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Cyrill
673 posts
Cyrill
@cermrew
I go from A to Z in illiquid companies below 50mm market cap
HCMC Katılım Nisan 2012
261 Takip Edilen914 Takipçiler
@Michael_Kissig Man sollte beachten, dass ein Großteils des Werts durch teure IPOs geschaffen wurde, nach denen die Käufer erstmal große Verluste erlitten haben. Das könnte bei zukünftigen Börsengängen Skepsis schaffen
Deutsch
#MBB ist Deutschlands heimlicher Börsenstar. Für eine Beteiligungsgesellschaft ist das Unternehmen reichlich inaktiv, aber operativ läuft es hervorragend. Aber Geduld und Disziplin ist keine Ideenlosigkeit und erst recht keine Erfolglosigkeit. Ich hab das Unternehmen seit 2012 auf dem Schirm, als man die Claas Fertigungstechnik übernahm (heute Teil von Aumann). Seitdem hat sich der Umsatz und der Gewinn der MBB vervielfacht und der Aktienkurs ebenfalls. Inklusive Dividenden wurden seit 09/2012 sagenhafte 2.000 % an Rendite erzielt, also 25,5 % pro Jahr. Das ist ein Viertel mehr als Buffett erzielt(e). Ein Blick auf MBB lohnt sich also allemal...
intelligent-investieren.net/2026/02/kissig…
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@InvestSpecial I have been a customer with them, and I highly suggest reading reviews before investing
English
Potential multibagger pitch from Buckley
- $IWG.L transitioning from co-working to annuity-like managed & franchised model
- Shift should drive earnings growth + multiple re-rating
- By 2029 ~70% of revenue will come from M&F
- Peer multiples imply ~30% IRR from today's prices
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@PhilippHaas_ir I considered subscribing for the airport lounge perk, but after doing research it seemed they are not honored. Would probably need to brake out why people are subscribing and if value is given to them
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Travelzoo ($TZOO) – seriously mispriced? Debt-free, ~$65M mcap, trades at ~5x forward earnings. Core biz cyclical → pivoting hard to high-margin subscriptions (Travelzoo Club now ~16% of rev, growing fast). Accounting mismatch: CAC expensed upfront, revenue deferred → margins look ugly now, but flywheel is spinning. Huge upside if sub model scales.
Thoughts? 📈 #valueinvesting #travelstocks
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@Delta9Echo Would you re-follow me so I can send you a message re Anexo please?
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Michelle Jacobs just supported the Rock and Turner Substack via 'Buy me a Coffee'
buymeacoffee.com/rockandturner/…
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@Ben_ValueInvest Yep, but as far as I know nobody held on to the original shares
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Anexo PLC $ANX.L
Received the squeeze-out Note.
1) Anyone know a solicitor who has experience in challenging the price of a squeeze-out?
2) Anyone else still holding the original shares?
x.com/cermrew/status…
Cyrill@cermrew
Sharing my latest investment thesis in Anexo PLC $ANX.L. Fintwit seemed set on a narrative, but I'm presenting a different view of the situation. Potential value was in the fineprint. open.substack.com/pub/cermrew/p/…
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It has been a year, but I still stand by it.
x.com/cermrew/status…
Cyrill@cermrew
🧵 1/14 Usually I do not comment on macro, yet I think it is worth noting: Markets haven't been this expensive since 1999, and three things stand out: - Passive investing dominance - Multi-decade monetary experiment - AI revolution
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Northern Bear ($NTBR.L) has delivered a 38% return since my analysis on Oct 23.
The next stage of value creation hinges entirely on capital deployment. I analyze management's options using the Cost of Capital vs. Return on Capital framework. Link in Bio.
x.com/cermrew/status…
Cyrill@cermrew
My new thesis on Northern Bear PLC #NTBR.L 🐻The activist seeds planted years ago are finally bearing fruit. The transformation is well underway— and the market hasn't noticed yet. open.substack.com/pub/cermrew/p/…
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Sharing my latest investment thesis in Anexo PLC $ANX.L. Fintwit seemed set on a narrative, but I'm presenting a different view of the situation. Potential value was in the fineprint.
open.substack.com/pub/cermrew/p/…
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@antizykliker The fact that they could not recognize the "one-off" as per the accounting rules warrants the question whether it is truly non-recurring or rather managing expecatitions down.
It is time for a buyback.
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Northern Bear $NTBR.L #NTBR.L with a super HY, yet nearly no reaction in the share price. W/o the - this time huge positive - one-off it's 15p EPS, plus 11.7p from the last H2 leading to a PE 4.6 with net cash of 22%/average 16% of MCap.
Nothing to lose with this cheap valuation!
Winter Capital@antizykliker
Northern Bear $NTBR.L #NTBR nearly 2x its EPS to 20p (adj. diluted) - the adjustment makes sense in this case due to a one-off. P/E still 4.7, P/B 0.58, ROE now 17% & ROCE 13.3%. Net cash £2.5m vs. MCap of £13m. Total divi of 3.5p is a bit disappointing. irtools.co.uk/31/story/e33ec…
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$NTBR.L hitting 18-year-high. My estimate for 03/26 is 6mm Cash and EBIT of 4.3mm. All for a price of 16mm today.
x.com/cermrew/status…
Cyrill@cermrew
My new thesis on Northern Bear PLC #NTBR.L 🐻The activist seeds planted years ago are finally bearing fruit. The transformation is well underway— and the market hasn't noticed yet. open.substack.com/pub/cermrew/p/…
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@one_foothurdle Thanks for sharing your calculations, I agree with them. At the end of the day - as you said - the estimate is very sensitive to assumptions of discount rate, holding cost, and residual value.
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@cermrew But with the residual value and maybe a 50% cut in the holding cost there is substantial value for a buyer.
But is a residual value of $10m/plane realistic? Hard to say, but I think so.
If the new owner has a lower cost of capital than 6% there is even more value.
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$DPA.L insider buying bodes well for this liquidation scenario trading at 0.72 P/BV - DP Aircraft
cermrew.substack.com/p/dp-aircraft-…
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@one_foothurdle Hard to be exact here. You can take the reported adjusted NAV and project earnings from Thai Airways until lease expiry. That assumes you trust their estimate of the asset value of the two aircraft. I decided the upside was sufficient to keep holding my shares.
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@cermrew Agree that this is too small of a vehicle to be listed. So I would absolutely vote for an acquisition against a fair value.
What do you see as fair value?
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@netliquidation ... seems a bit lower. However, I think John is at it and is progressing with the divestiture of Peel, and possibly Alcor next. I am curious whether he can take this to 30p EPS!
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@netliquidation Yes, there are some similarities to Kinovo. A lot of the improvement comes from internal self-help measures and I believe John Davies is building a track-record for himself at NTBR as much as David Bullen did at Kinovo. That said, at this point in time business quality in NTBR...
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Nice write-up from Cyrill. Unfortunately I am not able to buy this stock, so I have not looked into it deeper yet. It seems like this is a straight forward investment case. $NTBR.L
Reminds me a tiny bit of $KINO.L
Cyrill@cermrew
My new thesis on Northern Bear PLC #NTBR.L 🐻The activist seeds planted years ago are finally bearing fruit. The transformation is well underway— and the market hasn't noticed yet. open.substack.com/pub/cermrew/p/…
English