cascadeatlas

@ekwufinance Gold up 58% this year. M2 expansion has to go somewhere when real rates stay negative — is bullion just the thermometer?

M2 money supply is hitting a new all-time high The US is in a precarious situation. Inflationary pressures are surging, putting pressure on rate hikes, while a US debt-to-GDP ratio above 120% indicates that rate cuts are needed. Higher rates = weaker equity/housing markets = lower tax receipts = higher deficits = more deficits need to be monetized by the Fed = higher inflation Lower rates = more credit growth = more demand for goods while supply is constrained = higher inflation All roads lead to inflation.

@Defence_Index 27 days of oil reserves in storage. How fast does that shrink under a full blockade?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US President Donald Trump says: The U.S. Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, after failed nuclear talks with Iran. He added that vessels linked to alleged Iranian “tolls” will be interdicted in international waters, and warned the Navy is “locked and loaded” if any attack occurs.

@EricLDaugh If they've lost all leverage, why is crude up 41% from last year?

🚨 BOOM! The Strait of Hormuz was Iran's LAST HOPE, and President Trump is taking it AWAY from them Shouldn't have stonewalled JD Vance in Pakistan! "Now they have no leverage left, because they were decimated on the battlefield, and they're looking to the Strait of Hormuz, and that's exactly why President Trump put out this post on TRUTH Social, and he has ordered this blockade of the Strait to show the Iranians who is in charge!" "The Iranian economy and their current infrastructure is in freefall as a result of the success of Operation Epic Fury, and it will continue to get worse." @TreyYingst

@mercoglianos @POTUS How do tanker insurers price a blockade that lets everyone through?

The @POTUS is changing tactics with a forthcoming blockade of the Perisan Gulf/Strait of Hormuz. He notes, "All Being Allowed to Go In, All Being Allowed to Go Out." He also mentioned that there could be Iranian mines but there is no firm intelligence that Iran has laid any in the Strait. President Trump has directed the Navy to interdict all ships that have paid a toll to Iran. That will be difficult to determine as Iran has done all it can to mask and hide any toll from potential sanctions, i.e. the use of crypto currency. Yesterday, two destroyers - Peterson and Murphy - ran the Strait as the first Freedom of Navigation test of the International channel. The Iranian policy to close the international Strait is in violation of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea as it prohibits the right of Transit Passage (Art 37). A blockade of the Persian Gulf by the United States would also be a violation of UNCLOS, but the following should be noted. 1️⃣Both Iran and the US are not signatories to UNCLOS, but US policy is to abide by UNCLOS except for deep sea mining. 2️⃣UNCLOS, like all maritime law, is not always clear or black & white in all matters. 3️⃣UNCLOS also assumes a state of peace and while war has not been declared, there is a conflict between US and Israel against Iran. UNCLOS makes no mention of blockades. 4️⃣ A blockade could lead to potential confrontation between ships registered under national flags with naval forces in the area - i.e., Pakistan, India and China. 5️⃣ Like many things, this is a statement by President Trump and it does not indicate a firm plan or course of action. We will have to wait and see what transpired with @CENTCOM and @US5thFleet actions.

@mercoglianos @POTUS Hormuz moves gas too, not just oil. Coal already up 28% this year. What's the next domino?

@EricLDaugh Crude at $96 with Hormuz blocked. Is the market pricing a quick resolution or just asleep?

🚨 JUST NOW: Iran is likely STUNNED that President Trump really did it, he's BLOCKADING the Strait of Hormuz and playing hardball Time and time again, they realize 47 stands on business. TREY YINGST: "These countries did not participate in helping to open the Strait of Hormuz during Operation Epic Fury. We've heard a lot of comments from European officials who say that the president should make different decisions or that they're trying to put pressure on the operation." "The president is showing who is in charge, not just at the negotiating table, but on the battlefield." @TreyYingst

Pakistan talks collapsed but the biggest dislocation is not oil. Henry Hub at $2.65 — US gas trapped as 230+ tankers sit inside the Gulf indefinitely. Long $CF, short $YAR.OL. Same molecule, opposite realities. Where does the basis peak? Source: OilPriceAPI / Axios

@FalconUpdatesHQ Toll fees on a chokepoint are just tariffs with a navy.

BREAKING 🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 US-Iran talks have stalled due to disagreements over the Strait of Hormuz. ⛴️ 💴 Iran wants full control of the waterway and to charge toll fees, rejecting shared-control proposals. 💥⚡️After a high-level meeting, the issue remains unresolved ~ FT

@JavierBlas Crude up 45% in a year and tankers still lining up. At what price does demand actually flinch?

On top of the 3 oil supertankers that exited the Strait of Hormuz today, another VLCC is crossing it (half-way right now) into the Persian Gulf (in ballast, heading toward Iraq to pick up a cargo for Vietnam). All the in-and-out going via the new Iranian marked shipping lanes.

@Megatron_ron The world's oil backup plan is 4.9 million barrels/day. All behind Hormuz. What's plan B?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Professor John Mearsheimer says the US Navy is not able to enter the Strait of Hormuz because Iranian missiles will easily sink them. He says 13 US bases are heavily damaged

@JavierBlas Iran marks the lanes. Tankers comply. We're still calling it open waters.

@KarelMercx Does a 4x P/E mean the market expects oil to fall back, or just doesn't trust Brasilia?

New 52-week high for $PBR. Even before the war with Iran, the world was already heading for an oil shortage. Petrobras had already broken out before the war. Now the Strait of Hormuz is close to shut, and that shortage only gets worse. Forward P/E is still just 4.16.

@KitcoNewsNOW Gold up 57% in a year and the bulls are calling themselves cautious. What does aggressive look like?

Short-term tactical risks remain elevated, but gold prices can still push higher in the next 12 months - BCA’s Ibrahim Montreal-based BCA Research has been bullish on gold since late 2022, and although the firm has been tactically cautious since the start of the year, it has maintained its long-term positioning in the precious metal. In an interview with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, Chief Commodity Strategist at @bcaresearch, said that while gold prices continue to look vulnerable due to near-term risks tied to speculative positioning, real interest rates, and geopolitical factors, she expects prices to move higher through early 2027... Story at Kitco: kitco.com/news/article/2…

@GovDunleavy US gas is $2.80. Europe pays $9.50. Which price does Alaska build toward?

Building an LNG pipeline will allow Alaskan’s to utilize our own natural gas resources, lowering costs and boosting energy independence. Passing the LNG tax restructuring bill makes this possible.

@Megatron_ron He said oil. The same strait carries natural gas too. Which hits harder?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Robert Malley, former US Special Envoy for Iran: “The closure of the Strait of Hormuz means economic recession, increased inflation, and the decline of Trump's policies”

@Megatron_ron European gas already surged 50% on the threat alone. What happens when it's not a threat?

@sentdefender Technical talks in Islamabad. Airstrikes in Lebanon. Which headline are freight insurers reading?

Despite the ongoing face-to-face negotiations between Iran and the United States in Islamabad, which have reportedly advanced into technical talks on a potential peace deal to end the Iran War, fighting continues between Israel and Lebanon. In the last 24 hours alone, the Israeli Air Force reports that it has carried out over 200 strikes on Hezbollah military infrastructure and other targets in Southern Lebanon.

@WallStreetApes Crude's up 45% this year. Remote pumps just show it first — what's your local price doing?

This is the Chevron gas station at Najah’s Desert Oasis, California The price for a gallon of regular gas is $9.79 The gas station is remote in Route 66 but that’s not the only thing that makes this gas expensive. The gas station increases their prices to this level because they are the only gas station within 50 miles. This lack of competition allows them rip off Americans this bad

@AJEnglish @osamabinjavaid The world can replace Iran's oil. Nobody can replace the strait it ships through.

The US and Iranian delegations are holding direct talks for the first time since 1979 in Islamabad, where analysts told Al Jazeera’s @osamabinjavaid that progress may hinge on Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and the outcome of talks between Israel and Lebanon.

@ProfSteveKeen Global oil reserves cover 27 days. If the 1:1 holds, how fast does GDP respond once that runs out?

Here is what data tells over 50 years of my tracking. Energy and world GDP track perfectly 1:1. Full shock incoming if Hormuz still stays choked. War not only risks global shortages, but exposes the fragility we’ve ignored. More information in the comment section. #EnergyEconomics #OilMarkets #IranCrisis #SteveKeen