CJ Hash

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CJ Hash

CJ Hash

@cjh4sh

Wealth through code. Live through speculation. Obsess with markets. NFA | DYOR

TradingView Katılım Ağustos 2017
282 Takip Edilen181 Takipçiler
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
The Rules of Speculation Rule One: Never put yourself in a position in which unforeseen events would wipe out your entire portfolio Rule Two: Use leverage only when it does not violate Rule One Rule Three: Never trade when you can lose more than you can make
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@ThierryBorgeat Maybe it is a natural evolution. AI isn’t a problem. AI is a democratization of knowledge. The reason doctors and lawers get paid so much is they acquire high expertise that has high demand. Well, maybe its time to rethink that
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
This is it. Everyone is excited about AI. I'm not. AI is the biggest commoditizer of human capability we have ever built. Doctors earn more than cleaners because expertise takes a decade to acquire and judgment to apply. AI is going to make most of that expertise available to anyone, at marginal cost. The gap doesn't go to zero. But it shrinks. And the same thing happens in almost every knowledge profession. Programmers. Lawyers. Analysts. Traders. Designers. The taxi driver replaced by a robotaxi is the easy case. The harder ones are people who spent twenty years training to do something a model can now do in a second. The one corner of human life I don't see this hitting is sport. Nobody pays to watch a robot beat a human. The whole appeal is humans competing against each other. That's why nobody watches Deep Blue play chess anymore. From an investing perspective, the next decade plays out in three phases. Phase 1 is the buildout. Hundreds of billions in capex on chips, data centers, and energy. This is what's driving today's market. Phase 2 is the deployment. Productivity rises sharply, then deflation sets in as the cost of knowledge work collapses. Jobs disappear faster than the economy can replace them. Phase 3 is the social adjustment. Capital becomes more powerful than labor. The biggest winners are likely to sit where AI cannot reach. Real assets. Energy. Commodities. Precious metals. Scarce land. And there's something deeper than the economics. The Japanese have a word for it: ikigai. The reason you get up in the morning. Your vocation. Your purpose. The work that makes you feel needed. AI is coming for that too. Nobody has yet figured out what a healthy society does when most of its members no longer feel needed by anything. I might be wrong. I hope I am. If I'm not, the world is about to change faster than most people are ready for.
Deedy@deedydas

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation). Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. As a result, 1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb. Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more. 2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future). Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire" 3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed. Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies. 4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either. No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money." I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here. Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success". Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@cryptorover Well they are also going long $GLD. Maybe they are onto something there
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Crypto Rover
Crypto Rover@cryptorover·
BREAKING: 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 CHINA IS DUMPING U.S. TREASURIES, WITH HOLDINGS FALLING TO THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. This is absolutely insane. $693B left. Down from $1.3T at the 2013 peak. Meanwhile, the PBOC just stretched its gold-buying streak to 17 straight months. They're not panicking. They're rotating.
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Michal Malewicz
Michal Malewicz@michalmalewicz·
Just a reminder: the AI industry is a bubble. AI itself is not a bubble, it's just a really cool search engine. Useful for some stuff.
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@JUST_KAWS Sad reality trading and stock picking will blow most portfolios up. Someone young beter off focusing on good education, career and putting money aside into ETFs. Statistically way higher chance of building wealth
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JUST KAWS
JUST KAWS@JUST_KAWS·
HOT TAKE: Index funds are great if you already have wealth But if you’re still building it, a 6% annual return isn’t going to change your life When you’re young, the real opportunity is finding the stocks that 10x That’s how wealth actually gets made Agree or disagree?
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Whale Insider
Whale Insider@WhaleInsider·
JUST IN: Fed to inject $6,576,000,000 into the market tomorrow.
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@ballsack698121 @WhaleInsider I suggest you study what these injections are. Stocks prices go up when others buy stock not just by default when bank liquidity increases. While it is bullish news, these injections aren't buying stocks assets directly
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@YodaStockInvest $MSFT strong action on Friday sell off. Looks like it might start picking up an uptrend
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YodaStocks
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest·
What’s a stock that’s STILL down big that you’re picking up right now?
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
ETFs that look interesting for the next week: $IGV, $SKYY, $TAN, $BOTZ, $CIBR
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@tymotauro @rohanpaul_ai Have tried agentic OS/dashboard. Try it and you will know what i am talking about. Its really cool
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Rohan Paul
Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai·
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei : "Software is going to become cheap, maybe essentially free. The premise that you need to amortize a piece of software you build across millions of users, that may start to be false. But at the same time, there are whole jobs, whole careers that we've built for decades that may not be present. And, you know, I think we can deal with it. I think we can adjust to it. But I don't, I don't think there's an awareness at all of what, of what is coming here and the magnitude of it." --- From "The Wall Street Journal" YT channel (link in comment)
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@DudeWhoInvests Are they worth it if their business models might become obsolete? Imho, out if all these i like soft + infrastructure. $MSFT, $ORCL really stand out
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Just a Dude Who Invests
Just a Dude Who Invests@DudeWhoInvests·
Popular software stocks FWD P/E ratios: • $MSFT (Microsoft): 22x • $CRM (Salesforce): 13x • $ADBE (Adobe): 11x • $NOW (ServiceNow): 22x • $ORCL (Oracle): 24x • $INTU (Intuit): 15x • $PLTR (Palantir): 95x • $SAP (SAP SE): 20x • $SNOW (Snowflake): 85x • $CRWD (CrowdStrike): 115x What stands out? Adobe is at 11x… 😮
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
@cryptorover Market mechanics at play. If it were that easy oil up stocks down there would not be a market
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Crypto Rover
Crypto Rover@cryptorover·
How the f*ck is this even possible. - Oil is up +84% YTD - Simultaneously the stock market is at all time highs - And the 30Y Treasuries are above 5% One of you is WRONG.
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
$XLE Looks like it wants to test new heights. Strong performance on Friday when semis were deep in red
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
Number of stocks below their 50 MA and 200 MA are starting to take a nosedive
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
Bond yields and volatility are going up
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CJ Hash
CJ Hash@cjh4sh·
$SPY Market breadth continues to deteriorate. Time to reduce risk and proceed with caution.
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