Choppa
1.7K posts


Thrilled to have Heated Rivalry author Rachel Reid with us to celebrate our Pride game tonight!
#GoSensGo

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@adamlevitan wait is that an actual advantage-based strategy by beating the live stream latency that most of the traders rely on?
asking for a friend of course
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Buddy, these guys are front-running live betting markets. (Sorry I mean “market making) (Sorry I mean “providing liquidity”)
Front Office Sports@FOS
The Cubs broadcast showed fans working remotely from Wrigley Field during the team's day game 💻
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@NathanMeininger This guy has a higher PnL then you ever will.
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Imagine risking nearly $20k to make $400, whales like this don’t stay whales for long
PredictionMarketTrader@PredMTrader
DON’T DO IT TRUMP
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A mostly reasonable request from the NFL, and glad they are proactive about this. Prediction markets should focus on making markets on topics that are important.
What announcers say during games or whether "celebrities" attend games -- excluding Trump and Taylor Swift -- only become "important" because of the existence of the market. If you don't have a bet on it, it's not important in the slightest.
And the NFL is exactly correct that they're easily manipulated. When an event is not important, there's 0 real world impact whatsoever if you 'rigged' one of them. And one of the pointless celebrity markets was already manipulated for profit: Mark Wahlberg attending the Super Bowl (which further involved one of his children being harassed afterwards by the idiots who got tricked into betting Yes). Why would the NFL want to be anywhere near headlines like that...? It's toxic stupidity.
But the NFL is very wrong about the draft/coaching changes. Those are extremely important events that permanently alter the fates of franchises. A busted pick can ruin your season before it even starts (or even multiple seasons). A bad coaching decision can do the same thing. Not only that, but there are millions of words of content and hundreds of thousands of hours of radio/TV devoted to discussing these topics. The NFL Draft is one of the most discussed events on the planet lol. And NFL coaches can be paid $20m/year now!
It is totally sensible to have markets on the draft/coaching, both in the sense of predicting something important, but also as a source of relevant information that can be digested by & communicated to people that care about the answer.
David Payne Purdum@DavidPurdum
The NFL sent letters to prediction market operators on Sunday, asking them to refrain from offering trades on events that can be easily manipulated or determined in advance, including what announcers say during broadcasts, which celebrities attend games and the upcoming draft.
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Awesome pick-up on Leavitt this morning!
Biggest win was App N -> it got way over bought at 85c.
Was a bit spooked bc a few sharps I knew liked it, but my research suggested it was pretty unlikely to come up.
Incorrectly thought she'd yap longer, so gave some of this back to @MentionMetrix Ave on the 'how long' :( -$200 to your bank acct

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@radarmentions No shade! Didn’t watch the podcast I’ll give it a listen
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@radarmentions Ahhh yeah I didn’t see that. No shade thrown. I just don’t see the value over 100s of bets that high
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@choppaxyz Oh you were prob being serious. I jsut recently posted my breakdown p&l in podcast episode right after a misbond mistake. So I was up +$6k but back to even I think.
I hate bonding fwiw
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@rontro28 @benwfreeman1 It turns out leveling entire populations to a parking lot isn’t very popular, shocker!
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@benwfreeman1 Antisemtism has had a huge resurgence since Oct 7., that's for sure. Found a neat explanation for this phenomenon on sustack.
Whats the percentage of dem voters that are "anti-israel", neutral or rather supportive? What is your guess?
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@benwfreeman1 Great alpha! Do you think Kelly has enough popularity to pull any sizable vote away from Stratton?
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Sarah Longwell’s Focus Group is one of my favorite podcasts.
Listening to real voters, how they feel about certain candidates, and what messages resonate with them is incredibly informative.
This definitely helps my trading strategy for the Illinois Dem Senate Primary
Sarah Longwell@SarahLongwell25
This week on the Focus Group Pod @davidaxelrod joins to listen to voters in Illinois about their upcoming Democratic Senate primary. youtube.com/watch?v=OltR40…
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The University of Florida was recently informed by the Florida Federation of College Republicans (FFCR) that it has disbanded the local chapter of College Republicans (the Local CR). This request is based on the FFCR’s findings that some Local CR members engaged in a pattern of conduct that violated its rules and values, including a recent antisemitic gesture. The FFCR also requested that the university deactivate the Local CR as a registered student organization while it looks to reorganize and pursue reinstatement under new student leadership.
The University of Florida has emphatically supported its Jewish community and remains committed to preventing and addressing antisemitism and other forms of discrimination and harassment that are threatening and disruptive to our students and to the teaching, research and expressive activities of the campus community. The university also supports the rights of organizations, such as the FFCR, to take decisive action in addressing conduct that is antithetical to its principles.
In compliance with its policies, the University of Florida is in the process of deactivating the Local CR as a registered student organization. When the FFCR is ready, the university will also assist it with reactivating the Local CR under new student leadership.
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@stevebrubaker @benwfreeman1 I don’t think Strattons voter base is as inclined to answer polling
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@benwfreeman1 Latest Polling
Krishnamoorthi 46%
Juliana Stratton20%
Robin Kelly16%
Your PM is off on Kelly. She probably cannot win, but she can certainly pull a congressional district full of votes away from Stratton.
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