Seller Rank) has dramatically dropped since June of this year. I believe Alani's current market share is potentially around 7.5%, which is a truly remarkable achievement. I anticipate the success of the upcoming Winter Wonderland flavor, expected later this year, will be astounding. Shout-out to @moneygurg for his help assist on this one.
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Apart from the recent High Noon controversy, which should definitely help the scanner data, I believe the market is still not fully realizing Alani's potential for $CELH. Yesterday, I went through the websites for all U.S. Costco locations and found that Alani is the best-selling energy drink in over 90% of them.
The limited-time Witch's Brew flavor is going viral, and Google Trends clearly reflects its traction. Fans are stocking up on the flavor to ensure they have enough for the year before it's gone. I think it's challenging for analysts to model Alani's performance right now, as this will be the first quarter it's fully included in the company's results.
Regardless of the upcoming earnings, the traction is undeniable. Alani is now the number two best-selling energy drink on $AMZN, and its BSR (Best Seller Rank) has dramatically dropped since June of this year. I believe Alani's current market share is potentially around 7.5%, which is a truly remarkable achievement. I anticipate the success of the upcoming Winter Wonderland flavor, expected later this year, will be astounding. Shout-out to @moneygurg for his help assist on this one.
Nitin Gupta@nitininvests
$CELH Using the MULO numbers from the last Celsius earnings presentation and accounting for the volume growth as per the BevInsights numbers we are potentially looking at >$1.5B in scanner sales (ignoring price gain) for the 12 weeks period ended July 12, 2025 which will be 78% higher than last year for Alani and Celsius combined. Alani is tracking at over 110% YoY as per my analysis but for these numbers to be accurate, Celsius must be seeing robust growth as well. This could be a huge week for the future of this stock.
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$SNAP - there might be something here. Talked to a few users and each one of them says the same thing, "The number of ads has increased significantly". My second question generally is, "Would you uninstall the app, due to this?" They start out saying maybe and then go on to say, "All my friends are on it (network effect) so can't really delete it, I might just get Snapchat+ if the ads get too crazy."
Interesting to see this actually show up in the data. The ads page is getting significantly higher traffic in Q2, one to watch.
Nitin Gupta@nitininvests
Is there something going on at $SNAP? The chart looks like it wants to curl up.
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