CBLE

Heyo fuck SEDAR+, all my homies hate SEDAR+.

“Give them a massive amount of oil, agricultural land, copper, freshwater, and every natural resource in the world. Now make them neighbors with the biggest market in the world. Great, now have them leave the resources in the ground and instead flip condos to each other”.

@GrumpierBTDay @Henrik115 Everything? Insightful...

When it comes to commodities, I'm buying what China's buying.

Curious how Jane Street made $40 billion last year with few negative days? Here’s one example: - Between 1990-2000, there was only one exchange-listed product to trade natural gas: the NYMEX (now CME) physically-settled futures contract - In 2000, ICE realized there was demand for a financially settled (swap) futures contract and introduced it - CME countered and listed their own swap future At this point, the products were primarily for institutional and sophisticated individuals with a commodities account. But as commodities boomed in the 2000s, exchanges created new contracts to increase access and appeal to retail traders. - the NYSE introduced an ETF (UNG) that followed natural gas prices in 2007 - More ETFs followed that offered ability to bet on a price decline and to get 2x or 3x leverage - CME introduced a mini contract that was 1/4th the size of the original The next evolution was to appeal to the pure speculator by expanding the market to less regulated exchanges, widening access globally, increasing leverage, and creating daily bets. - CME introduced the micro contract that is 1/10th the size of the original - CME and ICE introduced contracts that expire each trading day - Hyperliquid and Binance offer unregulated, on-chain, high leverage, perpetual nat gas contracts for non-US uses - Kalshi offers same day binary contracts. Other prediction markets are moving forward as well. Now add other iterations on settlement days for the contracts and options on everything listed above. Note that all of these contracts settle (perps notwithstanding) against the original CME physical futures contract. But instead of one way to trade the product, there are dozens. This creates an opportunity to make markets across all of these surfaces and arbitrage among them. And that's what Jane Street and other similar HFT shops do (among many, many other things). Nat gas for delivery at Henry Hub, Louisiana is just one product. Take all the ways to trade equities, currencies, commodities, crypto, interest rates, etc across all the different exchanges in all the jurisdictions and the opportunity of making $50 here and $1000 there adds up to an enormous, low-risk money making machine. This opportunity originates from the large variety of ways people desire to trade random financial instruments and the various products designed for them. This creates a hugely profitable opportunity for the HFTs. They provide a valuable service of creating liquidity for those seeking to trade. Whether that trading is smart and profitable for the average punter on the other side is a different story.

@dominicdeecoco It didn't require an AK.

@Coastal_Kiid @stephmase22 Wouldn' t be surprised if that goes nowhere. But, that's above my paygrade. I'm also not sure that there's anything wrong with a naked short given a pending borrow/delivery. I would assume that those guys can source the borrow.

@stephmase22 @cble416 One example.

📣📣CITADEL AND OTHER MARKET MAKERS ARE HEAVILY INVOLVED IN THE MMTLP HALT Citadel Securities, Virtu, Anson Fund and now Jane Street are all heavily involved in the MMAT MMTLP U3 Halt that left 65 THOUSAND SHAREHOLDERS in limbo and their money frozen. SEC and FINRA have ignored harmed investors. But the Bankruptcy Judge Trustee might be the hero in this story as the order for discovery from the DTCC.

@Coastal_Kiid @burrytracker What fuckery, they are maintaining the road, which you are fres not to use, and taking for a toll.

@cble416 @burrytracker Understood - do the heaps of nefarious fuckery have to come with it? Interstates exist, and we don’t have to worry about thieves every time we decide to jump on the highway. The highway is a service.

The most secretive firm on Wall Street is making $11,000,000 per employee The firm is called Jane Street and here is how they generate billions of dollars despite their trading strategy being so simple They make a fraction of a cent per trade but do it billions of times a day Every time you buy or sell an ETF, someone has to be on the other side of that trade. Jane Street is almost always that someone. They fill your order and pocket the difference between what you paid and what the ETF is actually worth Timeline: • 1999: Four traders leave Susquehanna and found Jane Street & they start by trading foreign company stocks listed on U.S. exchanges • 2007: Become one of the largest ETF market makers in the world • 2020: $10,600,000,000 in revenue • 2024: $20,500,000,000 in revenue. More than Citi and Bank of America's entire trading divisions • 2025: $39,600,000,000 in revenue. More than every bank on Wall Street combined Jane Street has also been building one of the most aggressive AI investment portfolios including Anthropic, CoreWeave, and a dozen others In Q3 2025, their Anthropic position made ~$830M

@YellowLabLife No.

'Twas the night before AlphaMoon $AFM.V dividend, when all through the globe Not a creature was stirring, not even a short needing cope; The shareholdings were positioned by the chimney with care, In hopes that IRH’s degenerate need for cash soon would be there; The marsupial’s joeys were nestled all snug in their beds; While visions of tin-plums danced in their heads; And Mrs Koala in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap, Had just settled our too online brains for a long evening nap, When out on the roof there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter. Away to the window of the eucalyptus tree I flew like a flash, Tore open the branches and threw up the eucalyptus sash. The moon on the breast of the new-fallen hallucinated snow, Gave a lustre of Bisie to objects below, When what to my wondering eyes did appear, But a miniature Irishman and eight tiny director overseers, With a young vibrant driver so lively and in the zone, I knew in a moment he must be St. Eoin.

@boomersdid911 @cafreiman You're dumb, if you don't know how to interpret and transform the data.

You people can’t be this dumb man Will you ever learn GDP has zero correlation to the quality of life for the average citizen? Money itself is a made up concept. If your gov’t can provide healthcare, food, and jobs… suddenly people realize life is sacred, they have more kids and get happier over time. When you add money to the equation you get inequality, inefficiency, and rape islands

Counterpoint:

@Coastal_Kiid @burrytracker Liquidity is a service.

@burrytracker Parasites. Do they offer a service and/or provide value, yes or no? Shut them down.

@hamburgaler15 @CapitalBci @NewYorkStateAG @Kalshi Yes, it does.

@cble416 @CapitalBci @NewYorkStateAG @Kalshi Right but the original tweet mentions nothing of the sort

My office and a group of AGs are supporting a lawsuit against @Kalshi for illegally offering sports betting that violates states' gambling laws. Kalshi’s sports event contracts are gambling by another name, and they should play by the same rules as every other gambling platform.

@hamburgaler15 @CapitalBci @NewYorkStateAG @Kalshi Correct. Regulated by the CTFC.

@cble416 @CapitalBci @NewYorkStateAG @Kalshi The tweet is about swaps on financial markets

@hamburgaler15 @CapitalBci @NewYorkStateAG @Kalshi The CFTC

@CapitalBci @NewYorkStateAG @Kalshi What are you talking about

@FuzzyBe02910905 @TeddyGambino IBKR and WS.

@cble416 @TeddyGambino Who are your accounts with? Investorline does not offer the option. (And I'm w/you on Sedar+ - it's crap.)

$TCW short sake update a/o 4/15 +1.13 million shares to 3.94m Anyone owning more than 25k, get those shares shifted to “customer name” at your bank/broker. Drive up the costs for the borrow. m.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_ti…

@TeddyGambino @FuzzyBe02910905 I'm lending out of TFSA/RRSP. I don't quite get the argument why not to. Shorts will have to cover if I'm right on the long thesis, and I think I would like them to all do simultaneously.

@FuzzyBe02910905 ✅

Every day of stalemate, the world forfeits another 12MM Bbls of production. That’s 360MM Bbls a month with most safety buffers now becoming exhausted, meaning going forward either visible onshore inventories plummet, or demand falls due to much higher pricing.

One of these things is the S&P 500. The other two are diversifying stores of value. Name them only looking at the picture.

OIL & DIESEL: THE NEW “BLACK GOLD”? Jefferies says oil markets are mispriced and raised long-term forecasts, citing tighter supply and rising geopolitical risk. New targets: WTI ~$70–$82, Brent ~$75 Supply is constrained (millions of barrels offline), but reserves and storage have temporarily masked shortages Future prices may need to rise to curb demand and incentivize production U.S. shale growth is slowing, and even higher prices may not trigger enough new supply. Meanwhile, threats to energy infrastructure (e.g., near the Strait of Hormuz) are increasing. Bottom line: Jefferies sees structurally tighter markets ahead—supporting oil and diesel as increasingly valuable assets.

@TheH0n3stTrader @Henrik115 Oh yeah, he must have been trained on the famous 'breakouts desk' at Point72, or was it the soybeans breakout desk of Bunge? Must have been a 'breakouts arbitrage' desk at an IB' prop in the 70's! Get the fuck out of here.

I met a trader at the airport. Delayed flight. Midnight. Empty gate. He sat alone. His laptop open. Charts glowing in the dark. Didn’t look like success, though. He was a small dude in his 50s. Overweight. Hoodie. No energy. Like.. sleep was optional.. and he skipped it. But then he spoke. “13 years trading.” “Average 21% yearly return.” “Max drawdown? 19%.” “Win Rate? 44%.. Risk:Reward? 1:2.5.” He trades one thing. Breakouts. Higher timeframes. 4H and Daily charts. Rules were strict: – 1% risk per trade. – No overtrading. – Kill losers fast. – Let winners breathe. “No indicators, right?” I asked. He shook his head. “Price tells the truth.” Consistent. Disciplined. He’d beaten the market for over a decade. Then he looked at me. “Don’t be like me.”, he said. I smirked. Thought it was fake humility. It wasn’t. “No friends left. Family stopped inviting me. Last holiday? I don’t remember. I have no one. I am completely alone.” The gate lights flickered. “I optimized everything.. except life.” Silence again. A setup appeared on his screen. He leaned in instantly. Locked back into the charts. Like nothing else existed. My flight got called. I stood up. Looked back once. He didn’t notice. And walking down that tunnel, I realized.. Winning can be expensive.

@FundamentEdge Super interesting to follow you with such endeavors. I should be doing something similar.

I'm building out "AI-native" coverage on my old healthcare coverage (153 healthcare stocks ex-therapeutics that I covered institutionally for ~10 years). I am testing how close I can get to institutional-grade coverage while doing as little as possible manually: ramping research, building/updating models & building active coverage systems all in an agentic work platform. TO BE CLEAR, the goal isn't to deploy capital and I have zero belief that I can build an alpha generating portfolio without deep focus & rigorous primary research. However, I'm coming up with all sorts of ideas to both speed and deepen rigor on this process. It's been fun, at times frustrating, and at times mind blowing. But day by day I'm convinced that if I was back in the seat ramping coverage for real, high-stakes capital deployment, I would adopt many of these workflows. One I rather liked as a really nice triage & focus tool is a Skill I called "The #1 Thing", which is the most important fundamental metric or debate on a stock which is the key hinge point between the stock working or not. The idea is in re-embracing coverage, what is the #1 bet I would need to make on all 153 stocks to put them in the bucket of "potential long" or "potential short". This will help inform the custom agentic research process for each name. I built this for DHR below, and I'm building this into a 153 page report (1 per name under coverage). This will help me understand, across my coverage, the active research I will need to deploy to build active, deep dive agentic research & the proper tracking systems for the #1 thing across my coverage. Effectively, it will help my systems "climb the right research mountains". If you are interested, I will share a bit more on how I built this on our next open webinar next Thursday (will drop registration link in bio).

The oil market now reminds me of when prices were around $30 in March 2020. Plenty of people who never looked at oil were going long oil futures, not realising what could happen to the roll. A few weeks later prices traded negative, with a $50+ contango for WTI a day before expiry. They looked at oil futures like equity, not understanding the impact of futures roll. This time is similar, plenty of people shorting the oil market thinking the Strait of Hormuz will eventually reopen and things will go back to normal. Many are trying to call the top. Without realising they might have to roll their shorts at $30, $50, $70+ backwardation?