cherryhillbilly

@DrJStrategy @BillAckman @grok tldr

Food for thought. Trump, Hormuz and the End of the Free Ride For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the acute point where energy, sea power and political will intersect. That knowledge is not in dispute. What is new in this war with Iran is that the United States, under Donald Trump, has chosen not to rush to “solve” the problem. In Hegelian terms, he is refusing an easy synthesis in order to force the underlying contradiction to the surface. The old thesis was simple: the US guarantees open sea lanes in the Gulf, and everyone else structures their economies and politics around that free insurance. Europe and the UK embraced ambitious green policies, ran down hard‑power capabilities and lectured Washington on multilateral virtue, secure in the assumption that American carriers would always appear off Hormuz. The political class behaved as if the American security guarantee were a law of nature, not a contingent choice. Their conduct today is closer to Chamberlain than Churchill: temporising, issuing statements, hoping the storm will pass without a fundamental reordering of their responsibilities. Trump’s antithesis is to withhold the automatic guarantee at the moment of maximum stress. Militarily, the US can break Iran’s residual ability to contest the Strait; that is not the binding constraint. The point is to delay that act. By allowing a closure or semi‑closure to bite, Trump ensures that the immediate pain is concentrated in exactly the jurisdictions that have most conspicuously free‑ridden on US power: the EU and the UK. Their industries, consumers and energy‑transition assumptions are exposed. In that context, his reported blunt message to European and British leaders, you need the oil out of the Strait more than we do; why don’t you go and take it? Is not a throwaway line. It is the verbalisation of the antithesis. It openly reverses the traditional presumption that America will carry the burden while its allies emote from the sidelines. In this dialectic, the prize is not simply the reopening of a chokepoint. The prize is a reordered system in which the United States effectively arbitrages and controls the global flow of oil. A world in which US‑aligned production in the Americas plus a discretionary capability to secure,or not secure, Hormuz places Washington at the centre of the hydrocarbon chessboard. For that strategic end, a rapid restoration of the old status quo would be counterproductive. A quick, surgical “fix” of Hormuz would short‑circuit the dialectic. If Trump rapidly crushed Iran’s remaining coastal capabilities, swept the mines and escorted tankers back through the Strait, Europe and the UK would heave a sigh of relief and return to business as usual: underfunded militaries, maximalist green posturing and performative disdain for US power, all underwritten by that same power. The contradiction between their dependence and their posture would remain latent. By declining to supply the synthesis on demand, and by explicitly telling London and Brussels to “go and take it” themselves, Trump forces a reckoning. European and British leaders must confront the fact that their energy systems, their industrial bases and their geopolitical sermons all rest on an American hard‑power foundation they neither finance nor politically respect. The longer the contradiction is allowed to unfold, the stronger the eventual synthesis can be: a new order in which access to secure flows, Hormuz, Venezuela and beyond, is explicitly conditional on real contributions, not assumed as a right. In that sense, the delay in “taking” the Strait, and the challenge issued to US allies to do it themselves, is not indecision. It is the negative moment Hegel insisted was necessary for history to move. Only by withholding the old guarantee, and by saying so out loud to those who depended on it, can Trump hope to end the free ride.

@hajiyev_rashad I hope you’re right but it does look like it wants one more low

This is what I expect silver to do over the coming 2-3 weeks. By end of next week it could reach $80 - 85 area and then by 3rd week of April could be challenging a triple digit figure...

PRO VS NEW TRADER.

@dom_lucre Dude… really? Who fuck cares?

🔥🚨JUST IN: Hollywood actor Will Smith daughter Willow jumped up from lunch with her brother Jaden and walked out the restaurant after fans started recording her which led to Willow feeling uncomfortable.

@silvertrade Great! There goes my Adderall

🚨BREAKING: IRAN HAS BOMBED ISRAEL'S TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY - LARGEST GENERIC RX DRUG MANUFACTURER ON EARTH⚠️ 🚨Secondary explosions were reported, along with chemical leaks as the factory can be seen burning⚠️ MASSIVE GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS‼️ x.com/Darthprophet/s…

I did a deep dive yesterday on this. The ATF may just be saving face after dropping the last case and stating that going forward, they will take it on a case by case basis. Gun owners of America in Texas are in a lawsuit with the DOJ right now. The DOJ wants the case to be dismissed claiming it’s moot but gun owners of America are telling the judge they want it to keep going so that the DOJ can’t even legally say that they will take it on a case by case basis. If it wins that court, it goes up one more level before the Supreme Court. If it gets before the Supreme Court, they can decide whether or not the DOJ can fall back on the old rule or not.

I’ll try to help with this as best I can. The way I understand it is this, no matter what state you live in if there is a brace on your pistol, the ATF may arbitrarily decided one day to prosecute you for that brace claiming (wrongly) that it reclassifies the gun to a short barrel rifle. So in summary I THINK (not a lawyer) this would effect any gun in any state with a stabilizing brace

🚨PSA🚨 GOA is issuing a warning to our members & the pistol brace industry about @theJusticeDept’s latest legal threat to gun owners. We are gravely concerned that @ATFHQ might dare to treat any braced pistol as an illegal short-barreled rifle.

@grok @GunOwners @TheJusticeDept @ATFHQ Fuck

None publicly named in active 2026 cases so far. The only recent example was Taylor Taranto's CZ Scorpion EVO 3 S1 pistol w/ SB Tactical brace, charged as SBR in 2025 (dismissed April under Trump DOJ "in interest of justice"). ATF's Mar 16, 2026 filing in Texas v. ATF confirms they still do case-by-case under the NFA statute: if the braced pistol shows "designed to be fired from the shoulder" (brace surface area, length of pull, sights, marketing, etc.), it can be an SBR despite vacatur. For your NJ "other," request an ATF classification letter or see a firearms attorney/FFL. Enforcement remains spotty.

@grok @GunOwners @TheJusticeDept @ATFHQ @grok which braced pistols, if any yet, have they called an sbr?

ATF classifies independently of NJ "other" rules (OAL 26"+, pinned brace, VFG, barrel <16"). They can still call it an SBR if the config shows it's "designed to be fired from the shoulder" under GCA/NFA—e.g., brace provides shoulder surface area, rifle-like length of pull/weight, sights needing shouldering, or community use/marketing suggests rifle intent. Recent DOJ filing (Mar 2026) confirms they enforce this case-by-case on some braced pistols despite rule vacatur. Enforcement varies; get ATF letter or lawyer review for your build.

@grok @GunOwners @TheJusticeDept @ATFHQ @grok What would make them call it an sbr if it fits the guidelines of an other

This GOA alert flags ATF/DOJ continuing to treat some braced pistols as illegal SBRs under NFA, even post-vacatur and despite pinned/fixed setups. NJ "other" firearms (OAL 26"+, brace not stock, VFG, barrel <16") skirt the state AWB but don't override federal classification. If ATF calls your pinned-brace PCC an SBR, NJ law treats it as prohibited sawed-off shotgun (up to 5 yrs prison). Risk is real but enforcement spotty. Consult a NJ firearms attorney/FFL for your exact config.

@grok @GunOwners @TheJusticeDept @ATFHQ What would make them call it an sbr if it fits the guidelines of an other

@DeItaone @grok have they made good on this threat yet?

🚨 IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY THEY WILL TARGET U.S. INDUSTRIES IN THE REGION IN COMING HOURS, ASK PEOPLE TO EVACUATE NEARBY AREAS - TASNIM NEWS AGENCY

@DVSignals Because of a short term trend line break?

$GOLD Too many people get married to a chart or a commodity. Don’t... Simple exercise: ask yourself this; if I were completely new to this chart, didn’t know the ticker, didn’t know the narrative, and only had a basic understanding of structure… would I buy this here, yes or no? That question alone filters out a lot of emotional nonsense.

@thatdayin1992 So weird. Didn’t Mohamed say the age of consent was 3?

Iranians continue to roast Americans with high quality trolling: "Vaccines for pedophiles"

BREAKING: Wife of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is alive, Iranian state media confirms.

I just got a text from someone surveying people about the current situation in regards to support of Israel. I usually don’t respond to these messages, but tonight I did. Here’s what I said: Sure. I think there's more than one problem in the world. Iran, and anyone who believes in "death to America" is certainly one of them. Overthrowing the irgc will stifle the flow of funding to other global terrorist organizations. I'm 100% behind this. However, when this is done we need to get Israel out of American politics. I have a question for you, why is it that our Christian politicians will visit the wall and even wear the little hat but you will never see the same religious participation from Jews? I don't believe Jews are gods chosen people unless they accept Christ. The complete propaganda that has been used by the Jews to manipulate 20th century Christians is diabolical. 1 John 2:23 "Whoever denies the Son does not have the Father; whoever confesses the Son has the Father also." How did the Jews convince the Christians to deny the teachings of the New Testament? I'm not even religious and that disgusts me! There is nothing superior about any race or ethnicity. It's apparent by the over representation of Jews in high positions of authority in American institutions that their goal is to infiltrate and control. This is a national security threat and it needs to end. Let’s be allies, but let’s not think that Americans are stupid. #IranWar‌

@MasterMaliq You mean the symbol of suppression sundress in dirty sweaty matte black?

Serious question. What danger exactly does a woman in a burqa pose to the community?

@BRICSinfo 😂😂😂

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran says "you cannot start a war and then demand a ceasefire whenever you want." "Our armed forces are determined to teach the enemy a lesson they will never forget."

@ProudSocialist wtf? He has options. Why is that cowardice

BREAKING: Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz announces he is leaving Seattle and moving to Miami. This comes on the SAME DAY Washington state passed a 9.9% “millionaires tax” on incomes over $1 million. Billionaires would rather run away like cowards than pay their fair share.