Colin Restorick 🇨🇦
4.7K posts

Colin Restorick 🇨🇦
@cgrest
Power Engineer @ Global Cellulose Fibers Grande Prairie Proud Albertan Edmonton Oilers Green Bay Packers Star Trek Railway enthusiast Alt Nation listener.
Grande Prairie, Alberta Katılım Kasım 2011
103 Takip Edilen101 Takipçiler

@theblockspot Up there with the Baltimore Ravens for best start of an expansion franchise
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@tmiranda23 ok, you did it again. Got to work last night around 5:40 MT and you played Neighborhood - Private. Fast forward to around 6am and Kade plays it just as I'm leaving. Evil and hilarious!
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@Martyupnorth I've heard long mononucleosis is a real tough go, but long syphilis is the worst 🤣
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@StinkinGenius1 I know that look. He's hoping you're not judging him 😂
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@DrJStrategy But how many of these AI and tech businesses are just a great story, but have no real strong business and profit case?
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For the record
Markets are not in a bubble. They are being re-rated.
A bubble implies detachment from reality. A re-rating reflects a change in fundamentals. And the fundamentals of the U.S. economy have shifted decisively.
Start with growth. America’s demographic profile is entering a more economically potent phase. A large cohort is moving into prime family formation and peak earning years, driving housing, consumption, and sustained investing flows. That raises the economy’s baseline speed limit in ways most developed economies cannot match.
But the real shift is productivity. Artificial intelligence is a true general-purpose technology, closer to electrification or the internet than a typical cycle. It is compressing costs, expanding margins, and reshaping capital allocation. After years of stagnation, productivity growth is reaccelerating, and doing so alongside an economy deliberately running hot.
That combination is powerful. Strong nominal growth paired with rising productivity is the ideal backdrop for profits. Earnings are not just improving, they are likely to continue surprising to the upside.
Key point: Policy is amplifying the shift. As it did in the 1980s.
Washington is moving back toward supply-side economics: reshoring, industrial policy, and incentives tied to production. The return of full expensing, 100% deductibility of capex until 2031, lowers the cost of investment and pulls spending forward.
This is not a typical cycle. It is the early stage of a capex supercycle, more reminiscent of the postwar buildout of the 1950s or the technology surge of the 1990s than anything in the post-2008 era.
The AI boom also exposes a harder constraint: energy. Compute at scale requires vast, reliable power. Here, the United States is uniquely advantaged. It is a hard resource superpower, with abundant natural gas, growing nuclear capacity, and scalable renewables.
Energy is cheaper and more secure in America than in any other major developed economy. If AI is the next industrial revolution, the U.S. controls a critical input.
All of this feeds directly into valuation. If earnings grow faster, and for longer, than historical norms, multiples must adjust. What looks like excess under old assumptions is rational under new ones.
Even crypto reflects a broader repricing of money itself, introducing alternative rails for collateral, settlement, and liquidity in a more expansive system.
Add it up: prime-age demographics, a productivity boom, a capex supercycle, and abundant energy, all reinforced by policy that favors production and tolerates a hotter economy. The result is structurally higher earnings growth and a secular bull market.
Volatility will come and go. But the direction is clear, due north. Ignore the Doomers.
This is not a bubble. It is a re-rating.
1979👇

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@kurri_jari Honorable mention to Jeff Beukeboom. Just cause that is an epic hockey name.
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@DrJStrategy I will ignore the bear porn lol. But, I will be interested to see how the continuing war on Iran, and how it finally plays out, influences the 8250 year end.
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Food for thought.
Ignore the Bear Porn
The S&P just tagged 7,500 with bottom‑up targets pointing toward 8,250, and the doomer industrial complex still insists we’re one headline away from financial extinction. They traded a modest 10% pullback like it was the dress rehearsal for 2008, then quietly disappeared when the market delivered one of the fastest V‑shaped recoveries in history and went on to make fresh highs.
The story never changes, only the excuse list does.
In a single quarter, they sold investors a “private credit crisis,” declared software structurally doomed by AI, and promoted a Middle East war narrative built around a catastrophically shut Strait of Hormuz. Reality? Credit bent but didn’t break, software is adapting instead of evaporating, the strait is open, and risk assets shook off the scare far faster than the pundit class could draft their next bearish thread.
The market processed the shock, repriced, and moved on; the doomers simply moved the goalposts.
Meanwhile, fundamentals have the audacity to keep improving. Earnings march higher, and bottom‑up targets now point to an equity market that is not priced for fantasy but for solid, compounding cash flows.
A long‑overdue digital‑asset clarity act is finally on the books, yet much of Wall Street still dismisses Bitcoin as a “scam,” recycling a decade‑old insult because they can’t be bothered to update their priors. It is less analysis than superstition, dressed up in finance jargon.
Layer on geopolitics, and the gap between narrative and reality widens. President Trump and his team gets no credit for brokering de‑escalation and energy‑security arrangements that help keep the global system functioning, even as another terrorist is being taken off the board in Africa in real time.
The same commentators who obsess over tail risks refuse to acknowledge when those tails are actively being managed, hedged, or neutralized. Stability is treated as an accident; instability is always assumed to be permanent.
This is the core tell of the modern doomer: they are never graded on outcomes, only on how scary they sounded at the time. They were wrong on the “collapse” of private credit, wrong on AI instantly vaporizing software economics, wrong on a sustained oil chokehold from Hormuz, and they will be just as wrong if their new fetish is a reflexive 20% crash because of a Warsh taking over the Fed. They do not rethink; they rebrand.
What passes for “prudence” in this crowd is really just performative pessimistic “bear porn” for an audience that confuses anxiety with insight. They sell dread, one crisis costume at a time, while price action and cash flows quietly keep contradicting the script.
The job of serious investors is not to react to the fear merchants; it is to notice that the world is messy, risks are real, and yet, somehow, 7,500 on the S&P is telling you the doom machine is not the one in charge.
S&P 500 Target for 2027 10,000. Ignore the Bear Porn.
Have a nice weekend.

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@ShakeP2E @DrJStrategy 6845 Jan 01 to 8250 Dec 31 is not 30%. Do the math.
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@DrJStrategy Bro is targeting a what? 30% gain on the s&p this year? Yeah I'll take top signals for 5000 Alex...
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@DrJStrategy It does make sense. Sadly, until the Impact Assessment Act is repealed, all of this is just good press. Let's see what smart CEO's like the one at Enbridge who got burned do and say.
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Food for thought.
Canada’s Resource Superpower Moment.
Canada is not short of resources. It is short of permission to use them.
That may finally be changing. The Smith-Carney bargain is practical, overdue, and politically shrewd: a Pacific pipeline and Asian market access in exchange for carbon capture and emissions discipline. It is not a textbook first-best. It is something more useful: a way out of paralysis.
Voltaire warned that “the perfect is the enemy of the good”. Lipsey and Lancaster later gave that instinct an economic foundation with the theory of the second best: when the ideal outcome is unavailable, the best policy may require compromise. That is Canada’s energy problem in one sentence.
The first-best policy is obvious: build pipelines, move Alberta crude to global markets, and stop selling a world-class resource at a stranded-barrel discount. But Canada is not a first-best country. It is a federation of regional interests, regulatory bottlenecks, Indigenous consultation obligations, climate politics, and national-unity constraints. In that world, carbon capture is not the prize. Market access is the prize.
Carbon capture is the bridge.
Western Canada Select recently traded at a discount of about $15 per barrel to West Texas Intermediate. Some of that is quality. Much of it is captivity. Alberta sells too much oil into a North American system where U.S. refiners enjoy the power of being the dominant buyer.
A Pacific pipeline changes the game. It would not erase every discount, but it would create a new marginal bid from Asia and, eventually, perhaps Europe. Commodity markets price at the margin. Once Alberta has another customer, U.S. refiners lose part of the captive-supplier discount. Market access reprices the basin, not just the barrels on a ship.
The math is blunt. If the WCS discount narrows from $15 to $10, producers gain roughly $5 per barrel. If it narrows to $8, they gain roughly $7. Even if carbon capture costs producers $2 to $4 per barrel after subsidies and credits, the trade can still work. Captivity is more expensive than carbon capture.
That is why the Smith-Carney approach matters. It turns carbon capture from a symbolic climate exercise into a practical instrument of market access. Done right, with verified emissions reductions, Indigenous participation, private capital, and real pipeline milestones, it aligns climate credibility with national development. That is not capitulation. That is statecraft.
In a world where energy security is paramount, Canada is finally beginning to make industrial policy embrace its own competitive advantage. Yes, it is about time. But there is no time like the present. Democratic allies need secure energy. Asia needs reliable supply. Europe has learned the cost of dependence. Canada has what they need.
The alternative is not ideological purity. It is continued paralysis. Canada has spent years debating whether to be an energy power while others captured the investment, market share, and leverage. This bargain says something different: build, decarbonize where practical, and sell to the world.
The asymmetry is telling. A U.S.-bound project dubbed “Keystone Light” is not being treated like the Pacific pipeline. Existing southbound flows face facility-level emissions rules, but no barrel needs a carbon-capture passport at the border. The Pacific route is different because it is a national market-access bargain: Ottawa gets climate cover; Alberta gets tidewater; Canada gets leverage.
Carbon capture is not magic. It does not solve downstream emissions or justify blank cheques. But as a first step from paralysis to infrastructure, it is worth taking.
Resource superpowers are not built by wishing politics away. They are built by getting things done. Canada has tried paralysis. It is expensive. This bargain may be the beginning of something better.
Mark Carney@MarkJCarney
Today’s agreement between Canada and Alberta will diversify our exports, reduce our emissions, and give investors the certainty they need to build. Together, we’re building a stronger, more prosperous, and more sustainable future for all.
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@charlie_wally @Shamrock2232 @Barkley_Tap Not at all. Why compare him to bums or only look at his Jets career? In the end I'll trust GM John Schneider: punted Carroll to get back control of the team, has had solid drafts, traded Geno, signed Darnold to value contract, and they won the SB.
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@cgrest @Shamrock2232 @Barkley_Tap According to you, Sam Darnold is on a hall of fame trajectory 🤦🏽♂️
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@charlie_wally @Shamrock2232 @Barkley_Tap Well if you can't handle it, move along. You can't seem to acknowledge the fact that the new Sam Darnold isn't the old Sam Darnold. In your mind the Seahawks would have won the SB with Geno Smith LMAO
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@cgrest @Shamrock2232 @Barkley_Tap So now Sam Darnold is in the same conversation as Steve Young, Bret Favre and Kurt Warner 🤔
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@charlie_wally @Shamrock2232 @Barkley_Tap And your family has seen you wearing a diaper. I'm assuming you no longer wear them? And FYI, Steve Young, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner's career didn't start out well either.
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@cgrest @Shamrock2232 @Barkley_Tap I seen Sam Darnold with the Jets and the Panthers. There’s no erasing that
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@Martyupnorth Calgary voted in Nenshi as mayor. THREE FUCKING TIMES.
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@jsharek @JasonGregor Yup. That's why we vote. So politicians can enact policy. You can complain about daylight savings to your content. A year from now nobody will care. You may even find the government actually made the right decision.
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@cgrest @JasonGregor I appreciate how your tone shifted from very high-minded adherence to democratic ideals to “get over it” in a flash, great range
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Of course. Sadly, our provincial government continues to pander to a small, vocal minority.
Polling Canada@CanadianPolling
Alberta - Support For Independence: Oppose: 71% Support: 17% Spark / April 6, 2026 - (Released Today)
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@jsharek @JasonGregor If you are referring to daylight savings, that was 5 years ago. Things change. You vote politicians in to make policy. They did. Everyone crying over 1 hour lol
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