cc

1.2K posts

cc

cc

@cchengasaurus

rates. just a place to collate my thoughts. DMs always open

Katılım Ağustos 2017
1K Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
are we falling for this one again?
English
0
0
2
110
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
It’s over for the Cavs
English
0
0
0
139
cc retweetledi
Rishi Mishra
Rishi Mishra@aRishisays·
This move in SERFFs needs to be contextualized - it seems overshadowed by the move in rates! The front contract is trading 5s. SOFR has been around since April 2018, with around 100 monthly expiries of this spread. In this period, only 3-4 months have seen the spread expire at or above 5bps! So, this is rare! Last time a spread matured above 5bps was in 2022 - in June and Sep. That’s when the Fed was hiking 75bps every meeting and held 8.5 trillion in securities. The gap between May and August indicates that the market expects the selling to resolve soon. RMPs have added enough reserves to make them ample, but without the selling in bonds, the spread won’t be here. Be that as it *May*, SOFR is flirting with the lower end of the target range, which is why Fed’s RRP is getting some renewed interest (albeit small). I think this is a clear signal that they should pause RMPs in June. $10bn a month won’t move the needle much, but why even bother at this point? In the absence of resolution of the war driven sell-off in bonds, the gap between May and August will resolve with August moving higher. Fun times ahead :)
CME Group Interest Rates@Interest_Rates

SERFF's up, literally.

English
4
9
38
7.3K
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
@JeremyWS thanks for the idea. Guess largest risk is ecb hikes b2b and boe continues to hold (-28.5bps) or BOE goes in June and that brings down odds for going again July. maybe better to Pay the July BOE gap vs rec SOFR july?
English
1
0
1
138
Jeremy
Jeremy@JeremyWS·
Global rates pausing at the big trendlines.. so instead of focusing on outright delta, time to look around the edges for trades. July MPC gap trades less than 1bp over July ECB gap. Modal paths are for Jun+Sep from ECB, and a “not cycle” hike from BoE at July.
Jeremy tweet media
English
3
3
28
2.6K
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
Whole developed markets pricing in a hiking cycle, US needs to see atleast a hike pxed into 27. Perhaps more
English
0
0
4
195
cc retweetledi
Brian
Brian@Is_Not_Brian·
I thought this was a joke man I had to see it for myself.
Brian tweet media
FBI Boston@FBIBoston

🚨#BREAKING: An #FBI Boston investigation has resulted in charges against 30 individuals for their roles in a global insider trading scheme that netted tens of millions in illicit profits. The #FBI executed arrests in AL, CA, FL, NJ, and NY today for individuals who are accused of capitalizing on confidential information stolen from leading corporate law firms advising on mergers & acquisitions in Massachusetts and elsewhere. Two subjects, located in Israel and Russia, are actively being sought. Read more about today's takedown➡️: ow.ly/tyCh50YVHRu

English
299
2.2K
21.5K
4.9M
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
World is awaiting another witkoff kusher fumble
English
1
0
4
1.9K
Ed Bradford
Ed Bradford@Fullcarry·
Is Trump negotiating with himself?
English
18
7
122
8.2K
pads
pads@padadiso·
looks good to me full kelly and straight to prod, claudington
zostaff@zostaff

a sports analytics guy at MIT DM'd me after my last post "NBA stat models need 10 years of play-by-play data. you're telling me Claude does it from one weekend of prompts?" i told him Claude doesn't model games. it models markets. the Lakers don't need to be predicted. the Polymarket contract on the Lakers does. when the market is at 62% and my detector says 78%, that's the edge. i never touch the game itself. github.com/Polymarket/age… 3,000+ stars. open source framework. one prompt. 48 hours. 8 detectors running on every sports contract live. last 14 days across NBA playoffs: > 62 contracts entered > 49 winners > +$6,217 net he replied once: "so you arbitraged fan emotion" exactly. fan emotion is a price signal. the market underweights blowouts and overweights narrative. my bot only reads the first one. +$31,447 lifetime. 9 weeks. $1,600 seed. copytrade: @zostaff" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@zostaff he never DM'd again. but his team started a research project on "retail sentiment decay in sports contracts" three weeks later they publish. i'm nine weeks ahead of them.

English
8
1
130
35.4K
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
No one thought bridges was going to make that shot smh
English
0
0
0
186
cc retweetledi
Patricia Marins
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64·
FM Araghchi and MB Ghalibaf Positions Under Fire Just yesterday, the IRGC news agency openly criticized Araghchi on Twitter, exposing internal divisions within Iran’s top leadership. The reality is that neither Araghchi nor MB Ghalibaf responded forcefully enough to refute Trump’s statements throughout the entire day yesterday. Ghalibaf waited until 2 a.m. Iran time to make his tweet after the markets had closed, a highly suspicious move. The IRGC understands that this ambiguity from both weakens Iran’s leverage in the markets, something that is currently unjustifiable. For public criticism of this level to surface, tensions must already be running very high. The next step is likely to be greater distrust and fewer public appearances by both. x.com/tasnimnews_fa/…
English
170
719
4K
446.6K
cc retweetledi
Barak Ravid
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid·
🚨40 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted tonight against supplying bulldozers to the Israeli military 🚨36 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted against supplying bombs to IDF 🚨Not one Democratic Senator considering running for president voted tonight in favor of arms sales to Israel
English
778
1.5K
7.8K
1.3M
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
@dMacro_dBS agree on risk. on rates my thinking if the war is concluding reasonably soon, for the Fed terminal should be the same pre-war just potentially might take longer to get there
English
1
0
1
109
dMacro/dBS
dMacro/dBS@dMacro_dBS·
@cchengasaurus I feel more confident buying the dip in risk markets than rates. I think rates will eventually head lower again (belly led) but will take time…
English
2
0
10
547
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
So risk has rebounded to post war levels, tough spot right now.. will the STIRs and belly catch up on this reversal? Thinking out loud will need to stay long and buy dips incase this gets running
English
4
0
7
1.1K
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
You just don’t want to be like the guy on liberation day convinced rates will stay high forever
English
1
0
4
219
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
The pump schedule moved a few hours later
English
0
0
1
255
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
Probably gonna be some fake resolution over the weekend, followed by Israel bombing something on Monday.
English
1
0
5
312
cc
cc@cchengasaurus·
Ready for the 4pm Axios article
English
0
0
5
157

Keşfet

@Gamma_Blast_ @JeremyWS @BarakRavid @Fullcarry @padadiso @halfkelly @dMacro_dBS @elonmusk